tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Epidemiol Health
. 2023 Oct 17:e2023093.
doi: 10.4178/epih.e2023093. Online ahead of print. Forecasting the effects of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia using SEIRV compartmental models
Mei Cheng Lim[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sarbhan Singh[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chee Herng Lai[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Balvinder Singh Gill[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mohd Kamarulariffin Kamarudin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Cia Vei Tan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Asrul Anuar Zulkifli[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mohamad Nadzmi Md Nadri[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nur'ain Mohd Ghazali[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sumarni Mohd Ghazali[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nur Ar Rabiah Ahmad[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jeyanthi Suppiah[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Kok Keng Tee[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Tahir Aris[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Lonny Chen Rong Qi Ahmad[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Objectives: This study aimed to develop susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-vaccinated (SEIRV) models to examine the effects of vaccination on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case trends in Malaysia during Phase 3 of the National COVID-19 Immunization Program amidst the Delta outbreak.
Methods: SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison.
Results: In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario).
Conclusion: Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemiology models; Malaysia; Vaccination.
. 2023 Oct 17:e2023093.
doi: 10.4178/epih.e2023093. Online ahead of print. Forecasting the effects of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia using SEIRV compartmental models
Mei Cheng Lim[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sarbhan Singh[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chee Herng Lai[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Balvinder Singh Gill[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mohd Kamarulariffin Kamarudin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Cia Vei Tan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Asrul Anuar Zulkifli[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mohamad Nadzmi Md Nadri[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nur'ain Mohd Ghazali[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sumarni Mohd Ghazali[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nur Ar Rabiah Ahmad[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jeyanthi Suppiah[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Kok Keng Tee[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Tahir Aris[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Lonny Chen Rong Qi Ahmad[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 37905314
- DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2023093
Objectives: This study aimed to develop susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-vaccinated (SEIRV) models to examine the effects of vaccination on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case trends in Malaysia during Phase 3 of the National COVID-19 Immunization Program amidst the Delta outbreak.
Methods: SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison.
Results: In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario).
Conclusion: Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemiology models; Malaysia; Vaccination.