tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Infect Dis Poverty
. 2022 Sep 6;11(1):95.
doi: 10.1186/s40249-022-01019-2.
Optimization of COVID-19 prevention and control measures during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics: a model-based study
Lingcai Kong[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Mengwei Duan[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Jin Shi[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Jie Hong[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Xuan Zhou[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Xinyi Yang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Zheng Zhao[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Jiaqi Huang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Xi Chen[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yun Yin[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Ke Li[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yuanhua Liu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Jinggang Liu[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Xiaozhe Wang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Po Zhang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Xiyang Xie[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Fei Li[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Zhaorui Chang[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Zhijie Zhang[SUP] 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: The continuous mutation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has made the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic complicated to predict and posed a severe challenge to the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympics held in February and March 2022.
Methods: During the preparations for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, we established a dynamic model with pulse detection and isolation effect to evaluate the effect of epidemic prevention and control measures such as entry policies, contact reduction, nucleic acid testing, tracking, isolation, and health monitoring in a closed-loop management environment, by simulating the transmission dynamics in assumed scenarios. We also compared the importance of each parameter in the combination of intervention measures through sensitivity analysis.
Results: At the assumed baseline levels, the peak of the epidemic reached on the 57th day. During the simulation period (100 days), 13,382 people infected COVID-19. The mean and peak values of hospitalized cases were 2650 and 6746, respectively. The simulation and sensitivity analysis showed that: (1) the most important measures to stop COVID-19 transmission during the event were daily nucleic acid testing, reducing contact among people, and daily health monitoring, with cumulative infections at 0.04%, 0.14%, and 14.92% of baseline levels, respectively (2) strictly implementing the entry policy and reducing the number of cases entering the closed-loop system could delay the peak of the epidemic by 9 days and provide time for medical resources to be mobilized; (3) the risk of environmental transmission was low.
Conclusions: Comprehensive measures under certain scenarios such as reducing contact, nucleic acid testing, health monitoring, and timely tracking and isolation could effectively prevent virus transmission. Our research results provided an important reference for formulating prevention and control measures during the Winter Olympics, and no epidemic spread in the closed-loop during the games indirectly proved the rationality of our research results.
Keywords: COVID-19; Dynamic model; Prevention and control measure; The Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics.
. 2022 Sep 6;11(1):95.
doi: 10.1186/s40249-022-01019-2.
Optimization of COVID-19 prevention and control measures during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics: a model-based study
Lingcai Kong[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Mengwei Duan[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Jin Shi[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Jie Hong[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Xuan Zhou[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Xinyi Yang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Zheng Zhao[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Jiaqi Huang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Xi Chen[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yun Yin[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Ke Li[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yuanhua Liu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Jinggang Liu[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Xiaozhe Wang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Po Zhang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Xiyang Xie[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Fei Li[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Zhaorui Chang[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Zhijie Zhang[SUP] 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 36068625
- DOI: 10.1186/s40249-022-01019-2
Abstract
Background: The continuous mutation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has made the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic complicated to predict and posed a severe challenge to the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympics held in February and March 2022.
Methods: During the preparations for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, we established a dynamic model with pulse detection and isolation effect to evaluate the effect of epidemic prevention and control measures such as entry policies, contact reduction, nucleic acid testing, tracking, isolation, and health monitoring in a closed-loop management environment, by simulating the transmission dynamics in assumed scenarios. We also compared the importance of each parameter in the combination of intervention measures through sensitivity analysis.
Results: At the assumed baseline levels, the peak of the epidemic reached on the 57th day. During the simulation period (100 days), 13,382 people infected COVID-19. The mean and peak values of hospitalized cases were 2650 and 6746, respectively. The simulation and sensitivity analysis showed that: (1) the most important measures to stop COVID-19 transmission during the event were daily nucleic acid testing, reducing contact among people, and daily health monitoring, with cumulative infections at 0.04%, 0.14%, and 14.92% of baseline levels, respectively (2) strictly implementing the entry policy and reducing the number of cases entering the closed-loop system could delay the peak of the epidemic by 9 days and provide time for medical resources to be mobilized; (3) the risk of environmental transmission was low.
Conclusions: Comprehensive measures under certain scenarios such as reducing contact, nucleic acid testing, health monitoring, and timely tracking and isolation could effectively prevent virus transmission. Our research results provided an important reference for formulating prevention and control measures during the Winter Olympics, and no epidemic spread in the closed-loop during the games indirectly proved the rationality of our research results.
Keywords: COVID-19; Dynamic model; Prevention and control measure; The Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics.