Ohio official warns of massive flu
Communities will be on own to cope with pandemic with no state, federal aid, he says
BY PEGGY O'FARRELL | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER
WALNUT HILLS - Communities can't depend on the state or federal government coming to the rescue if pandemic influenza hits, assistant Ohio health director Jim Pearsol said.
That makes planning for a pandemic more crucial for local governments, schools, businesses and individuals, said Pearsol, the assistant director of policy and leadership for the Ohio Department of Health.
In Hamilton County, health officials project pandemic flu could sicken more than 190,000 people and send up to 5,000 to the hospital.
Most public health experts agree the world is overdue for a flu pandemic, which occurs when a new flu virus is infectious worldwide.
The bird flu virus cropping up in Asia and Africa is a prime candidate for causing the next pandemic, although another strain of influenza virus could as well, health officials say.
Since no one will have natural immunity to the new strain, deaths and illnesses associated with it will be very high, experts say.
The last pandemic was in 1968. The best known was the 1918 pandemic, when 20 million to 50 million people died worldwide from the so-called Spanish influenza.
Federal officials have already warned states not to count on a massive federal response in the event of a pandemic, said Pearsol. "Just like there's no federal cavalry coming over the ridge, there's no state cavalry coming down over the ridge either," he said.
Pearsol spoke Tuesday at the 2006 Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Conference at Walnut Hills High School.
More than 100 people attended the conference sponsored by the Hamilton County General Health Districts, and health departments in Cincinnati, Norwood, Sharonville and Springdale sponsored the conference.
Businesses need to plan for up to four out of 10 employees being absent because they or a loved one is sick, said Hamilton County health commissioner Tim Ingram.
Hospitals will be overwhelmed, so alternative sources of care will be needed. Theaters and other events might have to be closed to prevent the virus from spreading in crowds, and families could be quarantined, health officials said Monday.
"Every layer of society will be affected," Ingram said.
Ingram gave the following projections emergency planners are using for a pandemic:
Patients needing outpatient care: 89,602 to 190,193 in Hamilton County, 120,000 to 280,000 in Southwest Ohio and 1.1 million to 2.9 million statewide.
Patients requiring hospitalization: 1,690 to 5,071 in Hamilton County, 2,200 to 5,100 in Southwest Ohio and 26,000 to 67,000 statewide.
Deaths: 422 to 845 in Hamilton County, 5,000 in Southwest Ohio and 6,000 to 16,000 statewide.
In Hamilton County, officials are designating sites for the distribution of medications like Tamiflu and vaccine.
Communication is key when dealing with a pandemic, Ingram said, and the county already has a good system to allow physicians and hospitals to notify the health district about influenza and other infectious diseases, including last year's cryptosporidium outbreak. Some 6,000 physicians in the county can quickly report flu and other diseases to local hospitals, who in turn can notify the health district. Local health officials have also been equipped with small hand-held computers that can track people, vaccine and medications during a pandemic or other disaster, he said.
It's hard to project when a pandemic might occur, said J. Nick Baird, but health officials are betting one will occur. "There will be a pandemic sometime in the future. It might not be in six months or a year or even a year-and-a-half, but it will happen."
Communities will be on own to cope with pandemic with no state, federal aid, he says
BY PEGGY O'FARRELL | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER
WALNUT HILLS - Communities can't depend on the state or federal government coming to the rescue if pandemic influenza hits, assistant Ohio health director Jim Pearsol said.
That makes planning for a pandemic more crucial for local governments, schools, businesses and individuals, said Pearsol, the assistant director of policy and leadership for the Ohio Department of Health.
In Hamilton County, health officials project pandemic flu could sicken more than 190,000 people and send up to 5,000 to the hospital.
Most public health experts agree the world is overdue for a flu pandemic, which occurs when a new flu virus is infectious worldwide.
The bird flu virus cropping up in Asia and Africa is a prime candidate for causing the next pandemic, although another strain of influenza virus could as well, health officials say.
Since no one will have natural immunity to the new strain, deaths and illnesses associated with it will be very high, experts say.
The last pandemic was in 1968. The best known was the 1918 pandemic, when 20 million to 50 million people died worldwide from the so-called Spanish influenza.
Federal officials have already warned states not to count on a massive federal response in the event of a pandemic, said Pearsol. "Just like there's no federal cavalry coming over the ridge, there's no state cavalry coming down over the ridge either," he said.
Pearsol spoke Tuesday at the 2006 Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Conference at Walnut Hills High School.
More than 100 people attended the conference sponsored by the Hamilton County General Health Districts, and health departments in Cincinnati, Norwood, Sharonville and Springdale sponsored the conference.
Businesses need to plan for up to four out of 10 employees being absent because they or a loved one is sick, said Hamilton County health commissioner Tim Ingram.
Hospitals will be overwhelmed, so alternative sources of care will be needed. Theaters and other events might have to be closed to prevent the virus from spreading in crowds, and families could be quarantined, health officials said Monday.
"Every layer of society will be affected," Ingram said.
Ingram gave the following projections emergency planners are using for a pandemic:
Patients needing outpatient care: 89,602 to 190,193 in Hamilton County, 120,000 to 280,000 in Southwest Ohio and 1.1 million to 2.9 million statewide.
Patients requiring hospitalization: 1,690 to 5,071 in Hamilton County, 2,200 to 5,100 in Southwest Ohio and 26,000 to 67,000 statewide.
Deaths: 422 to 845 in Hamilton County, 5,000 in Southwest Ohio and 6,000 to 16,000 statewide.
In Hamilton County, officials are designating sites for the distribution of medications like Tamiflu and vaccine.
Communication is key when dealing with a pandemic, Ingram said, and the county already has a good system to allow physicians and hospitals to notify the health district about influenza and other infectious diseases, including last year's cryptosporidium outbreak. Some 6,000 physicians in the county can quickly report flu and other diseases to local hospitals, who in turn can notify the health district. Local health officials have also been equipped with small hand-held computers that can track people, vaccine and medications during a pandemic or other disaster, he said.
It's hard to project when a pandemic might occur, said J. Nick Baird, but health officials are betting one will occur. "There will be a pandemic sometime in the future. It might not be in six months or a year or even a year-and-a-half, but it will happen."