tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Public Health (Oxf)
. 2020 Sep 15;fdaa158.
doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdaa158. Online ahead of print.
Risk of severe coronavirus disease in imported and secondary cases in Zhejiang province, China
Fan He[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiaopeng Shang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Tiehong Fu[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Junfen Lin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Fudong Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yinwei Qiu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chen Wu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhen Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: To our knowledge, no previous studies have focused on determining whether the virulence and case fatality rate of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) decreases as the virus continues to spread. Hence, our aim was to retrospectively explore the differences in the risk of severe or critical COVID-19 among imported, secondary and tertiary cases in Zhejiang, China.
Methods: We categorized COVID-19 cases reported by hospitals in Zhejiang as first-, second- and third-generation cases. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to compare disease severity and case generation.
Results: Of 1187 COVID-19 cases, 227 (19.1%, 95% CI: 16.9-21.4) manifested severe or critical illness. The adjusted risk difference for severe or critical illness was lower for second- (odds ratio (OR) = 0.84, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52-1.36) and third-generation (OR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.37-0.83) cases than for first-generation cases. Compared with hospitalized patients, cases identified at centralized isolation locations (OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.40-0.97) and those identified through active search or gateway screening (OR = 0.28, 95% CI: 0.08-1.04) were at a lower risk of severe or critical illness.
Conclusions: Second- and third-generation cases of COVID-19 have a lower risk of developing severe or critical illness than first-generation cases.
Keywords: COVID-19; community-acquired infections; coronavirus disease; odds ratio; risk assessment.
. 2020 Sep 15;fdaa158.
doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdaa158. Online ahead of print.
Risk of severe coronavirus disease in imported and secondary cases in Zhejiang province, China
Fan He[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiaopeng Shang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Tiehong Fu[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Junfen Lin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Fudong Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yinwei Qiu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chen Wu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhen Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32930793
- DOI: 10.1093/pubmed/fdaa158
Abstract
Background: To our knowledge, no previous studies have focused on determining whether the virulence and case fatality rate of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) decreases as the virus continues to spread. Hence, our aim was to retrospectively explore the differences in the risk of severe or critical COVID-19 among imported, secondary and tertiary cases in Zhejiang, China.
Methods: We categorized COVID-19 cases reported by hospitals in Zhejiang as first-, second- and third-generation cases. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to compare disease severity and case generation.
Results: Of 1187 COVID-19 cases, 227 (19.1%, 95% CI: 16.9-21.4) manifested severe or critical illness. The adjusted risk difference for severe or critical illness was lower for second- (odds ratio (OR) = 0.84, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52-1.36) and third-generation (OR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.37-0.83) cases than for first-generation cases. Compared with hospitalized patients, cases identified at centralized isolation locations (OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.40-0.97) and those identified through active search or gateway screening (OR = 0.28, 95% CI: 0.08-1.04) were at a lower risk of severe or critical illness.
Conclusions: Second- and third-generation cases of COVID-19 have a lower risk of developing severe or critical illness than first-generation cases.
Keywords: COVID-19; community-acquired infections; coronavirus disease; odds ratio; risk assessment.