Sally Furniss
Well-known member
Swine flu pandemic could last two years
LATEST The swine flu pandemic is expected to last between 18 and 24 months though health authorities say there is no way to predict exactly what the virus will do.
The World Health Organisation announced a pandemic of the AH1N1 swine flu this morning.
Health Ministry deputy director of public health Darren Hunt said there was a lot of uncertainty about the virus and said that it might not follow the pattern of normal influenza.
Over 30 cases of swine flu are expected to be confirmed later today and a spread of the virus here was "inevitable", according to health minister Tony Ryall.
There are 10 probable cases, 319 suspected cases and a further 288 people in isolation.
Mr Hunt said that at some point in the future, the strategy would move from containment to a managing it within the community, once the flu began being spread from person to person in New Zealand.
In a statement, the Ministry of Health said that the spread of the virus here was likely to mirror the way it had spread in Australia and that it would inevitably be spread amongst the community.
"At that point we will increase our emphasis on managing the cases in the community and treat it like the flu ? the difference is that many more people will be affected because the population is not immune to the new virus."
He said they reviewed the strategy on a daily basis.
Mr Ryall said that every week the spread could be delayed past winter meant there would be less strain placed on hospitals and it would give people more time to prepare.
According to Dr Hunt between 20 and 30 per cent of the country's population being affected "would not be surprising" though this number would be spread across the entire length of the pandemic and not at once.
He said they were looking at the use of a vaccine as a "very real strategy".
They currently stock 1.2 million doses of Tamiflu for those who have been affected.
Mr Ryall said the flu would likely follow the pattern of a bell curve, with infections increasing and peaking before subsiding.
"It becomes dangerous for people who would be normally susceptible to the flu" such as those with underlying vulnerability or those who contracted secondary illnesses such as pneumonia, he said.
PANDEMIC STATUS 'NO SURPRISE'
Ministry of Health chief advisor Ashley Bloomfield said the ministry had been preparing for a pandemic announcement from the WHO for some time.
"It came as no surprise," he told Radio New Zealand.
All of the swine flu cases in New Zealand had come from people who had either come into the country from overseas, or were contracted by people in close contact with travellers who had been abroad, Dr Bloomfield said.
"So we can trace them to travellers and that is why at this stage we are staying with that containment phase because. . . we have no evidence as yet of community spread within New Zealand."
But the ministry advised people not to cancel or postpone overseas trips for the July school holidays ? "simply because we don't know what the situation will be in early July."
He said people who had arrived back in the country from places with a high swine flu rate should continue to go to work and school if they were not showing any flu symptoms.
General practitioners were preparing to face the issue and had requested improved access to protective masks, gloves and gowns to enable them to treat patients who may arrive at their practices with swine flu.
Medical Association chairman Peter Foley said only some district health boards had released funds to ensure general practices remained fully stocked with supplies.
Meanwhile, Auckland Hospital was on high alert and a child centre had closed after a nurse and her child tested positive for swine flu after returning to the country from a family holiday in the United Kingdom on Saturday.
Seasonal flu hits up to 20 percent, about 760,000 New Zealanders each year. On average, 2.7 percent of the population (156,000 people) will go to their GP because of flu each year and an estimated 95 people will die.
Treasury estimates in 2007 of the economic impact in New Zealand of a flu pandemic ranged from a 10 percent drop in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for an epidemic of a severe form, to a fall-off of between 1 percent and 2 percent for a relatively benign virus.
But acting assistant Treasury Secretary Colin Hall has said those figures had probably been overtaken by the global recession.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/swine-flu/2494624/Swine-flu-pandemic-could-last-two-years
LATEST The swine flu pandemic is expected to last between 18 and 24 months though health authorities say there is no way to predict exactly what the virus will do.
The World Health Organisation announced a pandemic of the AH1N1 swine flu this morning.
Health Ministry deputy director of public health Darren Hunt said there was a lot of uncertainty about the virus and said that it might not follow the pattern of normal influenza.
Over 30 cases of swine flu are expected to be confirmed later today and a spread of the virus here was "inevitable", according to health minister Tony Ryall.
There are 10 probable cases, 319 suspected cases and a further 288 people in isolation.
Mr Hunt said that at some point in the future, the strategy would move from containment to a managing it within the community, once the flu began being spread from person to person in New Zealand.
In a statement, the Ministry of Health said that the spread of the virus here was likely to mirror the way it had spread in Australia and that it would inevitably be spread amongst the community.
"At that point we will increase our emphasis on managing the cases in the community and treat it like the flu ? the difference is that many more people will be affected because the population is not immune to the new virus."
He said they reviewed the strategy on a daily basis.
Mr Ryall said that every week the spread could be delayed past winter meant there would be less strain placed on hospitals and it would give people more time to prepare.
According to Dr Hunt between 20 and 30 per cent of the country's population being affected "would not be surprising" though this number would be spread across the entire length of the pandemic and not at once.
He said they were looking at the use of a vaccine as a "very real strategy".
They currently stock 1.2 million doses of Tamiflu for those who have been affected.
Mr Ryall said the flu would likely follow the pattern of a bell curve, with infections increasing and peaking before subsiding.
"It becomes dangerous for people who would be normally susceptible to the flu" such as those with underlying vulnerability or those who contracted secondary illnesses such as pneumonia, he said.
PANDEMIC STATUS 'NO SURPRISE'
Ministry of Health chief advisor Ashley Bloomfield said the ministry had been preparing for a pandemic announcement from the WHO for some time.
"It came as no surprise," he told Radio New Zealand.
All of the swine flu cases in New Zealand had come from people who had either come into the country from overseas, or were contracted by people in close contact with travellers who had been abroad, Dr Bloomfield said.
"So we can trace them to travellers and that is why at this stage we are staying with that containment phase because. . . we have no evidence as yet of community spread within New Zealand."
But the ministry advised people not to cancel or postpone overseas trips for the July school holidays ? "simply because we don't know what the situation will be in early July."
He said people who had arrived back in the country from places with a high swine flu rate should continue to go to work and school if they were not showing any flu symptoms.
General practitioners were preparing to face the issue and had requested improved access to protective masks, gloves and gowns to enable them to treat patients who may arrive at their practices with swine flu.
Medical Association chairman Peter Foley said only some district health boards had released funds to ensure general practices remained fully stocked with supplies.
Meanwhile, Auckland Hospital was on high alert and a child centre had closed after a nurse and her child tested positive for swine flu after returning to the country from a family holiday in the United Kingdom on Saturday.
Seasonal flu hits up to 20 percent, about 760,000 New Zealanders each year. On average, 2.7 percent of the population (156,000 people) will go to their GP because of flu each year and an estimated 95 people will die.
Treasury estimates in 2007 of the economic impact in New Zealand of a flu pandemic ranged from a 10 percent drop in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for an epidemic of a severe form, to a fall-off of between 1 percent and 2 percent for a relatively benign virus.
But acting assistant Treasury Secretary Colin Hall has said those figures had probably been overtaken by the global recession.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/swine-flu/2494624/Swine-flu-pandemic-could-last-two-years