Oil Tanker Seizure Signals Threat to Crude Supply Line
by Anthony L. Kimery
Wednesday, 19 November 2008
Terrorism-tied Pirates' attack set off alarm bells at Pentagon
Two months ago, HSToday.us reported that military Special Forces counterterror (CT) operatives attached to the US African Command (AFRICOM) headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany warned that Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda-influenced fundamentalist Muslim jihadists in Africa are becoming an increasingly serious terrorist threat that has forced much greater attention to be focused on the region.
?There are some very serious bad guys and bad players there,? one of the officials candidly said during interviews in Switzerland.
US Intelligence Community (IC) and private sector CT intelligence analysts were warning in October and early November that there was a strong possibility that Horn of Africa-based terrorist-linked pirates would attack or seize ?highly-prized? maritime vessels.
This week, the threat that CT analysts believed months ago was posed by Islamist-linked pirates in Africa - specifically the Horn of Africa along the Gulf of Aden ? manifested in a spectacular way. Indeed. Somalia terrorist-linked pirates seized a Saudi oil super-tanker bound for the United States laden with two million barrels of crude, or more than a quarter of the daily exports from Saudi Arabia worth an estimated $100 million.
The Gulf of Aden is a vital global energy corridor for about 13 percent of Middle East oil on its way west. Super-tankers holding 3.3 million barrels of crude, or nearly four percent of daily global demand, traverse these increasingly dangerous waters each day, with the largest super-tankers from the world?s principal oil-producing regions using the route from the Arabian Gulf to the Cape of Good Hope deliver oil to Europe and North America.
CT analysts told HSToday.us that the impact of this attack ?won?t be lost on Al Qaeda and its kin in the region.?
Indeed, as HSToday.us has reported, Al Qaeda has repeatedly threatened to cripple America?s, and the West?s, supply lines for Middle East crude. For a sobering look at the possibility and impact of a prolonged disruption of foreign oil imports to the US, see the HSToday.us report, ?Oil Disruptions Threaten National Security.?
Although the relatively small amount of oil that?s been taken of the market by the Somali pirates? seizure of the Sirius Star (operated by Vela International Marine, the shipping arm of Saudi Aramco) caused the price of a barrel of oil to rise only a little more than a dollar, Al Qaeda undoubtedly is calculating what the aggregate impact would be from the seizure - or sinking - of ?a number? of supertankers over a prolonged period of time. CT operatives wonder what if more oil tankers are seized by the terrorist-tied pirates? Or what if hardened jihadists emboldened by how easy the seizure was decide to begin sinking oil tankers?
CT authorities also are concerned that seized ships could be outfitted with high explosives or even nuclear or radiological weapons capable of being detonated once in a Western port. Whether such an attack is attempted or not, all released seized ships will have to be thoroughly examined for potential weapons of mass destruction.
?This is not a terrorist act ? although I?m sure Al Qaeda will have taken note of the inherent vulnerability of the strategic asset seized by the pirates,? said Jason Alderwick, a maritime defense analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
?It certainly represents a fundamental change in the pirates? ability to be able to attack vessels out to sea,? said Navy Lieutenant Nathan Christensen, a spokesman for the Bahrain-based US Fifth Fleet. ?This is unprecedented. It's the largest ship that we've seen pirated.?
Somali pirates have already successfully seriously disrupted this important global oceanic shipping lane.
They?ve attacked dozens of vessels and taken hundreds of crew members hostage since July, according to the International Maritime Bureau. And, they?ve profited to the tune of perhaps as much as $50 million in ransom for some of the seized ships and their crews. And some of the money is suspected of being siphoned off to Al Qaeda cells in Somalia, which are said to have operational ties to the terrorist group?s organizational leaders in Pakistan.
Despite what seasoned military CT intelligence analysts had been warning about internally, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen said he was "stunned" by the seizure of the oil super-tanker. Mullen conceded that ?we've seen an extraordinary rise" in attacks and that he?s ?extremely concerned by the overall number? of attacks.
The oil-tanker seizure has set off alarm bells at the Pentagon and inside the Bush administration, which in the last several days has made it a priority to provide the latest intelligence on the situation to President-elect Barack Obama and his national security transition advisors - especially intelligence indicating possible larger-scale terrorist plots to sink oil super-tankers, which Al Qaeda has made clear are targets.
Should enough oil tankers be seized or destroyed to cause an appreciable rise in crude prices or significantly disrupt domestic and Western supplies, the West would be faced with taking military naval action - perhaps even air and ground assaults.
For more than a decade, counterterrorists have warned about the growing influence of fundamental Islamists in the Horn of Africa. They've long feared that their expansion in the region could create a breeding ground for jihadist terrorism. During the 1990s, Sudan openly provided a safe haven for Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda, which by the mid-90?s had expanded into Somalia.
CT authorities say the recent standing up of AFRICOM was long overdue, and hope that it will be empowered to take a tougher military ? covert and otherwise ? role in combating Horn of Africa piracy, especially the pirates' linked to Al Qaeda and jihadist terror movements.
http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/6126/128/
by Anthony L. Kimery
Wednesday, 19 November 2008
Terrorism-tied Pirates' attack set off alarm bells at Pentagon
Two months ago, HSToday.us reported that military Special Forces counterterror (CT) operatives attached to the US African Command (AFRICOM) headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany warned that Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda-influenced fundamentalist Muslim jihadists in Africa are becoming an increasingly serious terrorist threat that has forced much greater attention to be focused on the region.
?There are some very serious bad guys and bad players there,? one of the officials candidly said during interviews in Switzerland.
US Intelligence Community (IC) and private sector CT intelligence analysts were warning in October and early November that there was a strong possibility that Horn of Africa-based terrorist-linked pirates would attack or seize ?highly-prized? maritime vessels.
This week, the threat that CT analysts believed months ago was posed by Islamist-linked pirates in Africa - specifically the Horn of Africa along the Gulf of Aden ? manifested in a spectacular way. Indeed. Somalia terrorist-linked pirates seized a Saudi oil super-tanker bound for the United States laden with two million barrels of crude, or more than a quarter of the daily exports from Saudi Arabia worth an estimated $100 million.
The Gulf of Aden is a vital global energy corridor for about 13 percent of Middle East oil on its way west. Super-tankers holding 3.3 million barrels of crude, or nearly four percent of daily global demand, traverse these increasingly dangerous waters each day, with the largest super-tankers from the world?s principal oil-producing regions using the route from the Arabian Gulf to the Cape of Good Hope deliver oil to Europe and North America.
CT analysts told HSToday.us that the impact of this attack ?won?t be lost on Al Qaeda and its kin in the region.?
Indeed, as HSToday.us has reported, Al Qaeda has repeatedly threatened to cripple America?s, and the West?s, supply lines for Middle East crude. For a sobering look at the possibility and impact of a prolonged disruption of foreign oil imports to the US, see the HSToday.us report, ?Oil Disruptions Threaten National Security.?
Although the relatively small amount of oil that?s been taken of the market by the Somali pirates? seizure of the Sirius Star (operated by Vela International Marine, the shipping arm of Saudi Aramco) caused the price of a barrel of oil to rise only a little more than a dollar, Al Qaeda undoubtedly is calculating what the aggregate impact would be from the seizure - or sinking - of ?a number? of supertankers over a prolonged period of time. CT operatives wonder what if more oil tankers are seized by the terrorist-tied pirates? Or what if hardened jihadists emboldened by how easy the seizure was decide to begin sinking oil tankers?
CT authorities also are concerned that seized ships could be outfitted with high explosives or even nuclear or radiological weapons capable of being detonated once in a Western port. Whether such an attack is attempted or not, all released seized ships will have to be thoroughly examined for potential weapons of mass destruction.
?This is not a terrorist act ? although I?m sure Al Qaeda will have taken note of the inherent vulnerability of the strategic asset seized by the pirates,? said Jason Alderwick, a maritime defense analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
?It certainly represents a fundamental change in the pirates? ability to be able to attack vessels out to sea,? said Navy Lieutenant Nathan Christensen, a spokesman for the Bahrain-based US Fifth Fleet. ?This is unprecedented. It's the largest ship that we've seen pirated.?
Somali pirates have already successfully seriously disrupted this important global oceanic shipping lane.
They?ve attacked dozens of vessels and taken hundreds of crew members hostage since July, according to the International Maritime Bureau. And, they?ve profited to the tune of perhaps as much as $50 million in ransom for some of the seized ships and their crews. And some of the money is suspected of being siphoned off to Al Qaeda cells in Somalia, which are said to have operational ties to the terrorist group?s organizational leaders in Pakistan.
Despite what seasoned military CT intelligence analysts had been warning about internally, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen said he was "stunned" by the seizure of the oil super-tanker. Mullen conceded that ?we've seen an extraordinary rise" in attacks and that he?s ?extremely concerned by the overall number? of attacks.
The oil-tanker seizure has set off alarm bells at the Pentagon and inside the Bush administration, which in the last several days has made it a priority to provide the latest intelligence on the situation to President-elect Barack Obama and his national security transition advisors - especially intelligence indicating possible larger-scale terrorist plots to sink oil super-tankers, which Al Qaeda has made clear are targets.
Should enough oil tankers be seized or destroyed to cause an appreciable rise in crude prices or significantly disrupt domestic and Western supplies, the West would be faced with taking military naval action - perhaps even air and ground assaults.
For more than a decade, counterterrorists have warned about the growing influence of fundamental Islamists in the Horn of Africa. They've long feared that their expansion in the region could create a breeding ground for jihadist terrorism. During the 1990s, Sudan openly provided a safe haven for Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda, which by the mid-90?s had expanded into Somalia.
CT authorities say the recent standing up of AFRICOM was long overdue, and hope that it will be empowered to take a tougher military ? covert and otherwise ? role in combating Horn of Africa piracy, especially the pirates' linked to Al Qaeda and jihadist terror movements.
http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/6126/128/
