tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Emerg Infect Dis
. 2022 Sep;28(13):93-104.
doi: 10.3201/eid2813.220228.
Comparison of COVID-19 Pandemic Waves in 10 Countries in Southern Africa, 2020-2021
Joshua Smith-Sreen, Bridget Miller, Alinune N Kabaghe, Evelyn Kim, Nellie Wadonda-Kabondo, Alean Frawley, Sarah Labuda, Eusébio Manuel, Helga Frietas, Anne C Mwale, Tebogo Segolodi, Pauline Harvey, Onalenna Seitio-Kgokgwe, Alfredo E Vergara, Eduardo S Gudo, Eric J Dziuban, Naemi Shoopala, Jonas Z Hines, Simon Agolory, Muzala Kapina, Nyambe Sinyange, Michael Melchior, Kelsey Mirkovic, Agnes Mahomva, Surbhi Modhi, Stephanie Salyer, Andrew S Azman, Catherine McLean, Lul P Riek, Fred Asiimwe, Michelle Adler, Sikhatele Mazibuko, Velephi Okello, Andrew F Auld
Abstract
We used publicly available data to describe epidemiology, genomic surveillance, and public health and social measures from the first 3 COVID-19 pandemic waves in southern Africa during April 6, 2020-September 19, 2021. South Africa detected regional waves on average 7.2 weeks before other countries. Average testing volume 244 tests/million/day) increased across waves and was highest in upper-middle-income countries. Across the 3 waves, average reported regional incidence increased (17.4, 51.9, 123.3 cases/1 million population/day), as did positivity of diagnostic tests (8.8%, 12.2%, 14.5%); mortality (0.3, 1.5, 2.7 deaths/1 million populaiton/day); and case-fatality ratios (1.9%, 2.1%, 2.5%). Beta variant (B.1.351) drove the second wave and Delta (B.1.617.2) the third. Stringent implementation of safety measures declined across waves. As of September 19, 2021, completed vaccination coverage remained low (8.1% of total population). Our findings highlight opportunities for strengthening surveillance, health systems, and access to realistically available therapeutics, and scaling up risk-based vaccination.
Keywords: Africa; COVID-19; COVID-19 testing; SARS-CoV-2; comparative studies; coronavirus disease; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2; southern Africa; viruses.
. 2022 Sep;28(13):93-104.
doi: 10.3201/eid2813.220228.
Comparison of COVID-19 Pandemic Waves in 10 Countries in Southern Africa, 2020-2021
Joshua Smith-Sreen, Bridget Miller, Alinune N Kabaghe, Evelyn Kim, Nellie Wadonda-Kabondo, Alean Frawley, Sarah Labuda, Eusébio Manuel, Helga Frietas, Anne C Mwale, Tebogo Segolodi, Pauline Harvey, Onalenna Seitio-Kgokgwe, Alfredo E Vergara, Eduardo S Gudo, Eric J Dziuban, Naemi Shoopala, Jonas Z Hines, Simon Agolory, Muzala Kapina, Nyambe Sinyange, Michael Melchior, Kelsey Mirkovic, Agnes Mahomva, Surbhi Modhi, Stephanie Salyer, Andrew S Azman, Catherine McLean, Lul P Riek, Fred Asiimwe, Michelle Adler, Sikhatele Mazibuko, Velephi Okello, Andrew F Auld
- PMID: 36502398
- DOI: 10.3201/eid2813.220228
Abstract
We used publicly available data to describe epidemiology, genomic surveillance, and public health and social measures from the first 3 COVID-19 pandemic waves in southern Africa during April 6, 2020-September 19, 2021. South Africa detected regional waves on average 7.2 weeks before other countries. Average testing volume 244 tests/million/day) increased across waves and was highest in upper-middle-income countries. Across the 3 waves, average reported regional incidence increased (17.4, 51.9, 123.3 cases/1 million population/day), as did positivity of diagnostic tests (8.8%, 12.2%, 14.5%); mortality (0.3, 1.5, 2.7 deaths/1 million populaiton/day); and case-fatality ratios (1.9%, 2.1%, 2.5%). Beta variant (B.1.351) drove the second wave and Delta (B.1.617.2) the third. Stringent implementation of safety measures declined across waves. As of September 19, 2021, completed vaccination coverage remained low (8.1% of total population). Our findings highlight opportunities for strengthening surveillance, health systems, and access to realistically available therapeutics, and scaling up risk-based vaccination.
Keywords: Africa; COVID-19; COVID-19 testing; SARS-CoV-2; comparative studies; coronavirus disease; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2; southern Africa; viruses.