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Estimating Influenza-Associated Deaths in the United States

A

Anne

Senior Moderator
http://www.ajph.org/cgi/content/full/99/S2/S225
free full text
[SIZE=+2]Estimating Influenza-Associated Deaths in the United States[/SIZE] <nobr>William W. Thompson, PhD</nobr>, <nobr>Matthew R. Moore, MD, MPH</nobr>, <nobr>Eric Weintraub, MPH</nobr>, <nobr>Po-Yung Cheng, PhD</nobr>, <nobr>Xiaoping Jin, MPH</nobr>, <nobr>Carolyn B. Bridges, MD</nobr>, <nobr>Joseph S. Bresee, MD, MPH</nobr> and <nobr>David K. Shay, MD, MPH</nobr>

[SIZE=-1] William W. Thompson, Po-Yung Cheng, Xiaoping Jin, Carolyn B. Bridges, Joseph S. Bresee, and David K. Shay are with the Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA. Matthew R. Moore is with the Division of Bacterial Diseases, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta. Eric Weintraub is with the Immunization Safety Office, Office of the Chief Science Officer, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta. [/SIZE]

Most estimates of US deaths associated with influenza circulation<sup> </sup>have been similar despite the use of different approaches. However,<sup> </sup>a recently published estimate suggested that previous estimates<sup> </sup>substantially overestimated deaths associated with influenza,<sup> </sup>and concluded that substantial numbers of deaths during a future<sup> </sup>pandemic could be prevented because of improvements in medical<sup> </sup>care.<sup> </sup>
We reviewed the data sources and methods used to estimate influenza-associated<sup> </sup>deaths. We suggest that discrepancies between the recent estimate<sup> </sup>and previous estimates of the number of influenza-associated<sup> </sup>deaths are attributable primarily to the use of different outcomes<sup> </sup>and methods. We also believe that secondary bacterial infections<sup> </sup>will likely result in substantial morbidity and mortality during<sup> </sup>a future influenza pandemic, despite medical progress.
 
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Re: Estimating Influenza-Associated Deaths in the United States

so, what are Doshi's estimates ?

> noone can predict

ahh. So all the work and analysis was/is invain ?
 
Re: Estimating Influenza-Associated Deaths in the United States

gsgs said:
so, what are Doshi's estimates ?

> noone can predict

ahh. So all the work and analysis was/is invain ?
Click to expand...

In April of 2008, we discussed an article by Peter Doshi here. http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=227405
<o:p> </o:p>
At the time I quipped ?This article allows Doshi to add a publication to his graduate student vita, but the article, with a naive view of a pandemic, does little to further our understanding of the nature of world-wide influenza pandemics. . .?
<o:p> </o:p>
He is still a doctoral student adding publications to his vita. See link posted by ironorehopper here: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=290790
<o:p> </o:p>
A quick read of his articles shows he takes a contrarian viewpoint, often necessary when one is trying to distinguish oneself from the rest of the graduate student pack.
 
Re: Estimating Influenza-Associated Deaths in the United States

cooperate with the rest of the pack instead of dinstinguishing from it.
 
Re: Estimating Influenza-Associated Deaths in the United States

is it reasonable to consider flu-deaths here ?
Usually they take P+I or all causes mortality and that's how the
CDC-deaths were estimated.

He somehow says those deaths were too high, but I found
no hint for how much too high.

A better measure for the burdon of a pandemic would take their
ages and health into account.


total expected number reduced life-years
plus hospital costs, pain of sick days, absenteeism.

There were estimates of the costs of a pandemic and the
costs of seasonal flu. Improve that calculation, consider
all the factors, norm it, so it can be compared with other diseases
 
Re: Estimating Influenza-Associated Deaths in the United States

did you note, how he describes the process to collect the data but
that he doesn't publish the lists ?!
Seems common in bio-science, also the lists from Simonsen,Vibaud etc.
Not useful for research, others can't use it for their own pictures
and statistics.


also:

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Material published in the American Journal of Public Health and APHA Publications is covered by copyright held by the American Public Health Association (APHA) and may not be reproduced, distributed, displayed, republished, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of APHA. Permissions are extended for the first edition only. Subsequent editions will require a new permission. Adaptation of APHA material is prohibited. Reprints or Eprints must be purchased to distribute copies of a Journal article or other APHA publication.
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blacklist APHA and those who publish there.
whitelist PLOS,EID,...
 
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