tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
JMIR Public Health Surveill
. 2021 Jan 19.
doi: 10.2196/20335. Online ahead of print.
Evaluating Apple Inc. Mobility Trend Data Related to the COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan
Junko Kurita[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yoshiyuki Sugishita[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Tamie Sugawara[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yasushi Ohkusa[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: In Japan, as a countermeasure against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, both the national and local governments issued voluntary restrictions against going out (VRGs) from residences at the end of March 2020 in preference to the lockdowns instituted in European and North American countries.
Objective: We investigated the associations in excursion information provided by Apple Inc. and estimated an effective reproduction number R(t).
Methods: We regressed R(t) on a polynomial function of daily Apple data, estimated using the whole period, and analyzed sub-periods delimited by March 10, 2020.
Results: In the estimation results, R(t) = 1.72 when VRG ceased and mobility reverted to a normal level. However, the critical level of R(t) < 1 was obtained at 89.3% of normal mobility.
Conclusions: Results indicate that the normal number of trips should decrease by 10% until herd immunity is achieved, but that full VRGs might not be necessary for avoiding re-emergence of the outbreak.
. 2021 Jan 19.
doi: 10.2196/20335. Online ahead of print.
Evaluating Apple Inc. Mobility Trend Data Related to the COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan
Junko Kurita[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yoshiyuki Sugishita[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Tamie Sugawara[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yasushi Ohkusa[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33481755
- DOI: 10.2196/20335
Abstract
Background: In Japan, as a countermeasure against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, both the national and local governments issued voluntary restrictions against going out (VRGs) from residences at the end of March 2020 in preference to the lockdowns instituted in European and North American countries.
Objective: We investigated the associations in excursion information provided by Apple Inc. and estimated an effective reproduction number R(t).
Methods: We regressed R(t) on a polynomial function of daily Apple data, estimated using the whole period, and analyzed sub-periods delimited by March 10, 2020.
Results: In the estimation results, R(t) = 1.72 when VRG ceased and mobility reverted to a normal level. However, the critical level of R(t) < 1 was obtained at 89.3% of normal mobility.
Conclusions: Results indicate that the normal number of trips should decrease by 10% until herd immunity is achieved, but that full VRGs might not be necessary for avoiding re-emergence of the outbreak.