Old mortality graph for 1918

[Mingus]

______________________________________________________________

 

[KC]

Re: Old mortality graph for 1918

Thank you Mingus for the graph. It is very interesting and educational.

If I am reading it correctly, the first wave that hit Boston in September/October 1918 took the lives of 5,700 people out of 100,000? That would be nearly a 6% death rate from the first wave in this area.

Second, it would appear that the current H5N1 deaths are closely following the age curve of the 1918 pandemic, as observed in Boston. Specifically, the majority of the deaths (at least from this data) were less than 38-40 years of age.

Mingus, are there any additional charts for the Boston area covering successive waves and/or a written description of the charts purpose?

 

[Mingus]

Re: Old mortality graph for 1918

KC, I think the Sept-oct was the second wave wich was the most lethal.

At that time the virus has return from europe.

The first wave hit during the spring and summer and was less lethal.

BTW, I found this old chart picture by chance while looking for funny picture about pandemic in google image...

 

[Mingus]

Re: Old mortality graph for 1918

I strongly suggest you to read

1: Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Jan;12(1):15-22. Related Articles, Links

1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics.

Taubenberger JK, Morens DM.

Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rockville, Maryland 20850-3125, USA. taubenberger@afip.osd.mil

The "Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, which caused approximately 50 million deaths worldwide, remains an ominous warning to public health. Many questions about its origins, its unusual epidemiologic features, and the basis of its pathogenicity remain unanswered. The public health implications of the pandemic therefore remain in doubt even as we now grapple with the feared emergence of a pandemic caused by H5N1 or other virus. However, new information about the 1918 virus is emerging, for example, sequencing of the entire genome from archival autopsy tissues. But, the viral genome alone is unlikely to provide answers to some critical questions. Understanding the 1918 pandemic and its implications for future pandemics requires careful experimentation and in-depth historical analysis.

Publication Types:

* Historical Article


PMID: 16494711 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

This is the best situationnal article about the 1918 pandemic I read so far and it is very accessible.

Saddly, I just can't find the complete article again.
I read it in January don't remember where I find it.

Does someone here have acces to ?

 

[Mingus]

Re: Old mortality graph for 1918

Ok! this is there

http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache...er+of+all+pandemics.&hl=fr&gl=ca&ct=clnk&cd=2

But try the PDF it is nicer if your cumputer don't crash
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no01/pdfs/05-0979.pdf

 

[Mingus]

Re: Old mortality graph for 1918

In the 1918–1919 pandemic, a first or spring wave
began in March 1918 and spread unevenly through the
United States, Europe, and possibly Asia over the next 6
months (Figure 1). Illness rates were high, but death rates
in most locales were not appreciably above normal. A sec-
ond or fall wave spread globally from September to
November 1918 and was highly fatal. In many nations, a
third wave occurred in early 1919 (21).

_____________________________________________

 

[KC]

Re: Old mortality graph for 1918

Thanks Mingus.

In the 1918?1919 pandemic, a first or spring wave
began in March 1918 and spread unevenly through the
United States, Europe, and possibly Asia over the next 6
months (Figure 1).

I read something like that also. I haven't been able to find much information on how some major cities such as Boston or San Francisco recorded the morbidity or mortality of the "first wave". I also wonder if the supposed "first wave" in some (or many areas) was not just waning seasonal flu that resulted in "normal" amounts of "pneumonia related deaths"?

As Dr.'s Taubenberger and Morens said:

Understanding the 1918 pandemic and its implications for future pandemics requires careful experimentation and in-depth historical analysis.