Liberia: 231 new cases in 2 days suggests a trend toward 4830 by September 30

[franzpick]

Tonight's SitRep #118 states total 9/10 EVD cases at 2415, up 231 cases in 2 days since the 2184 cases reported for 9/8 in SitRep #116, suggesting 4830 possible cases around Sep. 30, and same trends continuing might see 10,000 cases by Oct. 20:

https://www.internationalsos.com/ebola/index.cfm?content_id=396&language_id=ENG

http://www.mohsw.gov.lr/documents/Liberia Ebola SitRep 116 Sept 8, 2014.pdf

 

[franzpick]

Re: Liberia: 231 new cases in 2 days doubles to 4830 in 20 days:

Re: Liberia: 231 new cases in 2 days doubles to 4830 in 20 days:

If sudden 100%-plus increases like these in the daily new case rates are not temporary overstatements resulting from difficulties and errors in data capture, classification and reporting, we may be seeing the beginning of a runaway infection rate in an already out-of-control epidemic that will only become worse as sick and the unsymptomatic flee a deteriorating locale, contributing to further contact-spread, and as underequipped and overwhelmed medical personnel also see the necessity to flee.