Re: Japan: 8th swine flu victim confirmed
Re: Japan: 8th swine flu victim confirmed
Health ministry: up to 760,000 new swine flu cases a day by October
Swine flu will spread at a rate of about 760,000 new cases a day once infection reaches the 20 percent mark, predicted to come at the end of next month, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry estimates.
The ministry has instructed prefectural governments across the country to extend clinic hours at night and work out rules on accepting swine flu patients in serious condition at medical institutions.
The prediction was made based on the spread patterns of swine and seasonal influenza in Japan and overseas. If 20 percent of people in Japan suffer from new strain of flu, the number of those who start to show symptoms of the disease will surpass 100,000 a day by the fifth week of the epidemic. Over the Aug. 17-23 period, which is believed to be the third or fourth week of the epidemic, there are believed to have been about 150,000 patients with swine flu, according to the National Institute of Infectious Diseases.
The ministry estimates that up to 762,000 people could begin to suffer from swine flu a day when the epidemic peaks, possibly in the ninth week between late September and early October, and about 46,400 people will be hospitalized daily.
The number of patients newly hospitalized a day is estimated to be over 10,000 between the 10 and 14th week of the epidemic. Some 38,000, or 0.15 percent of the total patients are likely to fall in serious condition.
If the disease rate rises to 30 percent, up to 69,800 people are estimated to be hospitalized a day.
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/national/news/20090829p2a00m0na001000c.html