H1N1 Swine Flu Not So Catchy

[Missouriwatcher]

"The study looked at 216 two- to six-person households in which one family member came down with a confirmed case of 2009 H1N1 swine flu.

Only 13% of family members caught the flu from the infected person. Transmission rates ranged from 28% in two-person families to just 9% in six-person families.

Strikingly, children aged 18 or younger were twice as likely to catch H1N1 swine flu from an infected family member as were family members aged 19 to 50. And people over 50 were about 80% less likely to catch the flu as were younger adults.

The study appears in the Dec. 31 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine."
http://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20091230/h1n1-swine-flu-not-so-catchy

 

[mixin]

Re: H1N1 Swine Flu Not So Catchy

I always find transmission stats interesting. The US Air Force gives stats in its weekly updates on the distribution of pH1N1 cases by beneficiary status.

Averaged out just a little, active duty make up around 50%, dependent children account for about 40% and spouses are at 10%.

Assuming that the spouses are the primary caregivers for the sick kids, I had previously thought that percent would be much higher due to close contact. Apparently, though, the parents are more likely to give it to the kids than get it from the kids.

http://airforcemedicine.afms.mil/idc/groups/public/documents/afms/ctb_127770.pdf

 

[sbrooks]

Re: H1N1 Swine Flu Not So Catchy

I remember reading of ferret tests where when placed in cages 4 feet apart,
h1n1 did not jump from cage to cage as seasonal flu did.

This virus may not have reached its potential in the ability to infect people

 

[estacion]

Re: H1N1 Swine Flu Not So Catchy

I agreed with this.

Spain figures (Dec, 26th):

Exposed population: 46,661,950
Known confirmed cases: 10,895
Sentinel estimated cases: 684,020
Atack Rate(%): 1.489 %

http://www.prensa-latina.cu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=147781&Itemid=1

Argentina confirms 617 killed by influenza A (H1N1)Saturday, December 19th, 2009

December 18, 2009, 21:52 Buenos Aires, Dec 18 (Prensa Latina) Argentina's health ministry confirmed here today the death of 617 people in 21 provinces for reasons associated with the scourge of pandemic influenza A (H1N1).

Since 17 May, when he began indigenous circulation of influenza virus at 16 last December were sent to laboratories 27 thousand 267 samples, of which 11 thousand 458 were positive, said the agency.

In a report released through its website, states that the health portfolio in the reference period is one million 367 thousand recorded 179 cases of influenza-like illness, of which 13 thousand 924 required hospitalization.

The most affected group among serious cases in the study and H1N1 was confirmed for children under five years old, with a rate of 75.7 per 100 thousand, abounded official report.

rc / mpm

Thank you, Tonka!! :tiphat:

So we have raw numbers here! Let see what their are telling us:

Argentinian population (2009): 40,134,425
Positiveness lab confirmed: 11,458 / 27,267 = 0.4202
Estimated A(H1N1)v cases: 1,367,179 x 0.4202 = 574,489
A(H1N1)v deaths= 617
CFR(%) = 617x100/574.489 = 0.1074
Atack Rate(%): 100 x A(H1N1)v clinical cases / subceptible population
100 x 574,489 / 40,134,425 = 1.4314 %

Conclusions??:

• Virus has pretty skills to kill significantly (not mild).
• Fortunately for us, it appears to have dificulty to spread itself between large population (unlike in small groups: family, classroom, etc).
• By no way it has reached predicted Atack Rate: 20-30%.