tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Eur J Epidemiol
. 2023 Feb 4.
doi: 10.1007/s10654-023-00965-x. Online ahead of print.
SARS-CoV-2 elicits non-sterilizing immunity and evades vaccine-induced immunity: implications for future vaccination strategies
Anna L Beukenhorst[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Clarissa M Koch[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 4 [/SUP], Christoforos Hadjichrysanthou[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Galit Alter[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Frank de Wolf[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Roy M Anderson[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Jaap Goudsmit[SUP] 4 7 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Neither vaccination nor natural infection result in long-lasting protection against SARS-COV-2 infection and transmission, but both reduce the risk of severe COVID-19. To generate insights into optimal vaccination strategies for prevention of severe COVID-19 in the population, we extended a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) mathematical model to compare the impact of vaccines that are highly protective against severe COVID-19 but not against infection and transmission, with those that block SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our analysis shows that vaccination strategies focusing on the prevention of severe COVID-19 are more effective than those focusing on creating of herd immunity. Key uncertainties that would affect the choice of vaccination strategies are: (1) the duration of protection against severe disease, (2) the protection against severe disease from variants that escape vaccine-induced immunity, (3) the incidence of long-COVID and level of protection provided by the vaccine, and (4) the rate of serious adverse events following vaccination, stratified by demographic variables.
Keywords: COVID-19; Control measures; Coronavirus; Herd immunity; Immunology; Infection; Influenza; Population modelling; Respiratory infections; SARS-CoV-2 pandemic; Vaccine effectiveness; Vaccines.
. 2023 Feb 4.
doi: 10.1007/s10654-023-00965-x. Online ahead of print.
SARS-CoV-2 elicits non-sterilizing immunity and evades vaccine-induced immunity: implications for future vaccination strategies
Anna L Beukenhorst[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Clarissa M Koch[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 4 [/SUP], Christoforos Hadjichrysanthou[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Galit Alter[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Frank de Wolf[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Roy M Anderson[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Jaap Goudsmit[SUP] 4 7 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 36738380
- DOI: 10.1007/s10654-023-00965-x
Abstract
Neither vaccination nor natural infection result in long-lasting protection against SARS-COV-2 infection and transmission, but both reduce the risk of severe COVID-19. To generate insights into optimal vaccination strategies for prevention of severe COVID-19 in the population, we extended a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) mathematical model to compare the impact of vaccines that are highly protective against severe COVID-19 but not against infection and transmission, with those that block SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our analysis shows that vaccination strategies focusing on the prevention of severe COVID-19 are more effective than those focusing on creating of herd immunity. Key uncertainties that would affect the choice of vaccination strategies are: (1) the duration of protection against severe disease, (2) the protection against severe disease from variants that escape vaccine-induced immunity, (3) the incidence of long-COVID and level of protection provided by the vaccine, and (4) the rate of serious adverse events following vaccination, stratified by demographic variables.
Keywords: COVID-19; Control measures; Coronavirus; Herd immunity; Immunology; Infection; Influenza; Population modelling; Respiratory infections; SARS-CoV-2 pandemic; Vaccine effectiveness; Vaccines.