Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Hurricane ARTHUR Public Advisory
000
WTNT31 KNHC 031504
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED IN SUMMARY BLOCK TO 10 MPH
...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 78.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT.
DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90
MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO
BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE LATEST MINUMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BEGINNING THIS
EVENING.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/031504.shtml?
------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane ARTHUR Forecast Discussion
000
WTNT41 KNHC 031459
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that Arthur continues to strengthen this morning. The Air Force
plane has reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 83 kt. The
NOAA aircraft reported 91 kt from 8,000 ft, and both aircraft have
measured surface winds of around 80 kt from the SFMR. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt. Arthur is
forecast to remain in low shear and move over warm water during the
next 24 hours. This should allow for some additional
intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast now calls for
Arthur to reach category two strength prior to its landfall or
closest approach to the coast, in agreement with tightly clustered
intensity guidance. After that time, Arthur will be moving over
cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the shear is forecast to
increase as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer trough that will be
moving off the east coast of the United States. Arthur is forecast
to become a strong extratropical cyclone in 48 hours and should
steadily weaken after that.
Aircraft and radar data indicate that Arthur is moving a little
faster and appears to have turned north-northeastward, although
the motion over the last hour or two was northward. The hurricane
should turn northeastward later today and accelerate ahead of the
deep-layer trough nearing the U.S. east coast. The models are in
good agreement in showing the center of Arthur grazing the North
Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, however only a slight
westward shift in the track would bring the strongest winds inland
over eastern North Carolina. After 24 hours, the spread in the
models increases some with the GFS and HWRF faster and along the
western side of the guidance. The ECMWF is a bit slower and to the
right. The NHC forecast leans toward the faster GFS solution, but
has been adjusted a little to the east at days three through five.
The forecast track brings the center of the cyclone near or over
portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in two to three days.
Users are reminded to not focus of the exact forecast track since
the associated hazards extend well away from the center.
The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 32.4N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 33.8N 77.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 36.3N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 39.4N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 42.7N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1200Z 48.5N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/1200Z 55.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1200Z 60.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/031459.shtml?
000
WTNT31 KNHC 031504
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED IN SUMMARY BLOCK TO 10 MPH
...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 78.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT.
DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90
MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO
BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE LATEST MINUMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BEGINNING THIS
EVENING.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/031504.shtml?
------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane ARTHUR Forecast Discussion
000
WTNT41 KNHC 031459
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that Arthur continues to strengthen this morning. The Air Force
plane has reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 83 kt. The
NOAA aircraft reported 91 kt from 8,000 ft, and both aircraft have
measured surface winds of around 80 kt from the SFMR. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt. Arthur is
forecast to remain in low shear and move over warm water during the
next 24 hours. This should allow for some additional
intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast now calls for
Arthur to reach category two strength prior to its landfall or
closest approach to the coast, in agreement with tightly clustered
intensity guidance. After that time, Arthur will be moving over
cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the shear is forecast to
increase as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer trough that will be
moving off the east coast of the United States. Arthur is forecast
to become a strong extratropical cyclone in 48 hours and should
steadily weaken after that.
Aircraft and radar data indicate that Arthur is moving a little
faster and appears to have turned north-northeastward, although
the motion over the last hour or two was northward. The hurricane
should turn northeastward later today and accelerate ahead of the
deep-layer trough nearing the U.S. east coast. The models are in
good agreement in showing the center of Arthur grazing the North
Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, however only a slight
westward shift in the track would bring the strongest winds inland
over eastern North Carolina. After 24 hours, the spread in the
models increases some with the GFS and HWRF faster and along the
western side of the guidance. The ECMWF is a bit slower and to the
right. The NHC forecast leans toward the faster GFS solution, but
has been adjusted a little to the east at days three through five.
The forecast track brings the center of the cyclone near or over
portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in two to three days.
Users are reminded to not focus of the exact forecast track since
the associated hazards extend well away from the center.
The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 32.4N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 33.8N 77.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 36.3N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 39.4N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 42.7N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1200Z 48.5N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/1200Z 55.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1200Z 60.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/031459.shtml?
