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Nigeria: Situation Reports as of August 27 and 30, 2014

A

alert

Senior Moderator
I'm a bit confused by this latest report (which is three days old).

http://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria...ituation-report-sitrep-no-28-27th-august-2014

Dr. Enemuo is now a confirmed case, and his diplomat contact is listed as suspect (and has since been confirmed). The report now lists 7 deaths, 6 confirmed and one probable. The total in the report is 15 confirmed, 1 probable, and 3 suspect, for a total of 19. The other two suspects are Dr. Enemuo's wife, and "a secondary contact of a primary contact of the index case", whatever that means.

So who is the probable case? He or she has died, but there's nothing in the report as to who it is. And it's not a new case on the 27th, as there are no NEW probable cases?

And did the case die on the 27th or not? The report lists no new deaths on the 27th, but then lower down lists one new death in HCW on the 27th. So there has to be some error there.

Not every day's report is getting posted online, and the one for the 26th is not online. The one for the 25th doesn't show that case at all.

Could it actually be an error, the result of adding Dr. Enemuo as a confirmed case but not subtracting him as a probable case?
 
Re: Nigeria: Situation Report as of August 27, 2014

Re: Nigeria: Situation Report as of August 27, 2014

I've thought long and hard about this report, and can think of three good explanations:

1. Dr. Enemuo has been double counted, once as a confirmed case and once as a probable case. That would mean that Dr. Adaevoh's sister has been discarded as a case (since she's not confirmed, there are no probable, and all active suspects as of the 27th have been reported on the 27th itself). The current total would be 17 confirmed, 0 probable, and only suspects reported after the 27th (of which I am aware of 3).

2. Dr. Adaevoh's sister has died without diagnosis, and is now the probable case. This would explain the mystery above, and explain how they got a probable case without having any NEW probable cases. She would simply have been upgraded from suspect to probable. That would leave Nigeria with 17 confirmed, 1 probable, and the same suspect list as in scenario #1.

3. Some other HCW contact of an Ebola case has died without confirmation on or before the 27th. But where's the media report by now? In this scenario, Dr. Adaevoh's sister would also have to be discarded as a case, for pretty much the same reasons as in #1 (and now she's not the probable case because it's someone new), and the total is the same as in scenario #2 (17 confirmed, one probable, and the new suspects), but would obviouslynot include Dr. Adaevoh's sister.
 
Re: Nigeria: Situation Report as of August 27, 2014 - counting errors? - possible exclusion of Dr. Adaevoh's sister?

Re: Nigeria: Situation Report as of August 27, 2014 - counting errors? - possible exclusion of Dr. Adaevoh's sister?

OK. We have a new report:

http://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria...ituation-report-sitrep-no-31-30th-august-2014

The probable case is in Lagos, is a HCW and had onset August 2. That rules out scenario #1 above.

So is it #2 (and Dr. Adaevoh's sister died without report or diagnosis) or #3 (some previously unreported HCW was found dead)?
 
Re: Nigeria: Situation Reports as of August 27 and 30, 2014 - possible exclusion of Dr. Adaevoh's sister?

Re: Nigeria: Situation Reports as of August 27 and 30, 2014 - possible exclusion of Dr. Adaevoh's sister?

According to post #24 of this thread:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=543433

Dr. Adadevoh's sister is a confirmed case, already in the count in Lagos. So it must be scenario #3, some other HCW has died.

But why wasn't the case confirmed, and why hasn't there been any media report of this case?
 
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