Eur J Epidemiol . Non-COVID-19 deaths after social distancing in Norway

[tetano]

Eur J Epidemiol


. 2020 Nov 9.
doi: 10.1007/s10654-020-00691-8. Online ahead of print.
Non-COVID-19 deaths after social distancing in Norway


Ralph Catalano[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Joan A Casey[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Tim A Bruckner[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Alison Gemmill[SUP] 4 [/SUP]



Affiliations

• PMID: 33165759
• DOI: 10.1007/s10654-020-00691-8

Abstract

Lay persons and policy makers have speculated on how national differences in the imposition of social distancing to reduce SARS CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) infection has affected non-COVID-19 deaths. No rigorous estimation of the effect appears in the scholarly literature. We use time-series methods to compare non-COVID-19 deaths in Norway during its 9 weeks of mandated social distancing to those expected from history as well as from non-COVID-19 deaths in relatively less restricted Sweden. We estimate that 430 fewer Norwegians than expected died from causes other than COVID-19. We argue that failing to account for averted non-COVID-19 deaths will lead to an underestimate of the benefits of social distancing policies.

Keywords: Non-Covid-19 Deaths; Norway; Social Distancing.