French ornitotlogists say wild birds play a minor role in spread.

[HenryN]

Re: French ornitotlogists say wild birds play a minor role in spread.

I don't completely understand the importance of your statement; it would seem that, regardless of where an epidemic/epizootic occurs, that once that strain is introduced or found, that it may be transmitted via the same potential routes as any other strain of H5N1; so, even if you feel the evidence strongly points to migratory birds as being the source of the Qinghai outbreak (and there is some discussion due to the presence of captive rearing programs for Bar-headed Geese along the shores of Qinghai Lake), unless there is no possible way other than migratory birds for that virus to be transmitted from that location (e.g. planes, trains, and automobiles related to trade/smuggling/culture/etc?), that further expansion would need to be evaluated based on some of the factors mentioned previously in this thread.

Note that I am not saying that it's not possible, but that I don't understand why it has to be migratory birds, so maybe there's something fundamental that I am missing; can you fill me in on why the sequence would be singularily illuminating?

(sorry if this thread is the wrong forum to ask this question of Dr. Niman)

Here is the quick and dirty on H5N1 transport west of China. Prior to the outbreak at Qinghai Lake in May, 2005, no country west of China had EVER reported the "Asian" version of H5N1, even though it was widely circulating in China since 1996 and througout Asia south and east of China since 2003/2004. No poultry trade, exotic bird traders, egg seller, fertilizer sellers, airline passeners or any other HYPOTHETIC means of introducing H5N1 had managed to generate ANY reported H5N1 infection ANYWHERE west of China.

In May, 2005 H5N1 was reported at Qinghai Lake. This H5N1 was definitely "Asian" but also EASILY distinguished from any of the earlier Asian outbreaks. The distictions were in all 8 gene segments, and were most commonly descibed using a novel HA cleavage site of GERRRKKR, and PB2 E627K. Prior to Qinghai Lake, PB2 E627K have NEVER been found in H5N1 in a bird.

The Qinghai H5N1 was in many species of LONG RANGE MIGRATORY birds, incluidng Bar-headed geese,. which can fly OVER the Himalaya mountains and fly 1000 MILES in 24 HOURS. Many of these migratory birds spend spring in the Qinghai NATURE RESERVE and the spend the summer in Mongolia and southern Siberia. In July/August of 2005, H5N1 was identified for the FIRST TIME in southern Siberia at CHANY LAKE as well as Mongolia at ERHEL LAKE. In both cases the H5N1 was the QINGHAI STRAIN, which was GAME, SET, MATCH for H5N1 transport by migratory birds.

After that, it was clear that the massive number of infected wild birds including ASYMPTOMATIC wild birds, would fly into Europe, the Middle East, and Africa for the FIRST time in the fall and winter of 2005/2006 (in the Volga DELTA, the Danube DELTA, the Nile DELTA) Approximately 50 countries reported H5N1 for the FIRST TIME in EUROPE, the MIDDLE East, and AFRICA and ALL COUNTRIES had ONLY the QINGHAI strain. In many countries, H5N1 was ONLY in wild birds - there were NO reported cases in domestic poultry.

The story of H5N1 spread by wild birds into regions west of China could not be clearer. In 2005/2006 Hong Kong tested live markets in southern China. Of 414 isolates, ONE was Qinghai. There have been ZERO reports of Qinghai identified via quarantine. Like any H5N1, Qinghai can spread from farm to farm due to poor biosecurity, or as happened in the UK, it can be trucked into the country by a poultry distributor.

However, the VAST majority of H5N1 present in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa came via MULTIPLE independent introductions and was NOT due to to trade, fertilizer, wild birds, or any other HYPOTHEICAL means.

H5N1 is widespread in wild birds (although hard to detect in live birds) and the wild birds are the PRIMARY mode of spread, FAO pronouncements not withstanding.

The story is in the sequence, and it could not be clearer.