Laboratory Escapes and ?Self-fulfilling prophecy? Epidemics
By: Martin Furmanski MD
Scientist?s Working Group on Chemical and Biologic Weapons
Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation
February 17, 2014
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Public awareness of the 1977 H1N1 pandemic and its likely laboratory origins has been virtually absent. Virologists and public health officials with the appropriate sophistication were quickly aware that a laboratory release was the most likely origin, but they were content not to publicize this, aware that such embarrassing allegations would likely end the then nascent cooperation of Russian and Chinese virologists, which was vital to worldwide influenza surveillance. An abundance of caution in making such suggestions was also in their own self-interest. The 1976 ?swine flu? alarm and subsequent immunization program that proved to be unneeded caused 532 cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome and 32 deaths. It was widely considered a misadventure, and had severely damaged the public and political credibility of the virology and public health communities. An acknowledgement of a pandemic originating from their laboratories would have only worsened it. The most plausible reason for a Chinese or Russian laboratory to thaw out and begin growing a c1950 H1N1 virus in 1976-77 was as a response to the US 1976 ?swine flu? program, which resulted in a program to immunize the entire US population against H1N1 influenza virus. It was clearly a rational response for other countries with virology capabilities to explore making their own H1N1 vaccines.
Martin Furmanski, Slate | April 11, 2014 | Last Updated: Apr 11 4:14 PM ET