tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Infect Dis Poverty. 2020 Feb 28;9(1):24. doi: 10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3. A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus.
Chen TM[SUP]1[/SUP], Rui J[SUP]2[/SUP], Wang QP[SUP]2[/SUP], Zhao ZY[SUP]2[/SUP], Cui JA[SUP]3[/SUP], Yin L[SUP]4[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
BACKGROUND:
As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.
METHODS:
In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R[SUB]0[/SUB]) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2.
RESULTS:
The value of R[SUB]0[/SUB] was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58.
CONCLUSIONS:
Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.
KEYWORDS:
Basic reproduction number; Mathematical model; Next generation matrix; Novel coronavirus; Transmissibility
PMID: 32111262 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3
Chen TM[SUP]1[/SUP], Rui J[SUP]2[/SUP], Wang QP[SUP]2[/SUP], Zhao ZY[SUP]2[/SUP], Cui JA[SUP]3[/SUP], Yin L[SUP]4[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
BACKGROUND:
As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.
METHODS:
In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R[SUB]0[/SUB]) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2.
RESULTS:
The value of R[SUB]0[/SUB] was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58.
CONCLUSIONS:
Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.
KEYWORDS:
Basic reproduction number; Mathematical model; Next generation matrix; Novel coronavirus; Transmissibility
PMID: 32111262 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3