tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Infect
. 2020 Dec 1;S0163-4453(20)30751-9.
doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.11.033. Online ahead of print.
Effect of early application of social distancing interventions on Covid-19 mortality over the first pandemic wave: an analysis of longitudinal data from 37 countries
Daniele Piovani[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Maria Nefeli Christodoulou[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Andreas Hadjidemetriou[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Katerina Pantavou[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Paraskevi Zaza[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Pantelis G Bagos[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Stefanos Bonovas[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Georgios K Nikolopoulos[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Objectives: To estimate the effect of early application of social distancing interventions on Covid-19 cumulative mortality during the first pandemic wave.
Methods: Ecological longitudinal study using multivariable negative binomial regression for panel data. Daily numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths, and data on social distancing interventions, for the 37 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were analysed.
Results: Covid-19 cumulative mortality over the first pandemic wave varied widely across countries (range, 4.16 to 855 deaths per million population). On average, one-day delay in application of mass gatherings ban was associated with an adjusted increase in Covid-19 cumulative mortality by 6.97% (95% CI, 3.45 to 10.5), whilst a one-day delay in school closures was associated with an increase of 4.37% (95% CI, 1.58 to 7.17) over the study period. We estimated that if each country had enacted both interventions one week earlier, Covid-19 cumulative mortality could have been reduced by an average of 44.1% (95% CI, 20.2 to 67.9).
Conclusions: Early application of mass gatherings ban and school closures in outbreak epicentres was associated with an important reduction in Covid-19 cumulative mortality during the first pandemic wave. These findings may support policy decision making.
Keywords: 2019-nCoV; Covid-19; SARS-CoV-2; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
. 2020 Dec 1;S0163-4453(20)30751-9.
doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.11.033. Online ahead of print.
Effect of early application of social distancing interventions on Covid-19 mortality over the first pandemic wave: an analysis of longitudinal data from 37 countries
Daniele Piovani[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Maria Nefeli Christodoulou[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Andreas Hadjidemetriou[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Katerina Pantavou[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Paraskevi Zaza[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Pantelis G Bagos[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Stefanos Bonovas[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Georgios K Nikolopoulos[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33275956
- DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.11.033
Abstract
Objectives: To estimate the effect of early application of social distancing interventions on Covid-19 cumulative mortality during the first pandemic wave.
Methods: Ecological longitudinal study using multivariable negative binomial regression for panel data. Daily numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths, and data on social distancing interventions, for the 37 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were analysed.
Results: Covid-19 cumulative mortality over the first pandemic wave varied widely across countries (range, 4.16 to 855 deaths per million population). On average, one-day delay in application of mass gatherings ban was associated with an adjusted increase in Covid-19 cumulative mortality by 6.97% (95% CI, 3.45 to 10.5), whilst a one-day delay in school closures was associated with an increase of 4.37% (95% CI, 1.58 to 7.17) over the study period. We estimated that if each country had enacted both interventions one week earlier, Covid-19 cumulative mortality could have been reduced by an average of 44.1% (95% CI, 20.2 to 67.9).
Conclusions: Early application of mass gatherings ban and school closures in outbreak epicentres was associated with an important reduction in Covid-19 cumulative mortality during the first pandemic wave. These findings may support policy decision making.
Keywords: 2019-nCoV; Covid-19; SARS-CoV-2; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.