tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Epidemiol Health
. 2021 May 27;e2021040.
doi: 10.4178/epih.e2021040. Online ahead of print.
Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in South Korea - a rapid assessment
Kyung-Duk Min[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sangwoo Tak[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Objectives: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a huge impact on public health and socioeconomics globally. Although non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing effectively reduced the incidence of COVID-19, especially in South Korea, demand for vaccination has increased to minimize the social costs of NPIs. This study estimated the potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination in South Korea.
Methods: A mathematical model with vaccinated-susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered compartments was used to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic. The compartments were stratified into 0-19, 20-59, and 60 years or older age groups. Based on the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency national vaccination plan for the second quarter of 2021, announced on March 15, we developed vaccination scenarios (150,000 doses per day and 100% compliance as the main scenario). Comparing scenarios without vaccination or with higher/lower vaccination rates and compliance, we estimated the numbers of COVID-19 cases that will have been prevented by vaccination.
Results: The results projected 203,135 cases within a year after April 2021 without vaccination, which would be reduced to 71,248 (64.9% decrease) by vaccination. Supposing a vaccination rate of 150,000 doses per day and 100% compliance, social distancing intervention for those aged 20 or more can be retracted after January 1, 2022.
Conclusion.: We expect COVID-19 vaccination to be effective in South Korea. Health authorities should minimize the delay with vaccination and vaccine avoidance to maximize the effectiveness of vaccination and end social distancing early.
Keywords: COVID-19; mathematical modeling; vaccine effectiveness.
. 2021 May 27;e2021040.
doi: 10.4178/epih.e2021040. Online ahead of print.
Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in South Korea - a rapid assessment
Kyung-Duk Min[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sangwoo Tak[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34082498
- DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2021040
Abstract
Objectives: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a huge impact on public health and socioeconomics globally. Although non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing effectively reduced the incidence of COVID-19, especially in South Korea, demand for vaccination has increased to minimize the social costs of NPIs. This study estimated the potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination in South Korea.
Methods: A mathematical model with vaccinated-susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered compartments was used to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic. The compartments were stratified into 0-19, 20-59, and 60 years or older age groups. Based on the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency national vaccination plan for the second quarter of 2021, announced on March 15, we developed vaccination scenarios (150,000 doses per day and 100% compliance as the main scenario). Comparing scenarios without vaccination or with higher/lower vaccination rates and compliance, we estimated the numbers of COVID-19 cases that will have been prevented by vaccination.
Results: The results projected 203,135 cases within a year after April 2021 without vaccination, which would be reduced to 71,248 (64.9% decrease) by vaccination. Supposing a vaccination rate of 150,000 doses per day and 100% compliance, social distancing intervention for those aged 20 or more can be retracted after January 1, 2022.
Conclusion.: We expect COVID-19 vaccination to be effective in South Korea. Health authorities should minimize the delay with vaccination and vaccine avoidance to maximize the effectiveness of vaccination and end social distancing early.
Keywords: COVID-19; mathematical modeling; vaccine effectiveness.