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November 2008 Economic Phenomena

sharon sanders

Editor-in-Chief & President
Dollar Falls Versus Euro as U.S. Loses More Jobs Than Forecast

By Jamie McGee
data



Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell for the first time in three days against the euro as the U.S. unemployment rate climbed to the highest level since 1994, indicating the financial crisis is taking a sustained toll.
The U.S. currency was headed for a weekly loss against the yen on concern the world's largest economy will contract even as the Federal Reserve increased buying assets and providing loans to ease the credit crunch.
``The weakness in the economy continues,'' said Adam Boyton, a senior currency strategist in New York at Deutsche Bank AG, the world's largest currency trader.
The dollar depreciated 0.2 percent to $1.2736 per euro at 9:49 a.m. in New York, from $1.2715 yesterday, and was headed for a weekly loss of 0.2 percent. The dollar traded at 97.74 yen, compared with 97.75, and fell 0.8 percent this week. The 15-nation euro increased 0.2 percent to 124.53 yen from 124.29.
U.S. employers eliminated 240,000 jobs last month after shedding 284,000 positions in September, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 78 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a decline of 200,000 in October. The unemployment rate increased to 6.5 percent from 6.1 percent in the previous month.
The number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits surged to the highest level since 1983, the Labor Department reported yesterday. A total of 3.843 million workers got unemployment-insurance checks in the week ended Oct. 25, up 122,000 from the prior week.
Fed Lending
The Fed has doubled its balance sheet to $1.97 trillion in the past year to increase its capacity to support asset values and provide dollar liquidity in major economies such as Europe and Japan as well as emerging markets including Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Singapore.
Canada's dollar was headed for a 2.2 percent weekly gain against the greenback after the government reported that the nation's employers unexpectedly added jobs in October. The loonie rose 1.2 percent to C$1.1830 per U.S. dollar today.
The South Korean won rose 0.2 percent to 1,328.65 per dollar, paring its weekly decline to 2.9 percent, as local stocks rebounded following the Bank of Korea's decision to cut its benchmark rate to 4 percent, the third reduction in a month.
The euro fell against the dollar, yen and pound yesterday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the economy ``weakened significantly'' and the International Monetary Fund cut growth forecasts for the region.
ECB Rate
The ECB reduced its main refinancing rate by a half- percentage point to 3.25 percent and Trichet said more reductions may follow. The Bank of England unexpectedly lowered its rate by 1.5 percentage point to 3 percent.
The ECB also reduced the benchmark rate by a half- percentage point on Oct. 8, joining the Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank in coordinated cuts. Benchmark rates are 1 percent in the U.S. and 0.3 percent in Japan.
Japan will benefit from a strong yen because it will hold down prices for raw materials, said Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly the nation's top currency official, in an interview on Bloomberg Television in Singapore yesterday.
``I still believe a strong yen is in the national interest of Japan, particularly in this situation when raw material prices will increase,'' Sakakibara said.
The yen may strengthen to 80 per dollar as trades in which investors get funds in countries with low borrowing costs and buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere unwind, said Sakakibara, who was dubbed ``Mr. Yen'' during his 1997-1999 tenure at the Finance Ministry because of his influence over currency markets. Japan's target rate is the lowest in the industrialized world.
The yen's 15 percent increase against the dollar this year and 32 percent advance versus the euro prompted Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa to say last week that the government was ready to act as needed to limit the gains.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXxMRbeJxxeo&refer=home
 
Re: November 2008 Economic Phenomena

October 31, 2008 | EPI Policy Memorandum #133

The Economy in Numbers

by Ross Eisenbrey with research assistance from Kathryn Edwards

The wild, day-to-day fluctuations of the stock market have dominated much of the recent economic coverage, but it is essential to keep the longer-term trends in mind as we move forward with crafting a rescue plan for the economy. Below is a snapshot of the economy's health that looks at a variety of important measures.

Unemployment

There were 9.5 million unemployed workers in September 2008, up 25% from 7.5 million in January, and up 40% from 6.7 million in March 2007.<SUP>i</SUP>
<SUP></SUP>
Job Openings

There were 2.9 unemployed workers for every job opening in August 2008, up from 1.9 in January and 1.8 one-year ago.<SUP>ii</SUP>
<SUP></SUP>
Median Wages

Median weekly wages for a full-time worker have fallen by 1.6% over the last year.<SUP>iii</SUP>
<SUP></SUP>
Foreclosures

There were 265,968 home foreclosures in September 2008 alone, 21% higher than last September. There were 765,558 foreclosures in the third quarter of this year, 71% higher than the third quarter last year.<SUP>iv</SUP>
<SUP></SUP>
Underemployment

In September, 17.1 million workers were underemployed (too discouraged to look for work, unemployed, or working part time but wanting full-time work), a 31.7% increase from the 13 million underemployed workers a year ago, and up 21% from 14 million in January 2008.<SUP>v</SUP>
<SUP></SUP>
Trade Deficit

As of August 2008, the annualized trade deficit ($711 billion) equalled 5.0% of national output. In contrast, the trade deficit equalled 3.9% of national output in 2007.<SUP>vi</SUP>
<SUP></SUP>
Pension Loss

An estimated $2 trillion in pension wealth has been lost in the past year and a half because of the financial crisis.<SUP>vii</SUP>
<SUP></SUP>
Bankruptcy

Business bankruptcy filings rose 67% in September from a year ago. Combined business and individual filings in the past year reached a total of 799,531.<SUP>viii</SUP>
<SUP></SUP>
Employment

Total employment has fallen by 760,000 since December 2007, with a loss of 969,000 jobs in the private sector.<SUP>ix</SUP>
Notes

i. BLS Current Population Survey, Labor Force Statistics ? Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Level and Rate, September 2008.

ii. BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey ? Seasonally Adjusted, Total Non-farm Openings, September 2008.

iii. BLS Current Population Survey, Labor Force Statistics ? Median weekly earnings, full-time Employment, wage & salary workers, September 2008.

iv. RealtyTrac ? U.S. Foreclosure Market Report , September 2008.
http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=5300&accnt=64847

v. BLS Current Population Survey, Labor Force Statistics ? Underemployed workers are total of unemployed, involuntary part-time, and marginally attached workers, September 2008.

vi. U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division ? U.S. Total Trade Balance in Goods and Services http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/gandsbal.pdf

vii. Testimony of Peter Orszag, head of Congressional Budget Office on 10/7/08 before House Committee on Education and Labor

viii. AACER ? Automated Access to Court Electronic Records press release http://aacer.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=80&Itemid=41

ix. USDOL Employment Situation Report, Establishment Data, September 2008

http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/pm133
 
Re: November 2008 Economic Phenomena

Obama's first news conference includes comments on the economy -

US President-elect Barack Obama has pledged to confront the economic crisis "head-on" immediately after taking office in January.

In his first official appearance since his election win, he said a stimulus package to boost the economy was long overdue and would be his top priority.


He pledged to create jobs and help middle class families.


"It's not going to be quick and it's not going to be easy to dig ourselves out of the hole we are in," he said.

<!-- E SF -->
"But America is a strong and resilient country and I know that we will succeed if we put aside partisanship and politics to work together."


snip



He promised to initiate a rescue plan to provide tax relief for those struggling to pay their bills. He said an economic stimulus package needed to be passed before or immediately after his inauguration.


The president-elect also said he would extend unemployment benefits and help local governments so they did not have to lay off staff.


It was a high priority, he said, to work on policies to help the stricken US car industry adjust to the economic crisis.


He made no new personnel announcements but noted calls for him to pick a treasury secretary quickly.


Mr Obama stressed it was important to make the right appointment, saying: "I want to move with all deliberate haste but I want to emphasise deliberate as well as haste."


He referred to Friday's US labour department figures, which revealed the economy had shed 240,000 jobs in October, bringing job losses so far this year to 1.2 million. The US was facing the greatest economic crisis in memory, he said.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7715365.stm
 
Re: November 2008 Economic Phenomena

"Consumers were already fighting to keep their heads above water in the third quarter, and in October they were thrown several heavy cement blocks in the form of steep declines in employment and hours worked, further declines in house prices, and a massive negative shock to household net financial assets.

Partially offsetting these factors, gasoline prices plummeted to levels not seen since October 2007. Negative accelerator effects from declines in employment, hours worked and net household worth are expected to hit the economy hard in the fourth quarter, despite further declines in gasoline prices. The steep dive in retail sales is also feeding back to reduce employment in the retail sales sector at a critical time of the year. "

Brian Bethune, Global Insight

http://www.globalinsight.com/
 
Join the club....

Join the club....

Insurers Buy Banks in Effort to Get Aid


U.S. life insurers, weakened by losses on their immense investment portfolios, are maneuvering to get a slice of government bailout funds by buying up tiny banks.
On Monday, Lincoln National Corp. said it agreed to buy a small savings-and-loan institution in Goodland, Ind. In recent days Genworth Financial Inc. said it agreed to buy a thrift in Maple Grove, Minn., and Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. said it had struck a deal to purchase Federal Trust Corp., in Sanford, Fla.



more....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122696868966435573.html?mod=testMod
 
China's economy - Reflating the Dragon....

China's economy - Reflating the Dragon....

".....After growing by an annual average of over 10% over the past five years, China?s economy has suddenly cooled more quickly than expected. GDP growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter, from 11.9% in 2007. That still sounds pretty impressive, but other indicators suggest weaker times ahead. Construction, steel demand, electricity consumption, car sales and air travel have all been falling in recent months. Industrial production grew by only 8.2% in the year to October, less than half its pace a year ago and its slowest for seven years. Share prices have slumped by 70% from their peak and house prices have started to drop. Property sales are running 40-50% lower than a year ago. Unsurprisingly, surveys show that consumer and business confidence is cracking..."

more...

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?source=most_commented&story_id=12606998
 
Re: November 2008 Economic Phenomena

U.S. producer prices fall a record 2.8% in October

Gasoline prices plunge, curbing wholesale-level inflation; core PPI up 0.4%



WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. wholesale prices fell a record 2.8% in October as wholesale gasoline prices plummeted 24.9%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.



The drop in gasoline prices also was a record for the government's data, which date back to 1947.


The data deliver further evidence for the Federal Reserve that inflation isn't a top concern for the U.S. central bankers, amid Washington's efforts to revive the economy.


The Federal Open Market Committee will primarily focus on its lender-of-last-resort role until the policy makers convene for their December meeting, wrote Mike Englund, chief economist for Action Economics.


He added that it's still unclear what inflation will look in the longer run, after the current financial crisis.


"Until then, the Fed is likely to anxiously await some signs that the current commodity price correction and growth downturn is translating to an observed moderation in core price gains," Englund wrote.


Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist with High Frequency Economics, predicted "further sharp declines" for inflation in November.


"Needless to say this is all about energy prices," Shepherdson wrote.
Overall, finished energy goods prices fell 12.8% in October, the most since 1986, while food prices declined 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, core producer prices rose 0.4% in October.


Details


Prices for capital equipment rose 0.5%, pushing up the core result, as prices for light motor trucks gained 2.6%. Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist with IHS Global Insight, said he'd like to see a lower core rate, but isn't too worried about the October result.


"We saw huge commodity price increases really through the middle part of this year," Gault said. "It took a long time for that to start feeding though into the core inflation. So we're probably seeing the last gasp of the inflationary implications of the previous price hikes."


He added that the October data tries to incorporate a new vehicle model year into data adjustments, and "that's a tricky thing to do." Going forward, the economist expects that the core rate will slow in the next couple of months.

"One reason I'm not so concerned is that over the past two months there's been an upward contributions to core from the vehicles component, and the vehicles component is very volatile from month to month," Gault said. "How likely is it that manufacturers would be able to pursue a price increase for light trucks? So I view it as a temporary increase."


Analysts polled by MarketWatch had been looking for a decrease of 1.6% in overall PPI and for a 0.1% increase in the core rate.


Records also fell further back in the production pipeline: Prices for intermediate goods fell 3.9% in October, while prices for core intermediate goods dropped 1.7%, prices for crude goods sank 18.6%, prices for crude core goods retreated 17% and crude food prices dropped 11.1%.


Crude energy prices declined 24.9% last month, the most since April 2003.
In September, overall producer prices fell 0.4%, while the core rate rose 0.4%.


Producer prices are up 5.2% over the past 12 months.
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Ruth Mantell is a MarketWatch reporter based in Washington.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...1318-C36E-4501-8261-9F256DC6F322}&dist=msr_35

 
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