NZ - Model for big earthquake risk put at 23 per cent

[Sally Furniss]

Big earthquake risk put at 23 per cent
PAUL GORMAN
Last updated 05:00 31/05/2011

Canterbury has a nearly one-in-four chance of a third major earthquake of up to magnitude-7.0 during the next year, officials have been warned.

The forecast from Government research agency GNS Science for those charged with helping rebuild the damaged region will come as news to the public, who are still waiting to find out what scientists have discovered below Christchurch and the Canterbury Plains.

A 23 per cent chance of a magnitude-6.0 to 7.0 quake in the next year, dropping to a 10 per cent risk the following year.

More than 90 per cent chance of a magnitude-5.0 to 6.0 shake in the next 12 months, falling to more than a 70 per cent chance in the following year.

more http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-earthquake/5076193/Big-earthquake-risk-put-at-23-per-ce

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: NZ - Big earthquake risk put at 23 per cent

Re: NZ - Big earthquake risk put at 23 per cent

Sutton told ONE News he had been advised by GNS that it was unlikely that an earthquake would hit in the same area as the September 4 and February 22 quakes.

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/govt-agency-warns-major-quake-threat-4199755

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: NZ - Big earthquake risk put at 23 per cent

Re: NZ - Big earthquake risk put at 23 per cent

GNS Science spokesman John Callan confirmed the figures given to Cera and councillors which were calculated by GNS Science hazards modeller Matthew Gerstenberger.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10729141

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: NZ - Big earthquake risk put at 23 per cent

Re: NZ - Big earthquake risk put at 23 per cent

Matthew Gerstenberger from GNS Science says the prediction is based on a widely-used aftershock model considered reliable by seismologists.

He says there is about a 6% risk that a large quake will hit Christchurch city

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/canterbury-earthquake/76615/risk-of-big-quake-risk-put-at-23-percent

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: NZ - Model for big earthquake risk put at 23 per cent

The forecasts cover the whole of Canterbury, so a quake striking Christchurch city itself is reduced to just a 6 percent likelihood.

But experts say locals should still be prepared.

GNS science says local authorities and infrastructure experts are taking the figures seriously.

http://www.3news.co.nz/GNS-1-in-4-c...quake/tabid/423/articleID/213325/Default.aspx

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: NZ - Model for big earthquake risk

Re: NZ - Model for big earthquake risk

New calculations by GNS Science yesterday show that from today until June 15 next year there is now a 30 per cent chance of a quake of between magnitude 6.0 and 6.9 striking the Canterbury aftershock zone.

That compares with a nearly one-in-four, or 23 per cent, probability expressed last month.

The calculations show if that quake does not occur in the next month, the chance of it happening will drop back to about the 23 per cent level.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/chr...5145114/Mondays-earthquakes-lift-risk-to-30pc

 

[kiwibird]

Re: NZ - Model for big earthquake risk put at 23 per cent

This theory proposes that there is stress in the area DUE to the Alpine Fault being locked. Until that re-alignes the stress will remain.
http://www.sound.co.nz/earthquake/chch_stress_map.htm

It also has a graph for energy release over time;
http://www.sound.co.nz/earthquake/

As does the christchurchquakemap
http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/dailyEnergy

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: NZ - Model for big earthquake risk put at 23 per cent

Aftershock statistics and forecasts

Some explanation and background to the 24 hour probability map.

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: NZ - Model for big earthquake risk put at 23 per cent

Earthquake probabilities and forecasting

Matt Gerstenberger uses statistical models to forecast aftershock probabilities

<iframe width="640" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/c-9PZFsmW2E?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: NZ - Model for big earthquake risk put at 23 per cent

GNS Hazard Modeller Matt Gerstenberger talks to Radio New Zealand about Canterbury's earthquake risk (May 31 2011)