tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
PLoS Curr. 2018 Jan 17;10. pii: ecurrents.outbreaks.6f03b36587ae74b11353c1127cbe7d0e. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.6f03b36587ae74b11353c1127cbe7d0e.
[h=1]Incidence Prediction for the 2017-2018 Influenza Season in the United States with an Evolution-informed Model.[/h] Du X[SUP]1[/SUP], Pascual M[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]Introduction:[/h] Seasonal influenza is responsible for a high disease burden in the United States and worldwide. Predicting outbreak size in advance can contribute to the timely control of seasonal influenza by informing health care and vaccination planning.
[h=4]Methods:[/h] Recently, a process-based model was developed for forecasting incidence dynamics ahead of the season, with the approach validated by several statistical criteria, including an accurate real-time prediction for the past 2016-2017 influenza season before it started.
[h=4]Results:[/h] Based on this model and data up to June 2017, a forecast for the upcoming 2017-2018 influenza season is presented here, indicating an above-average, moderately severe, outbreak dominated by the H3N2 subtype.
[h=4]Discussion:[/h] The prediction is consistent with surveillance data so far, which already indicate the predominance of H3N2. The forecast for the upcoming 2017-2018 influenza season reinforces the importance of the on-going vaccination campaign.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] 2017-2018; Influenza; United States; evolution; forecast; incidence; model; seasonal
PMID: 29588875 PMCID: PMC5843489 DOI: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.6f03b36587ae74b11353c1127cbe7d0e
Free full text
[h=1]Incidence Prediction for the 2017-2018 Influenza Season in the United States with an Evolution-informed Model.[/h] Du X[SUP]1[/SUP], Pascual M[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]Introduction:[/h] Seasonal influenza is responsible for a high disease burden in the United States and worldwide. Predicting outbreak size in advance can contribute to the timely control of seasonal influenza by informing health care and vaccination planning.
[h=4]Methods:[/h] Recently, a process-based model was developed for forecasting incidence dynamics ahead of the season, with the approach validated by several statistical criteria, including an accurate real-time prediction for the past 2016-2017 influenza season before it started.
[h=4]Results:[/h] Based on this model and data up to June 2017, a forecast for the upcoming 2017-2018 influenza season is presented here, indicating an above-average, moderately severe, outbreak dominated by the H3N2 subtype.
[h=4]Discussion:[/h] The prediction is consistent with surveillance data so far, which already indicate the predominance of H3N2. The forecast for the upcoming 2017-2018 influenza season reinforces the importance of the on-going vaccination campaign.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] 2017-2018; Influenza; United States; evolution; forecast; incidence; model; seasonal
PMID: 29588875 PMCID: PMC5843489 DOI: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.6f03b36587ae74b11353c1127cbe7d0e
Free full text