kiwibird
Editor, Senior Moderator
http://www.optuszoo.com.au/channel/...one-in-five-as-virus-continues-to-spread.html
News
Top Stories / Brisbane Times
Swine flu to hit one in five as virus continues to spread
May 28, 2009 6:15am
Swine flu is now expected to infect one in five Australians this winter, costing the economy double the price of seasonal flu, authorities say.
SWINE flu is expected to infect one in five Australians, threatening lives and costing the economy double the price of seasonal flu, authorities said yesterday.
As the number of infected Australians climbed to 67 cases last night, with 34 in Victoria, experts warned that for every person infected, another 10 would now be carrying the highly contagious virus.
Federal Health Minister Nicola Roxon said yesterday the H1N1 virus had "taken hold" and that the Government was assessing new measures to contain it.
"The community does have to prepare itself for there to be a significant increase in the numbers of cases confirmed," she said.
Robert Booy, of the University of Sydney, said the number of people infected could be as high as 1000. And that could climb to tens of thousands within weeks. He said he expected swine flu deaths, with the victims likely to be people with chronic conditions.
"Once it starts to infect hundreds of thousands, we will see deaths," he said.
Every year, about 2500 Australians die from seasonal flu.
Victoria's acting chief health officer, Rosemary Lester, said the virus could infect 20 per cent of the population, or about fourmillion people.
"We know there are cases out there in the community, and the numbers will continue to spread," she said.
The spread of the virus is prompting many families to pay $100 for their own tests, and more again for anti-viral medication. Several GPs have told Fairfax they are annoyed at the guidelines, which say that someone has to have either been overseas recently or had contact with a confirmed case to get free testing and free anti-virals.
As the Victorian Government opened a new "overflow" flu clinic at the Royal Children's Hospital, Premier John Brumby warned year 12 students to limit socialising before June exams.
"If you've got a year 12 student and you've got exams coming up, I wouldn't have them out at the weekends in too many embraces with other people and bodily contact and things like that," he said.
Epidemiologist Professor Raina MacIntyre, a member of the Pandemic Influenza Advisory Group, said banning sportingevents, concerts and other mass gatherings should be considered.
"You really have to implement those social-distancing measures right at the beginning of the epidemic for them to be effective, and they can be highly effective," said Professor MacIntyre.
Dr Jodie McVernon, a pediatrician from the University of Melbourne, who has been modelling the virus for the FederalGovernment, also said parents should stock up on nonperishables in case they found themselves in quarantine.
But a Victorian Government spokesman said that, while the state's pandemic plan included social-distancing measures such as bans on sporting events and advising workers to stay home, it was not taking this action yet. Nor was it recommending stockpiling food.
Public concern prompted a dramatic increase in calls to the national hotline yesterday, with about 1500 reported. Butexperts said that, to date, most Australian cases had been mild and a vaccine should be ready by late July or early August.
Children under the age of 18 are most at risk, with adults, particularly those over 65, showing some immunity.
Professor Booy said it was possible for a person to catch the seasonal flu and swine flu, which did not necessarily makefor an illness twice as bad. He said one in 20 children who presented to hospitals with a virus had two viruses.
"We donâ't know that having two infections would be worse," he said.
Australian National University economist Warwick McKibbin said that although the flu each year has a $1 billion impact on the Australian economy, the cost of swine flu would reach about $2 billion. This was based on an assumption that itcontinues to result in comparatively few deaths and that any measures stopping people going to work were voluntary.
While authorities have recommended home quarantining for some people potentially affected, they may need to considerencouraging others to isolate themselves.
"It's a difficult policy dilemma because social distancing is the biggest part of the cost of a mild pandemic: the fact that you're reducing activity in the economy. So the question is, is it better to just let it go through the population, dealwith it, and let people continue to work? The economic costs of that are far less."
But he said the risk of deaths made it difficult to rely only on a purely economic analysis in deciding policy.
"The dilemma is how much you're willing to pay to save a life."
The Department of Human Services yesterday temporarily closed a McDonaldâ's store in Melbourne's Epping because of an infected employee.
Melbourne Girls College, Gilson College, Roxburgh Park Primary, Thomastown Secondary College and Peter Lalor Secondary College were all notified of one case each yesterday. Thornbury High and Mill Park Secondary College remain closed, while Clifton Hill Primary will reopen today.
With BRIDIE SMITH, NICK MILLER
Article from: Brisbane Times
News
Top Stories / Brisbane Times
Swine flu to hit one in five as virus continues to spread
May 28, 2009 6:15am
Swine flu is now expected to infect one in five Australians this winter, costing the economy double the price of seasonal flu, authorities say.
SWINE flu is expected to infect one in five Australians, threatening lives and costing the economy double the price of seasonal flu, authorities said yesterday.
As the number of infected Australians climbed to 67 cases last night, with 34 in Victoria, experts warned that for every person infected, another 10 would now be carrying the highly contagious virus.
Federal Health Minister Nicola Roxon said yesterday the H1N1 virus had "taken hold" and that the Government was assessing new measures to contain it.
"The community does have to prepare itself for there to be a significant increase in the numbers of cases confirmed," she said.
Robert Booy, of the University of Sydney, said the number of people infected could be as high as 1000. And that could climb to tens of thousands within weeks. He said he expected swine flu deaths, with the victims likely to be people with chronic conditions.
"Once it starts to infect hundreds of thousands, we will see deaths," he said.
Every year, about 2500 Australians die from seasonal flu.
Victoria's acting chief health officer, Rosemary Lester, said the virus could infect 20 per cent of the population, or about fourmillion people.
"We know there are cases out there in the community, and the numbers will continue to spread," she said.
The spread of the virus is prompting many families to pay $100 for their own tests, and more again for anti-viral medication. Several GPs have told Fairfax they are annoyed at the guidelines, which say that someone has to have either been overseas recently or had contact with a confirmed case to get free testing and free anti-virals.
As the Victorian Government opened a new "overflow" flu clinic at the Royal Children's Hospital, Premier John Brumby warned year 12 students to limit socialising before June exams.
"If you've got a year 12 student and you've got exams coming up, I wouldn't have them out at the weekends in too many embraces with other people and bodily contact and things like that," he said.
Epidemiologist Professor Raina MacIntyre, a member of the Pandemic Influenza Advisory Group, said banning sportingevents, concerts and other mass gatherings should be considered.
"You really have to implement those social-distancing measures right at the beginning of the epidemic for them to be effective, and they can be highly effective," said Professor MacIntyre.
Dr Jodie McVernon, a pediatrician from the University of Melbourne, who has been modelling the virus for the FederalGovernment, also said parents should stock up on nonperishables in case they found themselves in quarantine.
But a Victorian Government spokesman said that, while the state's pandemic plan included social-distancing measures such as bans on sporting events and advising workers to stay home, it was not taking this action yet. Nor was it recommending stockpiling food.
Public concern prompted a dramatic increase in calls to the national hotline yesterday, with about 1500 reported. Butexperts said that, to date, most Australian cases had been mild and a vaccine should be ready by late July or early August.
Children under the age of 18 are most at risk, with adults, particularly those over 65, showing some immunity.
Professor Booy said it was possible for a person to catch the seasonal flu and swine flu, which did not necessarily makefor an illness twice as bad. He said one in 20 children who presented to hospitals with a virus had two viruses.
"We donâ't know that having two infections would be worse," he said.
Australian National University economist Warwick McKibbin said that although the flu each year has a $1 billion impact on the Australian economy, the cost of swine flu would reach about $2 billion. This was based on an assumption that itcontinues to result in comparatively few deaths and that any measures stopping people going to work were voluntary.
While authorities have recommended home quarantining for some people potentially affected, they may need to considerencouraging others to isolate themselves.
"It's a difficult policy dilemma because social distancing is the biggest part of the cost of a mild pandemic: the fact that you're reducing activity in the economy. So the question is, is it better to just let it go through the population, dealwith it, and let people continue to work? The economic costs of that are far less."
But he said the risk of deaths made it difficult to rely only on a purely economic analysis in deciding policy.
"The dilemma is how much you're willing to pay to save a life."
The Department of Human Services yesterday temporarily closed a McDonaldâ's store in Melbourne's Epping because of an infected employee.
Melbourne Girls College, Gilson College, Roxburgh Park Primary, Thomastown Secondary College and Peter Lalor Secondary College were all notified of one case each yesterday. Thornbury High and Mill Park Secondary College remain closed, while Clifton Hill Primary will reopen today.
With BRIDIE SMITH, NICK MILLER
Article from: Brisbane Times
