Nature 461, 53-59 (3 September 2009) | doi:10.1038/nature08227
Early-warning signals for critical transitions
Marten Scheffer1, Jordi Bascompte2, William A. Brock3, Victor Brovkin5, Stephen R. Carpenter4, Vasilis Dakos1, Hermann Held6, Egbert H. van Nes1, Max Rietkerk7 & George Sugihara8
Abstract
Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.
