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More than Half of U.S. Physicians Believe Bird Flu will Achieve Human Transmission...

  • Thread starter Thread starter KC
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KC

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May 01, 2006 04:42 PM US Eastern Timezone

More than Half of U.S. Physicians Believe Bird Flu will Achieve Human Transmission within Four Years

FLEMINGTON, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 1, 2006--A new national survey of 656 physicians revealed that more than half of physicians (56%) believe that the Avian Bird Flu will achieve human transmission within four years in the U.S.

The national survey was conducted by HCD Research during April 6-7, to obtain the views of physicians on a potential bird flu pandemic within the U.S.

Among the findings:

-- A large majority of physicians (65%) believe that the avian bird flu will achieve human transmission within the next 72 months, while 61% feel it will happen in the next 60 months and 56% think it will occur within 48 months. However, fewer physicians (14%) feel the spread of avian flu will come about within the next year.

-- 34% of physicians consider the administration of an experimental vaccine for bird flu to 20 million people in the U.S. would be likely to help prevent a pandemic from occurring within the country. Conversely, 51% of physicians believe the vaccine would be unlikely to help prevent a pandemic and 15% remain neutral.

-- Nearly one quarter of physicians (24%) think there is likely to be a successful distribution of an efficacious vaccine that will immunize enough people in the U.S. to protect against a large-scale transmission of a human-to-human form of the avian flu during the next 24 months. However, the majority of physicians (65%) reported that the distribution of a vaccine to be unlikely and 12% remain neutral.

-- More than half of physicians (53%) do not worry much or at all about themselves or someone in their immediate family contracting the bird flu, while 39% worry somewhat and 7% worry a great deal.

"The results of our study indicate that while the majority of physicians believe that the avian bird flu will be successful at achieving human-to-human transmission, it will not occur within the next year or two," commented Glenn Kessler, co-founder and managing partner, HCD Research.

To view detailed results for the physicians' poll, please go to: http://publish.hcdhealth.com/P1014/
 
Re: More than Half of U.S. Physicians Believe Bird Flu will Achieve Human Transmission...

Do they have different information than we do?

Do they have better crystal balls than we do?

It's anyone's Guess.

Lets see what the H5N1 family reunion at Qinghai has in store for us this year.
 
Re: More than Half of U.S. Physicians Believe Bird Flu will Achieve Human Transmission...

Goju - ask and you shall receive...below we can see why some are more concerned about the fall.

from here.

FIGURE 2-2 Seasonality of the isolation of avian H5N1 viruses from domestic poultry in mainland China during July 2000 to January 2004 (see Table 2-1). The mean monthly temperature in southern China (approximated from the monthly average temperatures of the cities Changsha, Kunming, and Xiamen) is shown for reference.

See chart below....

View attachment 245
 
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