The scary truth about bird flu
Jackie Cameron
Posted: Thu, 01 Jun 2006 16:00 | ? Moneyweb Holdings Limited, 1997-2006
With the transmission of bird flu between humans, you can expect economic growth around the world to be slashed in half and the reverberations felt through global financial markets.
Importers and exporters can expect major trade problems in general as authorities battle to stop the spread of the virus. Farmers and suppliers of chickens and related produce can expect a fall-off in demand as consumers shun them as a food source and a general panic sets in.
But it?s not just those companies and people involved in the agricultural sector who have reason to fear bird flu: along with a pandemic will come mass absenteeism as businesses are required to play a role in stemming the spread of the disease.
The travel and tourism sectors will be particularly hard hit as the potentially deadly virus sweeps the continent and the globe.
A conservative 2m to 7m people are expected to die, though at least 40m deaths are possible, if the virus develops from one that is spread by birds - and only passed on to humans where there is direct contact - to one that is shared as easily as the common flu.
That was the picture painted by business and government players at the World Economic Forum (WEF) on Africa where they were grappling with the possibility that the continent could soon become a battleground in the struggle against avian influenza.
Much of the emphasis was on how the H5N1 virus would impact on people in more rural parts of Africa, where they live close to their chickens and poultry is a major source of protein.
There is the fear that the virus will not be recognised in more remote areas timeously as well as a concern that farmers will be reluctant to slaughter chickens in preventative programmes or where the virus is detected.
But if you?re in any business, large or small, you can?t expect to overlook this risk as it will affect your bottom line, warned the top-level panel of politicians and business executives in a side discussion at the WEF.
They were quick to emphasise that panic should be avoided and that, at this stage, a bird flu pandemic is just a risk.
Nevertheless, the evidence that a pandemic is just around the corner was overwhelming.
Bird flu is just a test away
World Health Organisation official Idrissa Sow said the world is ?one last step? from a pandemic, with the bird flu virus fulfilling most of the criteria. ?Spreading easily and sustainably from humans? to humans is the last step.
So far there is no evidence that this has happened, however health authorities are concerned about a recent case in Indonesia where at least seven in a family died and contact with the bird has not been confirmed. Mutation of the virus has also not been confirmed.
?If we get mutation confirmed in the laboratory, then we are in a pandemic. This will move around the world in six months,? cautioned Sow.
Gary Cohen, president, BD Medical, Becton Dickinson and company, said no country in the world was adequately prepared for bird flu, though some are better prepared than others.
There is no guarantee any country will be able to contain bird flu if it becomes human-transmissible.
African countries, meanwhile, have been meeting to thrash out strategies, as Thoko Didiza, Minister of Public Works and formerly agriculture minister in South Africa, notes: ?There are no border gates for birds.?
She said that South Africa had achieved some success in curtailing outbreaks of other diseases in animals recently, for example foot-and-mouth and classical swine fever.
?From past experience, we have decided to slaughter (chickens) rather than vaccinate?but you need to compensate farmers or they won?t come forward,? she said.
Pharmaceutical companies, meanwhile, are working on vaccines. According to Sow, more than ten candidate vaccines were reviewed in Geneva a few weeks ago.
?However, we are still working on the Vietnam strain?and don?t know we?ll be facing the Vietnam strain,? he added.
Choosing who lives, who dies
In any event, a vaccine, when there is one, is expected to be in short supply. Issues up for consideration will include who gets vaccines and who doesn?t, though there are indications from states that they would nationalise vaccine production.
Also not to be overlooked is ensuring the disease isn?t spread by, for example, lack of hygiene with needles and poor controls in laboratories.
As Sean Cleary, MD of Strategic Concepts, SA, said: ?No-one can avoid dealing with bird flu. It won?t respect boundaries.?
High-profile business players like those attending the WEF, as frequent travellers and because they are regularly in meetings, are as vulnerable as chicken farmers in remote villages.
?The standard mid-range estimate is cutting 2% off global GDP. That would involve a halving of growth rates,? said Cleary.
Jackie Cameron
Posted: Thu, 01 Jun 2006 16:00 | ? Moneyweb Holdings Limited, 1997-2006
With the transmission of bird flu between humans, you can expect economic growth around the world to be slashed in half and the reverberations felt through global financial markets.
Importers and exporters can expect major trade problems in general as authorities battle to stop the spread of the virus. Farmers and suppliers of chickens and related produce can expect a fall-off in demand as consumers shun them as a food source and a general panic sets in.
But it?s not just those companies and people involved in the agricultural sector who have reason to fear bird flu: along with a pandemic will come mass absenteeism as businesses are required to play a role in stemming the spread of the disease.
The travel and tourism sectors will be particularly hard hit as the potentially deadly virus sweeps the continent and the globe.
A conservative 2m to 7m people are expected to die, though at least 40m deaths are possible, if the virus develops from one that is spread by birds - and only passed on to humans where there is direct contact - to one that is shared as easily as the common flu.
That was the picture painted by business and government players at the World Economic Forum (WEF) on Africa where they were grappling with the possibility that the continent could soon become a battleground in the struggle against avian influenza.
Much of the emphasis was on how the H5N1 virus would impact on people in more rural parts of Africa, where they live close to their chickens and poultry is a major source of protein.
There is the fear that the virus will not be recognised in more remote areas timeously as well as a concern that farmers will be reluctant to slaughter chickens in preventative programmes or where the virus is detected.
But if you?re in any business, large or small, you can?t expect to overlook this risk as it will affect your bottom line, warned the top-level panel of politicians and business executives in a side discussion at the WEF.
They were quick to emphasise that panic should be avoided and that, at this stage, a bird flu pandemic is just a risk.
Nevertheless, the evidence that a pandemic is just around the corner was overwhelming.
Bird flu is just a test away
World Health Organisation official Idrissa Sow said the world is ?one last step? from a pandemic, with the bird flu virus fulfilling most of the criteria. ?Spreading easily and sustainably from humans? to humans is the last step.
So far there is no evidence that this has happened, however health authorities are concerned about a recent case in Indonesia where at least seven in a family died and contact with the bird has not been confirmed. Mutation of the virus has also not been confirmed.
?If we get mutation confirmed in the laboratory, then we are in a pandemic. This will move around the world in six months,? cautioned Sow.
Gary Cohen, president, BD Medical, Becton Dickinson and company, said no country in the world was adequately prepared for bird flu, though some are better prepared than others.
There is no guarantee any country will be able to contain bird flu if it becomes human-transmissible.
African countries, meanwhile, have been meeting to thrash out strategies, as Thoko Didiza, Minister of Public Works and formerly agriculture minister in South Africa, notes: ?There are no border gates for birds.?
She said that South Africa had achieved some success in curtailing outbreaks of other diseases in animals recently, for example foot-and-mouth and classical swine fever.
?From past experience, we have decided to slaughter (chickens) rather than vaccinate?but you need to compensate farmers or they won?t come forward,? she said.
Pharmaceutical companies, meanwhile, are working on vaccines. According to Sow, more than ten candidate vaccines were reviewed in Geneva a few weeks ago.
?However, we are still working on the Vietnam strain?and don?t know we?ll be facing the Vietnam strain,? he added.
Choosing who lives, who dies
In any event, a vaccine, when there is one, is expected to be in short supply. Issues up for consideration will include who gets vaccines and who doesn?t, though there are indications from states that they would nationalise vaccine production.
Also not to be overlooked is ensuring the disease isn?t spread by, for example, lack of hygiene with needles and poor controls in laboratories.
As Sean Cleary, MD of Strategic Concepts, SA, said: ?No-one can avoid dealing with bird flu. It won?t respect boundaries.?
High-profile business players like those attending the WEF, as frequent travellers and because they are regularly in meetings, are as vulnerable as chicken farmers in remote villages.
?The standard mid-range estimate is cutting 2% off global GDP. That would involve a halving of growth rates,? said Cleary.
