tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Engineering (Beijing)
. 2022 Feb 2.
doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.12.011. Online ahead of print.
Influenza's plummeting during the COVID-19 pandemic: The roles of mask-wearing, mobility change, and SARS-CoV-2 interference
Shasha Han[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Ting Zhang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yan Lyu[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Shengjie Lai[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Peixi Dai[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Jiandong Zheng[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Weizhong Yang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Xiao-Hua Zhou[SUP] 1 7 8 [/SUP], Luzhao Feng[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Seasonal influenza activity typically peaks in the winter months but plummeted globally during the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Unraveling lessons from influenza's unprecedented low profile is critical in informing preparedness for incoming influenza seasons. Here, we explored a country-specific inference model to estimate the effects of mask-wearing, mobility changes (international and domestic), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) interference in China, England, and the United States. We found that a one-week increase in mask-wearing intervention had a percent reduction of 11.3%-35.2% in influenza activity in these areas. The one-week mobility mitigation had smaller effects for the international (1.7%-6.5%) and the domestic community (1.6% to 2.8%). In 2020-2021, the mask-wearing intervention alone could decline percent positivity by 13.3-19.8. The mobility change alone could reduce percent positivity by 5.2-14.0, of which 79.8%-98.2% were attributed to the deflected international travel. Only in 2019-2020, SARS-CoV-2 interference had statistically significant effects. There was a reduction in percent positivity of 7.6 (2.4-14.4) and 10.2 (7.2-13.6) in northern China and England, respectively. Our results have implications for understanding how influenza evolves under non-pharmaceutical interventions and other respiratory diseases and will inform health policy and the design of tailored public health measures.
Keywords: Influenza; Mask-wearing; Mobility mitigation; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; SARS-CoV-2 interference.
. 2022 Feb 2.
doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.12.011. Online ahead of print.
Influenza's plummeting during the COVID-19 pandemic: The roles of mask-wearing, mobility change, and SARS-CoV-2 interference
Shasha Han[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Ting Zhang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yan Lyu[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Shengjie Lai[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Peixi Dai[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Jiandong Zheng[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Weizhong Yang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Xiao-Hua Zhou[SUP] 1 7 8 [/SUP], Luzhao Feng[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35127196
- PMCID: PMC8808434
- DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.12.011
Abstract
Seasonal influenza activity typically peaks in the winter months but plummeted globally during the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Unraveling lessons from influenza's unprecedented low profile is critical in informing preparedness for incoming influenza seasons. Here, we explored a country-specific inference model to estimate the effects of mask-wearing, mobility changes (international and domestic), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) interference in China, England, and the United States. We found that a one-week increase in mask-wearing intervention had a percent reduction of 11.3%-35.2% in influenza activity in these areas. The one-week mobility mitigation had smaller effects for the international (1.7%-6.5%) and the domestic community (1.6% to 2.8%). In 2020-2021, the mask-wearing intervention alone could decline percent positivity by 13.3-19.8. The mobility change alone could reduce percent positivity by 5.2-14.0, of which 79.8%-98.2% were attributed to the deflected international travel. Only in 2019-2020, SARS-CoV-2 interference had statistically significant effects. There was a reduction in percent positivity of 7.6 (2.4-14.4) and 10.2 (7.2-13.6) in northern China and England, respectively. Our results have implications for understanding how influenza evolves under non-pharmaceutical interventions and other respiratory diseases and will inform health policy and the design of tailored public health measures.
Keywords: Influenza; Mask-wearing; Mobility mitigation; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; SARS-CoV-2 interference.