tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Nat Commun
. 2026 Mar 24;17(1):2248.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-026-69988-8.
Post-pandemic changes in population immunity have reduced the likelihood of emergence of zoonotic coronaviruses
Ryan M Imrie[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Laura A Bissett[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Savitha Raveendran[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Maria Manali[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Julien A R Amat[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Laura Mojsiejczuk[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nicola Logan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Andrew Park[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Marc Baguelin[SUP] 5 6 [/SUP], Mafalda Viana[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Brian J Willett[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Pablo R Murcia[SUP] 9 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Infections by endemic viruses, and the vaccines used to control them, often provide cross-protection against related viruses, potentially altering the transmission dynamics and likelihood of emergence of new zoonotic viruses with pandemic potential. Here, we investigate how population immunity after the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the likelihood of emergence of a novel sarbecovirus, termed SARS-CoV-X. To this end, we combined empirical cross-neutralisation data with mathematical modelling to identify key immunological and epidemiological factors shaping sarbecovirus emergence. We show that sera from individuals with different COVID-19 immunological histories contained cross-neutralising antibodies against the spike (S) protein of multiple zoonotic sarbecoviruses. Simulations parameterised by these data predict that the likelihood of emergence of a novel sarbecovirus has been reduced significantly by population cross-immunity, with outcomes determined by the extent of cross-protection and R0 of the novel virus. Preventative vaccination against SARS-CoV-X using available COVID-19 vaccines can help resist emergence even in the presence of co-circulating SARS-CoV-2. However, a theoretical vaccine with high specificity to SARS-CoV-2 can increase emergence probability by suppressing SARS-CoV-2 prevalence and, by extension, levels of natural cross-protection. Overall, SARS-CoV-2 circulation and vaccination have generated widespread immunity against related sarbecoviruses, creating an immunological barrier to novel sarbecovirus emergence in humans.
. 2026 Mar 24;17(1):2248.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-026-69988-8.
Post-pandemic changes in population immunity have reduced the likelihood of emergence of zoonotic coronaviruses
Ryan M Imrie[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Laura A Bissett[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Savitha Raveendran[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Maria Manali[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Julien A R Amat[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Laura Mojsiejczuk[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nicola Logan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Andrew Park[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Marc Baguelin[SUP] 5 6 [/SUP], Mafalda Viana[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Brian J Willett[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Pablo R Murcia[SUP] 9 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 41876522
- DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-69988-8
Infections by endemic viruses, and the vaccines used to control them, often provide cross-protection against related viruses, potentially altering the transmission dynamics and likelihood of emergence of new zoonotic viruses with pandemic potential. Here, we investigate how population immunity after the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the likelihood of emergence of a novel sarbecovirus, termed SARS-CoV-X. To this end, we combined empirical cross-neutralisation data with mathematical modelling to identify key immunological and epidemiological factors shaping sarbecovirus emergence. We show that sera from individuals with different COVID-19 immunological histories contained cross-neutralising antibodies against the spike (S) protein of multiple zoonotic sarbecoviruses. Simulations parameterised by these data predict that the likelihood of emergence of a novel sarbecovirus has been reduced significantly by population cross-immunity, with outcomes determined by the extent of cross-protection and R0 of the novel virus. Preventative vaccination against SARS-CoV-X using available COVID-19 vaccines can help resist emergence even in the presence of co-circulating SARS-CoV-2. However, a theoretical vaccine with high specificity to SARS-CoV-2 can increase emergence probability by suppressing SARS-CoV-2 prevalence and, by extension, levels of natural cross-protection. Overall, SARS-CoV-2 circulation and vaccination have generated widespread immunity against related sarbecoviruses, creating an immunological barrier to novel sarbecovirus emergence in humans.