Although the H1N1 outbreak appears to be waning at a time when most flu seasons are just beginning, Memphis-area health officials expect the swine-flu virus to come roaring back ? possibly during an even more severe ?third wave? of infections this winter.
For now, however, local statistics on the epidemic show a sharp drop. At Le Bonheur Children?s Medical Center, weekly positive tests for H1N1 have fallen to less than one-fifth the nearly 450 reported in early September. And the emergency department is seeing barely half the patients it did six weeks ago.
?We?ve had a pretty significant falloff,? said Dr. Keith English, chief of infectious diseases at Le Bonheur.
He and other health officials say visits to local doctors? offices for the flu also have declined.
But far from being an indication the epidemic is over, the lull probably suggests only that the second wave of cases ? one that began when schools reopened in August ? has crested, English and other experts say. The first wave occurred as the H1N1 initially spread across the nation during the spring.
?I would not at all be lured into any sense of comfort that we have passed a crisis stage,? said Dr. Kenneth S. Robinson, health officer for Shelby County.
Despite the local trend, there is little evidence yet that the epidemic is diminishing on a national scale. The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has reported that visits to physicians? offices for flu-like symptoms have continued to increase and hospitalization rates for confirmed flu cases remain high across most of the U.S.
The recent outbreak has proved deadly in Shelby County. Since late August, three children ? two 12-year-olds and a 13-year-old ? have died, and 200 more were admitted to Le Bonheur, of whom 26 went to the intensive-care unit.
By September, so many people were filling the hospital?s emergency room that Le Bonheur erected a large tent in a parking lot to screen flu patients.
In recent weeks, the number of people seen by the hospital?s emergency department has fallen from a peak of more than 400 daily to around 200. And while as many as 10 kids were being admitted daily to Le Bonheur for H1N1, only two to three are now, said English, who also is a professor of pediatrics at the University of Tennessee Health Science Center.
The initial shipments of vaccine this month ? including the 3,000 doses of injectable vaccine and 500 doses of Flu Mist vaccine that arrived this week ? probably have not been a factor in the decline in H1N1 cases. The vaccine so far ?hasn?t been widely used enough? to account for the improvement, English said.
Because flu viruses tend to circulate more during the winter, health officials say a third wave of H1N1 cases could start soon.
?It could come back in November, December and January and be even more severe,? English said.
Dr. John DeVincenzo, professor of pediatrics and molecular sciences at UT and clinical director of the virology lab at Le Bonheur, said H1N1 is less likely to ?peter out? than the seasonal flu.
Until at least one-fourth to one-third of local residents are immune to the virus ? either from having contracted it or from vaccination ? the area can expect to see ?sustained epidemic activity,? DeVincenzo said.
http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2009/oct/29/despite-significant-falloff-doctors-expect-swine-f/
For now, however, local statistics on the epidemic show a sharp drop. At Le Bonheur Children?s Medical Center, weekly positive tests for H1N1 have fallen to less than one-fifth the nearly 450 reported in early September. And the emergency department is seeing barely half the patients it did six weeks ago.
?We?ve had a pretty significant falloff,? said Dr. Keith English, chief of infectious diseases at Le Bonheur.
He and other health officials say visits to local doctors? offices for the flu also have declined.
But far from being an indication the epidemic is over, the lull probably suggests only that the second wave of cases ? one that began when schools reopened in August ? has crested, English and other experts say. The first wave occurred as the H1N1 initially spread across the nation during the spring.
?I would not at all be lured into any sense of comfort that we have passed a crisis stage,? said Dr. Kenneth S. Robinson, health officer for Shelby County.
Despite the local trend, there is little evidence yet that the epidemic is diminishing on a national scale. The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has reported that visits to physicians? offices for flu-like symptoms have continued to increase and hospitalization rates for confirmed flu cases remain high across most of the U.S.
The recent outbreak has proved deadly in Shelby County. Since late August, three children ? two 12-year-olds and a 13-year-old ? have died, and 200 more were admitted to Le Bonheur, of whom 26 went to the intensive-care unit.
By September, so many people were filling the hospital?s emergency room that Le Bonheur erected a large tent in a parking lot to screen flu patients.
In recent weeks, the number of people seen by the hospital?s emergency department has fallen from a peak of more than 400 daily to around 200. And while as many as 10 kids were being admitted daily to Le Bonheur for H1N1, only two to three are now, said English, who also is a professor of pediatrics at the University of Tennessee Health Science Center.
The initial shipments of vaccine this month ? including the 3,000 doses of injectable vaccine and 500 doses of Flu Mist vaccine that arrived this week ? probably have not been a factor in the decline in H1N1 cases. The vaccine so far ?hasn?t been widely used enough? to account for the improvement, English said.
Because flu viruses tend to circulate more during the winter, health officials say a third wave of H1N1 cases could start soon.
?It could come back in November, December and January and be even more severe,? English said.
Dr. John DeVincenzo, professor of pediatrics and molecular sciences at UT and clinical director of the virology lab at Le Bonheur, said H1N1 is less likely to ?peter out? than the seasonal flu.
Until at least one-fourth to one-third of local residents are immune to the virus ? either from having contracted it or from vaccination ? the area can expect to see ?sustained epidemic activity,? DeVincenzo said.
http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2009/oct/29/despite-significant-falloff-doctors-expect-swine-f/
