Giuseppe
Emeritus
Flu pandemic threat still real says Harvard professor - Telegraph
Flu pandemic threat still real says Harvard professor
The threat of a major flu pandemic has not gone away and if it is caused by a strains other than H5N1 avian influenza then scientists will not be able to combat it, a Harvard professor has warned.
By Rebecca Smith, Medical Editor
Last Updated: 2:22PM GMT 20 Feb 2009
Prof Thomas Monath said despite the worldwide economic downturn, preparations need to be stepped up if there is to be any hope of preventing millions of deaths in a pandemic.
He also warned that research efforts have been focused on the H5N1 flu which has infected 407 people and killed 254, but that another strain could trigger a pandemic and then "we would be screwed".
He said vaccine manufacturing capacity is insufficient meaning if a pandemic strain of flu emerged now it would be impossible to make enough vaccine for the world's population in time.
It is thought the H5N1 avian flu is the most likely to spark a pandemic by changing its make-up so it can spread easily between humans.
However, he said that, as the virus has been around for 13 years, complacency about how to deal with any outbreak has crept in, he warned.
There are several H5N1 vaccines that are licensed or near to being licensed but producing enough of them in a pandemic is still a problem.
"And that is if the pandemic is caused by H5N1, if its not we are screwed," Prof Monath said.
"If it's a new strain of flu it will be nine months to a year before we have got really good geared up vaccine production. We will rely on antiviral drugs first and then it is a crash effort to make a vaccine. In the meantime there will be clearly an emerging uncontained problem," he said.
"To detect it early and try to contain it in the early stages is the best chance we have got," Prof Monath added.
Prof Monath was speaking at the International Meeting on Emerging Diseases and Surveillance in Vienna, Austria.
He said there needs to be more political will and investment to scale up vaccine manufacturing capacity and develop new treatments against flu and vaccines against a pandemic.
"These viruses are smart. The risk has not gone away and we cannot let our guard down. We may be better prepared than when H5N1 first appeared but we are still clearly insufficiently prepared."
Other experts at the meeting also believe the scientific community is 'betting on the wrong horse' by continuing to focus only on H5N1.
Influenza expert Ilaria Capua said a pandemic could come from a number of flu strains.
"H5N1 may become a new pandemic but we are taking our eye of other avian flu strains which have infected humans such as H7 and H9 and historically humans have been infected with H1, H2 and H3," she said.
Ms Capua, who is director of the National Reference Library for Avian Influenza in Italy, warned that other strains such as H9 could cause a pandemic, although it is not as lethal but could still cause major disruption.
"If one in four of your population fell ill in cycles of four to six weeks then that could slow down the economy, swamp the hospitals and have major implications for day to day life," she said.
At the moment she said there was more chance of being struck by lightning than from catching H5N1 in western Europe.
"Emerging diseases are going to come and intensive research and surveillance in animals will be key to finding them early and we are practising that with H5N1 but we are still not very good at it," she said.
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<cite cite="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/4734403/Flu-pandemic-threat-still-real-says-Harvard-professor.html">Flu pandemic threat still real says Harvard professor - Telegraph</cite>The threat of a major flu pandemic has not gone away and if it is caused by a strains other than H5N1 avian influenza then scientists will not be able to combat it, a Harvard professor has warned.
By Rebecca Smith, Medical Editor
Last Updated: 2:22PM GMT 20 Feb 2009
Prof Thomas Monath said despite the worldwide economic downturn, preparations need to be stepped up if there is to be any hope of preventing millions of deaths in a pandemic.
He also warned that research efforts have been focused on the H5N1 flu which has infected 407 people and killed 254, but that another strain could trigger a pandemic and then "we would be screwed".
He said vaccine manufacturing capacity is insufficient meaning if a pandemic strain of flu emerged now it would be impossible to make enough vaccine for the world's population in time.
It is thought the H5N1 avian flu is the most likely to spark a pandemic by changing its make-up so it can spread easily between humans.
However, he said that, as the virus has been around for 13 years, complacency about how to deal with any outbreak has crept in, he warned.
There are several H5N1 vaccines that are licensed or near to being licensed but producing enough of them in a pandemic is still a problem.
"And that is if the pandemic is caused by H5N1, if its not we are screwed," Prof Monath said.
"If it's a new strain of flu it will be nine months to a year before we have got really good geared up vaccine production. We will rely on antiviral drugs first and then it is a crash effort to make a vaccine. In the meantime there will be clearly an emerging uncontained problem," he said.
"To detect it early and try to contain it in the early stages is the best chance we have got," Prof Monath added.
Prof Monath was speaking at the International Meeting on Emerging Diseases and Surveillance in Vienna, Austria.
He said there needs to be more political will and investment to scale up vaccine manufacturing capacity and develop new treatments against flu and vaccines against a pandemic.
"These viruses are smart. The risk has not gone away and we cannot let our guard down. We may be better prepared than when H5N1 first appeared but we are still clearly insufficiently prepared."
Other experts at the meeting also believe the scientific community is 'betting on the wrong horse' by continuing to focus only on H5N1.
Influenza expert Ilaria Capua said a pandemic could come from a number of flu strains.
"H5N1 may become a new pandemic but we are taking our eye of other avian flu strains which have infected humans such as H7 and H9 and historically humans have been infected with H1, H2 and H3," she said.
Ms Capua, who is director of the National Reference Library for Avian Influenza in Italy, warned that other strains such as H9 could cause a pandemic, although it is not as lethal but could still cause major disruption.
"If one in four of your population fell ill in cycles of four to six weeks then that could slow down the economy, swamp the hospitals and have major implications for day to day life," she said.
At the moment she said there was more chance of being struck by lightning than from catching H5N1 in western Europe.
"Emerging diseases are going to come and intensive research and surveillance in animals will be key to finding them early and we are practising that with H5N1 but we are still not very good at it," she said.
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. Seriously, it really did "grab" me as an analogy, and I believe it expresses the current odds of surviving an H5N1 infection as the virus currently exists in ways not conveyed by the terminology "~60% CFR". 
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