tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Emerg Infect Dis. 2013 Apr;19(4):616-22. doi: 10.3201/eid1904.120103.
Deaths associated with influenza pandemic of 1918-19, Japan.
Chandra S.
Abstract
Current estimates of deaths from the influenza pandemic of 1918-19 in Japan are based on vital records and range from 257,000 to 481,000. The resulting crude death rate range of 0.47%-0.88% is considerably lower than parallel and conservative worldwide estimates of 1.66%-2.77%. Because the accuracy of vital registration records for early 20th century Asia is questionable, to calculate the percentage of the population who died from the pandemic, we used alternative prefecture-level population count data for Japan in combination with estimation methods for panel data that were not available to earlier demographers. Our population loss estimates of 1.97-2.02 million are appreciably higher than the standing estimates, and they yield a crude rate of population loss of 3.62%-3.71%. This rate resolves a major puzzle about the pandemic by indicating that the experience of Japan was similar to that of other parts of Asia.
KEYWORDS:
1918, 1918?19, Japan, deaths, influenza viruses, pandemic, viruses
PMID:
23631838
[PubMed - in process]
Free full text
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23631838
Deaths associated with influenza pandemic of 1918-19, Japan.
Chandra S.
Abstract
Current estimates of deaths from the influenza pandemic of 1918-19 in Japan are based on vital records and range from 257,000 to 481,000. The resulting crude death rate range of 0.47%-0.88% is considerably lower than parallel and conservative worldwide estimates of 1.66%-2.77%. Because the accuracy of vital registration records for early 20th century Asia is questionable, to calculate the percentage of the population who died from the pandemic, we used alternative prefecture-level population count data for Japan in combination with estimation methods for panel data that were not available to earlier demographers. Our population loss estimates of 1.97-2.02 million are appreciably higher than the standing estimates, and they yield a crude rate of population loss of 3.62%-3.71%. This rate resolves a major puzzle about the pandemic by indicating that the experience of Japan was similar to that of other parts of Asia.
KEYWORDS:
1918, 1918?19, Japan, deaths, influenza viruses, pandemic, viruses
PMID:
23631838
[PubMed - in process]
Free full text
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23631838