tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Front Public Health
. 2022 Jan 4;9:726690.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.726690. eCollection 2021.
Cost-Effectiveness of Public Health Measures to Control COVID-19 in China: A Microsimulation Modeling Study
Qiang Wang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Naiyang Shi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Jinxin Huang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Liuqing Yang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Tingting Cui[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Jing Ai[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Hong Ji[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Ke Xu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Tauseef Ahmad[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Changjun Bao[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Hui Jin[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of various public health measures in dealing with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. A stochastic agent-based model was used to simulate the progress of the COVID-19 outbreak in scenario I (imported one case) and scenario II (imported four cases) with a series of public health measures. The main outcomes included the avoided infections and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess uncertainty. The results indicated that isolation-and-quarantine averted the COVID-19 outbreak at the lowest ICERs. The joint strategy of personal protection and isolation-and-quarantine averted one more case than only isolation-and-quarantine with additional costs. The effectiveness of isolation-and-quarantine decreased with lowering quarantine probability and increasing delay time. The strategy that included community containment would be cost-effective when the number of imported cases was >65, or the delay time of the quarantine was more than 5 days, or the quarantine probability was below 25%, based on current assumptions. In conclusion, isolation-and-quarantine was the most cost-effective intervention. However, personal protection combined with isolation-and-quarantine was the optimal strategy for averting more cases. The community containment could be more cost-effective as the efficiency of isolation-and-quarantine drops and the imported cases increases.
Keywords: COVID-19; China; agent-based model; cost-effectiveness; public health measures.
. 2022 Jan 4;9:726690.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.726690. eCollection 2021.
Cost-Effectiveness of Public Health Measures to Control COVID-19 in China: A Microsimulation Modeling Study
Qiang Wang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Naiyang Shi[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Jinxin Huang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Liuqing Yang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Tingting Cui[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Jing Ai[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Hong Ji[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Ke Xu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Tauseef Ahmad[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Changjun Bao[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Hui Jin[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35059369
- PMCID: PMC8763804
- DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.726690
Abstract
This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of various public health measures in dealing with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. A stochastic agent-based model was used to simulate the progress of the COVID-19 outbreak in scenario I (imported one case) and scenario II (imported four cases) with a series of public health measures. The main outcomes included the avoided infections and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess uncertainty. The results indicated that isolation-and-quarantine averted the COVID-19 outbreak at the lowest ICERs. The joint strategy of personal protection and isolation-and-quarantine averted one more case than only isolation-and-quarantine with additional costs. The effectiveness of isolation-and-quarantine decreased with lowering quarantine probability and increasing delay time. The strategy that included community containment would be cost-effective when the number of imported cases was >65, or the delay time of the quarantine was more than 5 days, or the quarantine probability was below 25%, based on current assumptions. In conclusion, isolation-and-quarantine was the most cost-effective intervention. However, personal protection combined with isolation-and-quarantine was the optimal strategy for averting more cases. The community containment could be more cost-effective as the efficiency of isolation-and-quarantine drops and the imported cases increases.
Keywords: COVID-19; China; agent-based model; cost-effectiveness; public health measures.