tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2019 Oct 6;53(10):1007-1011. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2019.10.010. [h=1][Evaluation of the application of moving epidemic method on making influenza epidemic thresholds in the 7 climate zones in China].[/h]
[Article in Chinese; Abstract available in Chinese from the publisher]
Tan YY[SUP]1[/SUP], Zeng LJ[SUP]2[/SUP], Qin Y[SUP]2[/SUP], Zheng JD[SUP]2[/SUP], Li ZJ[SUP]2[/SUP], Wang DY[SUP]3[/SUP], Chen T[SUP]3[/SUP], Feng LZ[SUP]2[/SUP], Peng ZB[SUP]2[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h] 1 Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou 215000, China. 2 Division of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China. 3 National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Chinese National Influenza Center/WHO Collaborating Center for Reference and Research on Influenza, Beijing 102206, China.
[h=3]Abstract[/h] in English, Chinese
Objective: We planned to evaluate the effectiveness of moving epidemic method (MEM) in calculating influenza epidemic threshold of 7 climatic zones in China mainland. Methods: The positive rate of influenza virus was obtained from the National Influenza Surveillance Network System from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018. We divided the 31 provinces into 7 climatic zones according to previous literatures and applied MEM to calculate the influenza epidemic threshold of 2018/2019 influenza season for these climatic zones. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated to evaluate the effectiveness of MEM. Results: Pre-epidemic threshold (the positive rate of influenza virus) varied from 9.66% (temperate zone) to 16.36% (subtropical zone) for 2018/2019 influenza season. The gap between pre-epidemic and post-epidemic thresholds was less than 5% except for plateau zone. The sensitivity was 86.16% (95CI:66.81%-98.23%), the specificity was 94.92% (95CI: 91.13%-98.41%), the positive predictive value was 89.87% (95%CI: 84.39%-94.38%), the negative predictive value was 92.96% (95%CI: 84.46%-99.17%). Conclusion: Overall, moving epidemic Method performs well in calculating influenza epidemic threshold in China, much better than the previous study.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Epidemics; Influenza, human; Moving epidemic method; Threshold limit values
PMID: 31607046 DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2019.10.010
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
[Article in Chinese; Abstract available in Chinese from the publisher]
Tan YY[SUP]1[/SUP], Zeng LJ[SUP]2[/SUP], Qin Y[SUP]2[/SUP], Zheng JD[SUP]2[/SUP], Li ZJ[SUP]2[/SUP], Wang DY[SUP]3[/SUP], Chen T[SUP]3[/SUP], Feng LZ[SUP]2[/SUP], Peng ZB[SUP]2[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h] 1 Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou 215000, China. 2 Division of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China. 3 National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Chinese National Influenza Center/WHO Collaborating Center for Reference and Research on Influenza, Beijing 102206, China.
[h=3]Abstract[/h] in English, Chinese
Objective: We planned to evaluate the effectiveness of moving epidemic method (MEM) in calculating influenza epidemic threshold of 7 climatic zones in China mainland. Methods: The positive rate of influenza virus was obtained from the National Influenza Surveillance Network System from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018. We divided the 31 provinces into 7 climatic zones according to previous literatures and applied MEM to calculate the influenza epidemic threshold of 2018/2019 influenza season for these climatic zones. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated to evaluate the effectiveness of MEM. Results: Pre-epidemic threshold (the positive rate of influenza virus) varied from 9.66% (temperate zone) to 16.36% (subtropical zone) for 2018/2019 influenza season. The gap between pre-epidemic and post-epidemic thresholds was less than 5% except for plateau zone. The sensitivity was 86.16% (95CI:66.81%-98.23%), the specificity was 94.92% (95CI: 91.13%-98.41%), the positive predictive value was 89.87% (95%CI: 84.39%-94.38%), the negative predictive value was 92.96% (95%CI: 84.46%-99.17%). Conclusion: Overall, moving epidemic Method performs well in calculating influenza epidemic threshold in China, much better than the previous study.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Epidemics; Influenza, human; Moving epidemic method; Threshold limit values
PMID: 31607046 DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2019.10.010
[Indexed for MEDLINE]