tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Geohealth
. 2020 Dec 1;4(12):e2020GH000305.
doi: 10.1029/2020GH000305. eCollection 2020 Dec.
Impact of Extreme Hot Climate on COVID-19 Outbreak in India
Keerthi Sasikumar[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Debashis Nath[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Reshmita Nath[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Wen Chen[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses extreme threat to public health and economy, particularly to the nations with higher population density. The disease first reported in Wuhan, China; later, it spreads elsewhere, and currently, India emerged as COVID-19 hotspot. In India, we selected 20 densely populated cities having infection counts higher than 500 (by 15 May) as COVID-19 epicenters. Daily COVID-19 count has strong covariability with local temperature, which accounts approximately 65-85% of the explained variance; i.e., its spread depends strongly on local temperature rise prior to community transmission phase. The COVID-19 cases are clustered at temperature and humidity ranging within 27-32?C and 25-45%, respectively. We introduce a combined temperature and humidity profile, which favors rapid COVID-19 growth at the initial phase. The results are highly significant for predicting future COVID-19 outbreaks and modeling cities based on environmental conditions. On the other hand, CO[SUB]2[/SUB] emission is alarmingly high in South Asia (India) and entails high risk of climate change and extreme hot summer. Zoonotic viruses are sensitive to warming induced climate change; COVID-19 epicenters are collocated on CO[SUB]2[/SUB] emission hotspots. The COVID-19 count distribution peaks at 31.0?C, which is 1.0?C higher than current (2020) and historical (1961-1990) mean, value. Approximately, 72% of the COVID-19 cases are clustered at severe to record-breaking hot extremes of historical temperature distribution spectrum. Therefore, extreme climate change has important role in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, a strenuous mitigation measure to abate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is essential to avoid such pandemics in future.
Keywords: COVID‐19; India; climate change and extremes; population density; temperature and humidity.
. 2020 Dec 1;4(12):e2020GH000305.
doi: 10.1029/2020GH000305. eCollection 2020 Dec.
Impact of Extreme Hot Climate on COVID-19 Outbreak in India
Keerthi Sasikumar[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Debashis Nath[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Reshmita Nath[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Wen Chen[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33344871
- PMCID: PMC7742201
- DOI: 10.1029/2020GH000305
Abstract
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses extreme threat to public health and economy, particularly to the nations with higher population density. The disease first reported in Wuhan, China; later, it spreads elsewhere, and currently, India emerged as COVID-19 hotspot. In India, we selected 20 densely populated cities having infection counts higher than 500 (by 15 May) as COVID-19 epicenters. Daily COVID-19 count has strong covariability with local temperature, which accounts approximately 65-85% of the explained variance; i.e., its spread depends strongly on local temperature rise prior to community transmission phase. The COVID-19 cases are clustered at temperature and humidity ranging within 27-32?C and 25-45%, respectively. We introduce a combined temperature and humidity profile, which favors rapid COVID-19 growth at the initial phase. The results are highly significant for predicting future COVID-19 outbreaks and modeling cities based on environmental conditions. On the other hand, CO[SUB]2[/SUB] emission is alarmingly high in South Asia (India) and entails high risk of climate change and extreme hot summer. Zoonotic viruses are sensitive to warming induced climate change; COVID-19 epicenters are collocated on CO[SUB]2[/SUB] emission hotspots. The COVID-19 count distribution peaks at 31.0?C, which is 1.0?C higher than current (2020) and historical (1961-1990) mean, value. Approximately, 72% of the COVID-19 cases are clustered at severe to record-breaking hot extremes of historical temperature distribution spectrum. Therefore, extreme climate change has important role in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, a strenuous mitigation measure to abate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is essential to avoid such pandemics in future.
Keywords: COVID‐19; India; climate change and extremes; population density; temperature and humidity.