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Hurricane Forecasters Raise 2008 Atlantic Outlook

Sally Furniss

Well-known member
Hurricane Forecasters Raise 2008 Atlantic Outlook (Update1)
By Chris Dolmetsch
<!-- WARNING: #foreach: $wnstory.ATTS: null at /bb/data/web/templates/webmacro_en/washingtonstory.wm:266.2 --> <!-- WARNING: #foreach: $wnstory.ATTS: null at /bb/data/web/templates/webmacro_en/washingtonstory.wm:280.19 --> Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane forecasters from Colorado State University today raised the number of Atlantic storms they expect this year by two to 17, including nine hurricanes, five of them major.
The 2008 hurricane season, which ends Dec. 1, should be ``much more active'' than those between 1950 and 2000, researchers Philip Klotzbach and William Gray said. In April, they predicted 15 named storms, eight of them hurricanes, and stuck with that forecast in June.
``There has already been a very active early tropical cyclone season in the deep tropics and more favorable hurricane- enhancing sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure patterns in the tropical Atlantic have developed,'' Klotzbach said in a statement today.
The school's forecasts are followed by insurers and energy markets, although they aren't always accurate. Gray and Klotzbach overestimated the number of hurricanes by at least half in 2006 and 2007.
There have been five named storms so far this season, including Bertha, the longest-lived tropical cyclone ever, in July, and Dolly, which made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane in Texas on July 23.
Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall on the Texas coast today with maximum sustained winds of about 65 miles per hour. The storm is likely to start weakening later today as it moves inland.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Dolmetsch in New York at cdolmetsch@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: August 5, 2008 10:48 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=amel8FTv65Gs
 
Re: Hurricane Forecasters Raise 2008 Atlantic Outlook

ENSO: La Nina weakening slower than expected, to near neutral conditions by late summer (models 3.0 and 3.4 are equally divided between weak cool- and warm-phase +/- 0.25. Model output updates on Aug 15 (present one was issued in mid-June).

The forecast Atlantic storm number is slightly too high for the present and modeled water temps and West African convective conditions for late-summer and Fall 2008.

Stick to 15, per the UK Met Office forecast:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/northatlantic.html
 
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