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INFLUENZA D'AUTUNNO, GIA' A LETTO IN 300MILA

Snowy Owl

Retired in 2010, In Memoriam
INFLUENZA D'AUTUNNO, GIA' A LETTO IN 300MILA


Gia' 300 mila italiani sono a letto con la febbe: non si tratta di influenza, ma di forme similinfluenzali favorite dagli sbalzi di temperatura.

Lo sottolinea Fabrizio Pregliasco, vilogo dell'Universita' di Milano, che anticipa che l'influenza "vera" e' attesa per Natale. Si tratta del virus delle Isole Salomone, che si prevede di intensita' media, con 5 milioni circa di casi.

"L'anno scorso avevamo detto cose simili ma siamo stati sconfessati dall'aumento della temperatura, che ha fatto ammalare meno gente".

"Naturalmente la stagione influenzale vera e propria avra' inizio almeno da dicembre in poi: e' quello il momento maggior rischio, facilitato dalla diffusione di temperature basse prolungate - spiega lo specialista all'Agi. -

In questo momento si evidenziano una serie di affezioni dovute a tantissimi virus che si sovrappongono, facilitati dagli sbalzi termici tipici dei cambiamenti di stagione.

La sintomatologia non e' cosi' evidente come quella influenzale, che da' sintomi generali e respiratori; spesso ora abbiamo solo un po' di tosse e starnuti, febbricola e forme di coinvolgimento intestinale.

Siamo in una stuazione prevista come quantita' in almeno 300mila casi". "I virus sono moltissimi, non abbiamo una vita abbastanza lunga per prenderli tutti ne' per immunizzarci contro di loro - osserva il virologo. -

Si tratta di 250 tipi con almeno altrettanti sottotipi.

Le forme caratteristiche di questo periodo non vanno sottovalutate: e' possibile evitarle attenendosi a regole di buonsenso, le piu' importanti delle quali sono cautelarsi dagli sbalzi termici, lavarsi le mani, evitare il contatto indiretto con le goccioline respiratorie, come accade con la cornetta del telefono.

L'approccio migliore per la stagione attuale e' l'automedicazione responsabile, con l'uso di farmaci sintomatici che attenuino i sintomi senza azzerarli, con un dosaggio opportuno", conclude il dottor Pregliasco. (AGI) - Roma, 22 set. -
 
Re: INFLUENZA D'AUTUNNO, GIA' A LETTO IN 300MILA

Snowy Owl - from: Fabrizio Pregliasco, virologo dell'Universita' di Milano
...
Lo sottolinea Fabrizio Pregliasco, virologo dell'Universita' di Milano, che anticipa che l'influenza "vera" e' attesa per Natale. Si tratta del virus delle Isole Salomone, che si prevede di intensita' media, con 5 milioni circa di casi.
Please, can an expert answer to this questions:
How dr. Pregliasco (from WHO info?) can be so sure that this year North hemisphere strain will be "the virus from Solomon islands"?
Exist an flu virus outbreak in a Northen hemisphere?
Is it an speculation extrapolated from this year Southern hemisphere flu epidemics?
Thank You!

Puo' un esperto rispondere a queste domande, prego:
Come il dr. Pregliasco (dalle informazioni del WHO?) puo' essere tanto sicuro che la variante del virus dell'influenza di quest'anno nel emisfero Nord sara' "il virus delle Isole Salomone"?
Esiste un caso epidemico di influenza nel emisfero Nord?
E' questa una speculazione estrapollata dalle epidemie influenzali di quest'anno nel emisfero Sud?
Grazie!
 
Re: INFLUENZA D'AUTUNNO, GIA' A LETTO IN 300MILA

Hi Tropical,

In L'?pid?mie de grippe s'annonce virulente, that is going on in the Francophone media, we have the same preoccupation.

In English, I witness the same anticipation, the A/H3N2 from the southern hemisphere has been more virulent than before. and as it is most often the case the southern hemisphere bug, in their winter (our summer) comes up north in our winter.

Snowy
 
Re: INFLUENZA D'AUTUNNO, GIA' A LETTO IN 300MILA

Thank You Snowy!

My remaining question is: in the worst flu cases in Aussi/NZ/SA, the patients were, or not, vaccinated previously?

...
Pour la saison 2007-2008, ? l'exclusion de la survenue d'une ?ventuelle pand?mie, en faisant l'hypoth?se que le virus pr?dominant sera A/H3N2 (celui qui a circul? en Australie en juillet et ao?t 2007) et que l'oscillation climatique pr?vue entre septembre et d?cembre 2007 sera entre neutre et froide mod?r?e (MEI cumul? = -2,4), le mod?le de pr?diction d?velopp? par Sentinelles pr?voit une taille ?pid?mique en France de 4 millions de cas avec une fourchette allant de 3,2 ? 4,7 millions sur cette p?riode. Les personnes fragiles les plus expos?es au virus de la grippe doivent donc ?tre particuli?rement vigilantes cette ann?e.

Pour rappel, le vaccin contre la grippe de la saison hivernale 2007/2008, qui prend en compte cette souche A/H3N2, sera disponible dans toutes les pharmacies ? partir de ce vendredi.

Source : Sentiweb-Hebdo, n?2007s38 du 24 septembre 2007
 
Re: INFLUENZA D'AUTUNNO, GIA' A LETTO IN 300MILA

Hi tropical,

From memory,

The variant A/H3N2 was NOT in the trivalent vaccine of Austral Fall.

cf to
Australia: 3 children die from severe form of flu (
multipage.gif
1 2 3)

Snowy
 
Re: INFLUENZA D'AUTUNNO, GIA' A LETTO IN 300MILA

From memory,
The variant A/H3N2 was NOT in the trivalent vaccine of Austral Fall.

Hi Snowy (thank you),
I dig on some mine FluTrackers questions/threads, and I think that:

About the variant A/H3N2 on South h., from the References, seems that it was included, but the question is: are there some drifts?

and:
the main questions (that nobody answer to me, or others) are:

1. Can we get a information if this Ausi/SA/NZ badly affected people was vaccinated with WHO 2006/7 vaccine?
___
About the variant A/H3N2 on South h., from the References, seems that it was included, but the question is: are there some drifts?
___
If: The variant A/H3N2 was NOT in the trivalent vaccine of Austral Fall.
Then:
2. Why the WHO did not take this strains from Australia/SA/NZ, and form a new vaccine, to be produced in time dec. 07 / jan. 08 for this (EU) part of the North hemisphere? -
That will save lives!
For parts of Northern h. remains 3-4 months time delay for the flu arrival!
_____________________________________________________________


References:
________________

From my threads:

1. NZ_influx of regular flu patients leaves hospital in gridlock_13sep07



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Re: NZ_influx of regular flu patients leaves hospital in gridlock_13sep07
<HR style="COLOR: #cccccc" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Please, I hope that any of the FluTrackers medical specialists about vaccines, will try to get some answer to my questions.
Thank You all!


1. Can we got a information if this Ausi/SA/NZ badly affected people was vaccinated with WHO 2006/7 vaccine?

If we know that the standard vaccine production needs 4 months, and that obviously something is not "ordinary" in the South hemisphere seasonal flu 2007 in Australia / South Africa / New Zealand,

and that the composition of the influenza vaccine for the 2007/2008 season (Northern Hemisphere winter) for the A Wisconsin types are
from year 2005 - 2 years old, and that A/New Caledonia is not included,

and that in the European part of the Northen hemisphere, the flu coming in january/february = after 4 months from now;

2. Why the WHO did not take this strains from Australia/SA/NZ, and form a new vaccine, to be produced in time dec. 07 / jan. 08 for this part of the North hemisphere?
That will save lives!

And also, if this happens in well ordinate countries with an ordinary seasonal flu, what will happen if pandemic came?

3. One Flu Tracker thread debated about mandatory shots.
Is it finaly came a moment when must be said, and set, that school children must be vaccinated also?

Reference text from:

This thread:
"'code red gridlock', meaning the hospital is full and is unable to accept any further patients.
A spokesperson says the hospital has been struggling to cope since June.
It is asking people with non-urgent illnesses to go to their doctors or an after hours clinic.
No one has died here, but businesses and schools have been affected.
Southbridge primary school ....had up to a quarter of its pupils away due to the flu."
____

2007/2008 Influenza Season - Northern Hemisphere
(set in Geneva on the 15 February 2007.)

an A/Solomon Islands/3/2006 (H1N1)-like virus
an A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2)-like virus*
Candidate vaccine viruses include:
* A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2) and A/Hiroshima/52/2005
___

From "Anne Z.":
...Nine Australians have died so far of the A-type Wisconsin strain.
...Virologist Lance Jennings says at least four types are circulating, the main type being a New Caledonia virus, he advises people to be immunised.
___

From Flu Trackers, "Florida1":
Re: Seasonal Flu Vaccine - Fall 2007

2007/2008 Influenza Season - Northern Hemisphere

The composition of the influenza vaccine for the 2007/2008 season (Northern Hemisphere winter) was announced by the World Health Organization in Geneva on the 15 February 2007.
Accordingly, it is recommended that the vaccines to be used in the 2006-07 season (northern hemisphere winter) contain the following:
  • an A/Solomon Islands/3/2006 (H1N1)-like virus
  • an A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2)-like virus*
  • a B/Malaysia/2506/2004-like virus
Candidate vaccine viruses include:
* A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2) and A/Hiroshima/52/2005

2007 Influenza Season - Southern Hemisphere

The composition of the influenza vaccine for the 2007 season (Southern Hemisphere winter) was announced by the World Health Organization in Geneva in September 2006.
It is recommended that vaccines to be used in the 2007 season (southern hemisphere winter) contain the following:
  • an A/New Caledonia/20/99(H1N1)-like virus
  • an A/Winconsin/67/2005(H3N2)-like virus,*
  • a B/Malaysia/2506/2004-like virus
*The currently used vaccine viruses are A/Winconsin/67/2005 and A/Hiroshima/52/2005.

http://www.hpa.org.uk/infections/top...accinecomp.htm
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and:
2. Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?



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Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?


<HR style="COLOR: #cccccc" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Australia, Aug. 10-22, 2007.
extracts from Flu Wiki
Australia Flu Season - 2007
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1566
...<!-- Hotlist crap -->
Video: Medical centres struggle to cope with flu patients Transcript: <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
http://www.abc.net.a... <o:p></o:p>
KERRY O'BRIEN: The flu season of course, hits households across the country every winter, but 2007 is shaping up as a tough one. Officially, six children and one adult have died from flu this year, but the experts say the true toll is much more devastating with flu contributing to the deaths of hundreds of others, particularly the elderly, so far this winter. Hospital emergency centres and doctors' surgeries are struggling to cope with the influx of patients, prompting a call for urgent action to prevent further cases.

"Is this an unshakable fact?" - Harold Geneen, on Managing <o:p></o:p>



<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>
by: anon.yyz @ Wed Aug 22, 2007 at 11:36:09 AM CDT<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
Comments from some sick folks <o:p></o:p>
Here are some comments made on a news site in Australia concerning the flu. Most are saying it is taking two plus weeks to recover. One commenter said 5 coworkers who had gotten the vaccine had gotten sick anyway. <o:p></o:p>
http://blogs.news.co...<o:p></o:p>



<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>
by: Okieman @ Mon Aug 20, 2007 at 19:43:02 PM CDT <o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
wife has flu <o:p></o:p>
my wife had her call from doctor tonight confirming diagnosis, - confirmed as flu - she is extremely ill, slept for three days straight, temp around 40 degrees Celsius, incessant cough, aches and pains, lethargy, asthma. I have had flu vaccine and perfectly fine - please to our brothers and sisters in the US, have your vaccinations - this seasonal flu is virulent and everywhere. Hospital emergency rooms are buckling under pressure. Prescriptions given to my wife include prodeine forte, antibiotics (we are still waiting for results on possible pneumonia)and prednisilone. <o:p></o:p>
Everybody is talking about flu epidemic here in South Australia. My sister is an immunization nurse and she is very busy doing vaccinations. CSL (drug co) is giving her free vaccinations for the disadvantaged, ie those who can not afford the injection.<o:p></o:p>



<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>
by: Julian @ Wed Aug 22, 2007 at 06:51:02 AM CDT <o:p></o:p>



<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>
by: you @ soon<o:p></o:p>
?<o:p></o:p>
partially collapsed lungs <o:p></o:p>
latest diagnosis is she has partially colaped lungs and may need to be hospitalized. I have never seen a flu like this.



<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>
by: Julian @ Sat Aug 25, 2007 at 01:17:23 AM CDT <o:p></o:p>
[ Parent ] <o:p></o:p>
Several alarm bells are ringing for me. <o:p></o:p>
Health Care workers are usually under alot of pressure from their employers to be vaccinated (at least in Canada). If more fall ill, it is more certain that the vaccine isn't preventing illness. <o:p></o:p>
I still think the chief medical officer stating that the Tamiflu stockpile will be released (and then being over-ruled), plus the Aug 2 suggestion that Queenlanders wear masks out in public are the two things that set this aside as unusual for me. <o:p></o:p>
It is "something", but what exactly?<o:p></o:p>



<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>
by: Jody @ Fri Aug 17, 2007 at 19:20:55 PM CDT<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
Yet to peak <o:p></o:p>
Comment: Good article, worth reading <o:p></o:p>
Flu season yet to peak: specialists <o:p></o:p>
The virulent strain of influenza sweeping Australia this winter is likely to claim more lives before it burns out, a flu specialist has warned. <o:p></o:p>
[snip] <o:p></o:p>
"This year seems to be different and more severe than we've seen in a while," said Prof MacIntyre, a senior researcher at the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance. <o:p></o:p>
"And the numbers are still yet to peak. It's certainly possible, and maybe even likely, that more people, even healthy people, could die. <o:p></o:p>
[snip] <o:p></o:p>
Most infections have been linked to two different strains of influenza A. Both circulate each year but this season the strain known as H3N2 has been most virulent, and was behind the complication-related deaths of three Western Australian children. <o:p></o:p>
The other strain, called H1N1, has been linked to 30 per cent of cases, and is believed to be responsible for the other two child deaths in Victoria and Queensland. <o:p></o:p>
[snip] <o:p></o:p>
Prof MacIntyre said each strain mutates a little each season, with small, subtle changes in severity that can "surprise" the immune system in un-immunised people. <o:p></o:p>
"Influenza is fluid and changing, and sometimes these small changes, as we're seeing now, make a virus spread and cause a lot more death and sickness than other viruses," she said. <o:p></o:p>
Professor Anne Kelso, director of the Melbourne-based World Health Organisation Influenza Centre, said NSW, Queensland and Western Australia were all recording unusually high flu numbers. <o:p></o:p>
However, detailed lab tests on this year's strains had not found anything "particularly nasty" to cause alarm, she said. <o:p></o:p>
"What we've got is a bit of flu and tragic deaths but no sign yet that something particularly unusual is going on," Prof Kelso said. <o:p></o:p>
[snip] <o:p></o:p>
http://www.theage.co...<o:p></o:p>

<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>
by: Okieman @ Fri Aug 10, 2007 at 07:40:07 AM CDT <o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>



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Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?
<HR style="COLOR: #cccccc" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by tropical
Thank You all for your answers.

**snipped**

than maybe we can start to think that in the meantime in Australia came up some new subtype drifted version of regular flu this year (one year after the production of the trivalent 2006 flu vaccine)?
There are no informations of the analysed substrains from the recent victims.
Maybe the informations are not for general public, or there is no different substrain?
But if it is, will it be implement for a new 2007 vaccine, or is "too late"?

Thank You!


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For the USA, the short answer is no - don't know about other country's production. Per the CDC website....


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Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?
<HR style="COLOR: #cccccc" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->The two hemispheres got the same vaccine recipes. The 2006-07 flu seasonal formulation in the Northern Hemisphere is the same as the 2007 Southern Hempsihere cocktail; which I thought interesting at the time.

The question is, are the two subtypes in line with the WHO recommendations? Did they predict the Super Bowl teams back in March? Or did the viruses drift away from the WHO targets?

From previous reports, we know that 30% of the Aussie flu cases are H1N1, which leaves 70% as H3N2. So, we are right to ask, which one drifted furthest away Down Under? Recall also that this past season's B was not on target; news stories indicated about 67% of the US B cases were not a match for the WHO target, as seems to be the case in 2005-06 as well.

Below is straight from WHO.

(Northern)
The 2006--07 trivalent vaccine virus strains are A/New Caledonia/20/1999 (H1N1)-like, A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2)-like, and B/Malaysia/2506/2004-like antigens. For the A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2)-like antigen, manufacturers may use the antigenically equivalent A/Hiroshima/52/2005 virus; for the B/Malaysia/2506/2004-like antigen, manufacturers may use the antigenically equivalent B/Ohio/1/2005 virus (see Influenza Vaccine Composition).

(Southern)
an A/New Caledonia/20/99(H1N1)-like virus,
an A/Wisconsin/67/2005(H3N2)-like virus (A/Wisconsin/67/2005 and A/Hiroshima/52/2005 were used at the time),
a B/Malaysia/2506/2004-like virus


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Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?
<HR style="COLOR: #cccccc" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by tropical
"Australia's Flu Cases Surge in Nationwide Outbreak :
...It's not too late to vaccinate for this flu season and the vaccine covers the A strain."

What vaccine covers "this one" A "sub?" strain?
The WHO 2006/2007 trivalent vaccine, the new one WHO 2007/2008, or maybe no one?

Thank You!


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The tri-valent vaccine covers two type A serotypes (H3N2 and H1N1), so it covers seasonal flu in Australia (also covers influenza B).


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From FluTrackers threads:

From Flu Trackers, "Florida1":
Re: Seasonal Flu Vaccine - Fall 2007

2007/2008 Influenza Season - Northern Hemisphere

The composition of the influenza vaccine for the 2007/2008 season (Northern Hemisphere winter) was announced by the World Health Organization in Geneva on the 15 February 2007.
Accordingly, it is recommended that the vaccines to be used in the 2006-07 season (northern hemisphere winter) contain the following:
  • an A/Solomon Islands/3/2006 (H1N1)-like virus
  • an A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2)-like virus*
  • a B/Malaysia/2506/2004-like virus
Candidate vaccine viruses include:
* A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2) and A/Hiroshima/52/2005

2007 Influenza Season - Southern Hemisphere

The composition of the influenza vaccine for the 2007 season (Southern Hemisphere winter) was announced by the World Health Organization in Geneva in September 2006.
It is recommended that vaccines to be used in the 2007 season (southern hemisphere winter) contain the following:
  • an A/New Caledonia/20/99(H1N1)-like virus
  • an A/Winconsin/67/2005(H3N2)-like virus,*
  • a B/Malaysia/2506/2004-like virus
*The currently used vaccine viruses are A/Winconsin/67/2005 and A/Hiroshima/52/2005.

http://www.hpa.org.uk/infections/top...accinecomp.htm
 
Re: INFLUENZA D'AUTUNNO, GIA' A LETTO IN 300MILA

Tropical: sintax lapsus auto-correction:
___
If: The variant A/H3N2 WAS in the trivalent vaccine of Austral Fall.
Then:
...
 
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