tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Med Virol. 2020 Feb 25. doi: 10.1002/jmv.25723. [Epub ahead of print] Early Phylogenetic Estimate of the Effective Reproduction Number Of Sars-CoV-2.
Lai A[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP], Bergna A[SUP]1[/SUP], Acciarri C[SUP]1[/SUP], Galli M[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP], Zehender G[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2,[/SUP][SUP]3[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
To reconstruct the evolutionary dynamics of the 2019 novel coronavirus recently causing an outbreak in Wuhan, China, 52 SARS-CoV-2 genomes available on 04 February 2020 at GISAID were analysed. The two models used to estimate the reproduction number (coalescent-based exponential growth and a birth-death skyline method) indicated an estimated mean evolutionary rate of 7.8 x 10[SUP]-4[/SUP] subs/site/year (range 1.1x10[SUP]-4[/SUP] -15x10[SUP]-4[/SUP] ) and a mean tMRCA of the tree root of 73 days. The estimated R value was 2.6 (range 2.1-5.1), and increased from 0.8 to 2.4 in December 2019. The estimated mean doubling time of the epidemic was between 3.6 and 4.1 days. This study proves the usefulness of phylogeny in supporting the surveillance of emerging new infections even as the epidemic is growing. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
KEYWORDS:
SARS-CoV-2; evolutionary dynamics; reproductive number
PMID: 32096566 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25723
Lai A[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP], Bergna A[SUP]1[/SUP], Acciarri C[SUP]1[/SUP], Galli M[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP], Zehender G[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2,[/SUP][SUP]3[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
To reconstruct the evolutionary dynamics of the 2019 novel coronavirus recently causing an outbreak in Wuhan, China, 52 SARS-CoV-2 genomes available on 04 February 2020 at GISAID were analysed. The two models used to estimate the reproduction number (coalescent-based exponential growth and a birth-death skyline method) indicated an estimated mean evolutionary rate of 7.8 x 10[SUP]-4[/SUP] subs/site/year (range 1.1x10[SUP]-4[/SUP] -15x10[SUP]-4[/SUP] ) and a mean tMRCA of the tree root of 73 days. The estimated R value was 2.6 (range 2.1-5.1), and increased from 0.8 to 2.4 in December 2019. The estimated mean doubling time of the epidemic was between 3.6 and 4.1 days. This study proves the usefulness of phylogeny in supporting the surveillance of emerging new infections even as the epidemic is growing. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
KEYWORDS:
SARS-CoV-2; evolutionary dynamics; reproductive number
PMID: 32096566 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25723