tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Front Public Health
. 2021 Dec 17;9:744819.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.744819. eCollection 2021.
Estimating COVID Risk During a Period of Pandemic Decline
Timothy J J Inglis[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Benjamin McFadden[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Anthony Macali[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: Many parts of the world that succeeded in suppressing epidemic coronavirus spread in 2020 have been caught out by recent changes in the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Australia's early success in suppressing COVID-19 resulted in lengthy periods without community transmission. However, a slow vaccine rollout leaves this geographically isolated population vulnerable to leakage of new variants from quarantine, which requires internal travel restrictions, disruptive lockdowns, contact tracing and testing surges. Methods: To assist long term sustainment of limited public health resources, we sought a method of continuous, real-time COVID-19 risk monitoring that could be used to alert non-specialists to the level of epidemic risk on a sub-national scale. After an exploratory data assessment, we selected four COVID-19 metrics used by public health in their periodic threat assessments, applied a business continuity matrix and derived a numeric indicator; the COVID-19 Risk Estimate (CRE), to generate a daily spot CRE, a 3 day net rise and a seven day rolling average. We used open source data updated daily from all Australian states and territories to monitor the CRE for over a year. Results: Upper and lower CRE thresholds were established for the CRE seven day rolling average, corresponding to risk of sustained and potential outbreak propagation, respectively. These CRE thresholds were used in a real-time map of Australian COVID-19 risk estimate distribution by state and territory. Conclusions: The CRE toolkit we developed complements other COVID-19 risk management techniques and provides an early indication of emerging threats to business continuity.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; community transmission; delta variant; epidemic risk; health intelligence; health threat assessment.
. 2021 Dec 17;9:744819.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.744819. eCollection 2021.
Estimating COVID Risk During a Period of Pandemic Decline
Timothy J J Inglis[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Benjamin McFadden[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Anthony Macali[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34976916
- PMCID: PMC8718641
- DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.744819
Abstract
Background: Many parts of the world that succeeded in suppressing epidemic coronavirus spread in 2020 have been caught out by recent changes in the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Australia's early success in suppressing COVID-19 resulted in lengthy periods without community transmission. However, a slow vaccine rollout leaves this geographically isolated population vulnerable to leakage of new variants from quarantine, which requires internal travel restrictions, disruptive lockdowns, contact tracing and testing surges. Methods: To assist long term sustainment of limited public health resources, we sought a method of continuous, real-time COVID-19 risk monitoring that could be used to alert non-specialists to the level of epidemic risk on a sub-national scale. After an exploratory data assessment, we selected four COVID-19 metrics used by public health in their periodic threat assessments, applied a business continuity matrix and derived a numeric indicator; the COVID-19 Risk Estimate (CRE), to generate a daily spot CRE, a 3 day net rise and a seven day rolling average. We used open source data updated daily from all Australian states and territories to monitor the CRE for over a year. Results: Upper and lower CRE thresholds were established for the CRE seven day rolling average, corresponding to risk of sustained and potential outbreak propagation, respectively. These CRE thresholds were used in a real-time map of Australian COVID-19 risk estimate distribution by state and territory. Conclusions: The CRE toolkit we developed complements other COVID-19 risk management techniques and provides an early indication of emerging threats to business continuity.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; community transmission; delta variant; epidemic risk; health intelligence; health threat assessment.