tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Clin Immunol
. 2020 Jul 13.
doi: 10.1007/s10875-020-00821-7. Online ahead of print.
Prediction Model Based on the Combination of Cytokines and Lymphocyte Subsets for Prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 Infection
Ying Luo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Liyan Mao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xu Yuan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ying Xue[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Qun Lin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Guoxing Tang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Huijuan Song[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Feng Wang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Ziyong Sun[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: There are currently rare satisfactory markers for predicting the death of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of this study is to establish a model based on the combination of serum cytokines and lymphocyte subsets for predicting the prognosis of the disease.
Methods: A total of 739 participants with COVID-19 were enrolled at Tongji Hospital from February to April 2020 and classified into fatal (n = 51) and survived (n = 688) groups according to the patient's outcome. Cytokine profile and lymphocyte subset analysis was performed simultaneously.
Results: The fatal patients exhibited a significant lower number of lymphocytes including B cells, CD4[SUP]+[/SUP] T cells, CD8[SUP]+[/SUP] T cells, and NK cells and remarkably higher concentrations of cytokines including interleukin-2 receptor, interleukin-6, interleukin-8, and tumor necrosis factor-α on admission compared with the survived subjects. A model based on the combination of interleukin-8 and the numbers of CD4[SUP]+[/SUP] T cells and NK cells showed a good performance in predicting the death of patients with COVID-19. When the threshold of 0.075 was used, the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction model were 90.20% and 90.26%, respectively. Meanwhile, interleukin-8 was found to have a potential value in predicting the length of hospital stay until death.
Conclusions: Significant increase of cytokines and decrease of lymphocyte subsets are found positively correlated with in-hospital death. A model based on the combination of three markers provides an attractive approach to predict the prognosis of COVID-19.
Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019; cytokines; lymphocyte subsets; prognosis; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
. 2020 Jul 13.
doi: 10.1007/s10875-020-00821-7. Online ahead of print.
Prediction Model Based on the Combination of Cytokines and Lymphocyte Subsets for Prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 Infection
Ying Luo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Liyan Mao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xu Yuan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ying Xue[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Qun Lin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Guoxing Tang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Huijuan Song[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Feng Wang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Ziyong Sun[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32661797
- DOI: 10.1007/s10875-020-00821-7
Abstract
Background: There are currently rare satisfactory markers for predicting the death of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of this study is to establish a model based on the combination of serum cytokines and lymphocyte subsets for predicting the prognosis of the disease.
Methods: A total of 739 participants with COVID-19 were enrolled at Tongji Hospital from February to April 2020 and classified into fatal (n = 51) and survived (n = 688) groups according to the patient's outcome. Cytokine profile and lymphocyte subset analysis was performed simultaneously.
Results: The fatal patients exhibited a significant lower number of lymphocytes including B cells, CD4[SUP]+[/SUP] T cells, CD8[SUP]+[/SUP] T cells, and NK cells and remarkably higher concentrations of cytokines including interleukin-2 receptor, interleukin-6, interleukin-8, and tumor necrosis factor-α on admission compared with the survived subjects. A model based on the combination of interleukin-8 and the numbers of CD4[SUP]+[/SUP] T cells and NK cells showed a good performance in predicting the death of patients with COVID-19. When the threshold of 0.075 was used, the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction model were 90.20% and 90.26%, respectively. Meanwhile, interleukin-8 was found to have a potential value in predicting the length of hospital stay until death.
Conclusions: Significant increase of cytokines and decrease of lymphocyte subsets are found positively correlated with in-hospital death. A model based on the combination of three markers provides an attractive approach to predict the prognosis of COVID-19.
Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019; cytokines; lymphocyte subsets; prognosis; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.