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H1N1 Swine Flu Still Smoldering in U.S.

tetano

tetano

Editor, Senior Moderator
More Than 300 Deaths, 2 Million New Cases in Last Month

Although 2 million new cases in a month seems like a lot, the cumulative estimates are growing much more slowly. This is consistent with reports from state and local health departments suggesting only sporadic cases popping up in most of the nation. Only in the Deep South and in Maine were regional outbreaks continuing last week.

Flu pandemics often come in waves, and there's no guarantee that the U.S. won't see a new wave of infections. The CDC is still advising people to get their H1N1 swine flu vaccine.

The latest estimates support this advice, and indicate that although flu activity is low, people continue to get infected. Serious cases continue to land people in the hospital -- and the estimated 310 deaths are 310 too many.

http://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20100315/h1n1-swine-flu-still-smoldering-in-us?src=RSS_PUBLIC
 
Re: H1N1 Swine Flu Still Smoldering in U.S.

310 dead in a month!!

Wow, what an amazing number! Amazingly low, that is. Recall that in a "normal" flu season we are losing thousands a month. And if H1N1 has "replaced" normal seasonal flu and we are only losing 300/mo, wow. That's wonderful news.

Of course the vax rate for H1N1 has been a lot higher than for seasonal flu. We can't underestimate the benefits of that vax program, in spite of what a lot of the conspirados say.

. . .and just to continue with the good news from the WebMD article tetano quoted from:

---- What's ahead? No flu expert is willing to make a firm forecast, as the disease is notorious for its unpredictability. But there's no sign of a third wave at this point, says James C. Turner, MD, president of the American College Health Association (ACHA). The ACHA conducts weekly surveillance of 197 campuses, with a total population of about 2.3 million students.

"At this point we see no definitive evidence of a third wave of influenza-like-illness disease, even on a regional basis, but we will continue to follow the surveillance data carefully," Turner says in a news release. ----

and

----One factor blunting a possible third wave of swine flu is the relative success of the vaccination program. As of mid-February, more than 86 million U.S. residents have been vaccinated against the H1N1 swine flu.

Assuming that 59 million Americans had swine flu, nearly half the nation would be immune. That's not enough to prevent a new wave -- at least half the nation remains vulnerable -- but it's a vast improvement over where we were when the U.S. epidemic peaked in October.----

Looks like the US is in pretty good shape.
 
Re: H1N1 Swine Flu Still Smoldering in U.S.

I think that the vaccine has been a good match - to date - since the 3rd wave fits into the seasonal pattern and it is under, or at, epidemic levels.

picurve09.gif




We are having a 3rd wave of A/H1N1. It is this year's seasonal flu.


<table class="table" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: left;" width="270">Influenza A</td> <td style="text-align: center;" width="150" nowrap="nowrap">173 (99.4%)</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align: left;" width="270"> A (2009 H1N1)</td> <td align="right" width="150" nowrap="nowrap">127 (73.4%) </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align: left;" width="270"> A (subtyping not performed)</td> <td align="right" width="150" nowrap="nowrap">46 (26.6%)</td></tr></tbody></table>



The concern I have at this point is the future. How good a match is the vaccine moving forward in time?
 
Re: H1N1 Swine Flu Still Smoldering in U.S.

Sharon: The concern I have at this point is the future. How good a match is the vaccine moving forward in time?

Amen.

Sometimes this thing feels like Jason in those Friday the 13th movies. Just when you think it's safe to open your eyes, that guy jumps up and causes more trouble for everyone. We can't extrapolate the clinical future from the clinical present.

Following the posts by the sequence wizards on FT makes one realize that it's a mistake to get too smug about the presently improving clinical picture. A better view into the future may come from the constant mutation rates and accumulating global variations in H1N1 the sequence wizards are tracking.
 
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