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January 2007 vs. January 2006

S

scottmcpherson

Resident
For the group --

Just curious -- how is 2007 shaping up, as opposed to 2006? Were things this intense this time last year? Was the virus this widespread this early in the year?

I did not go down this rabbit hole until March of last year, so I am trying to get a feel for how things are going vs. how they went last year.
 
Re: January 2007 vs. January 2006

Last year at this time news was dominated by the outbreak in Turkey. The first cases were confirmed at the beginning of the year, and there were new cases or suspect cases almost daily. 21 cases were confirmed in Turkey (although Weybridge could only confirm 12 of the 21).

That was followed by H5N1 in birds in many countries in February, as well as human cases in Azerbaijan and Iraq.
 
Re: January 2007 vs. January 2006

scottmcpherson said:
For the group --

Just curious -- how is 2007 shaping up, as opposed to 2006? Were things this intense this time last year? Was the virus this widespread this early in the year?

I did not go down this rabbit hole until March of last year, so I am trying to get a feel for how things are going vs. how they went last year.
Click to expand...

Here is a quick tabulation of WHO confirmed cases (generally based on onset dates):

December 2005: 11
January 2006: 19
February 2006: 9
March 2006: 21

-----
December 2006: 4
January 2007: 5 (to date)

------

Although not reported, the application of Tamiflu to suspected patients is probably more widespread now then it was a year ago. This might affect the number of confirmed cases in December2006/January 2007.
 
Re: January 2007 vs. January 2006

Last year as Niman point it out there was the Anatolia outbreak in Turkey
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2464&highlight=Anatolia

The major stress for me was the situation in Azerbaijan made public only few months later. The HCW where working under Phase 4 guidelines and Dr Monto proposal in January 2005 gave great results.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6676

Now, to take Barry's analogy, the pot is heating, we see more bubbles of individual cases and more bigger bubbles of clusters.

But we are not at the boiling point still.

Most of those human cases comes from avians or mammals, some call it vertical transmission.

A pandemic unfold as lateral transmission that is human to human.

Up to now the bug dies after three transmissions. At least publically.

New strain has been identified and the situation is heating.

The main difference this year from last year IMO is that virulence of previous not so offensive bugs are on the rise.
(Chickungunya, Hemorragic Dengue, Japanese Encephalitis, even Norwalk and MRSA, etc..)

Somehow, the virulence factors of bugs have increase, specially the ones carried by the Aedes Mosquitoes is worrysome.

I believe that we have to learn good hygiene habbits more than ever, how to repel mosquitoes, how to discern the symptoms of different infections, learn how to treat those, raise our preps and keep the focus on the different strains of H5N1.

One thing is sure for me, we will have to do more deep breathing this year than last year.
 
Re: January 2007 vs. January 2006

we had the 3e9 funding debate in late 2005, many experts gave
statements how dangerous H5N1 were.
Also WHO funding the task force unit.
Forum traffic was high.

a forum poll for the probability of a pandemic in
that year showed (0-10%,10-20%,...,90-100%)

2006: 12,7,23,13,17,25,10,8,9,10 = 51.6 (134)
2007: 7,12,7,10,10,15,6,4,1,1 = 43.8 (73)


(reposted)
 
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