daily case counts

[gsgs]

daily new reported cases outside North America 02.May -
130=11,08,33,24,18,18,18,
157=33,15,34,10,40,07,18,
454=17,30,141,47,67,72,80,
749=66,000,117,106,77,(229),(154),
2248=(324),0,318,322,288,265,731
4429=176,186,472,1102,404,797,1292

daily new Mexican cases, grouped by weeks :
956=241,109,084,000,232,290,000
1334=252,236,026,433,000,387,000
1446=431,018,208,545,000,244,000
(1018)=000,000,282,000,367,(369),000
807=119,000,000,000,431,103,154
686=000,000+000+000+416+108+162

daily new cases in USA, grouped by weeks: 032,019,
2062=066+060+117+239+254+743+583
2475=310+068+409+343+946+399+000
1838=000+409+346+241+054+788+000
2897=000+208+000+1163+000+1526+000
3097=003+597+344+657+1237+259+000
4264=151+879+728+1242+501+1804-1041


daily new cases in Canada
208=036+015+055+025+036+013+028
248=033+009+046+028+031+060+041
229=006+000+000+000+223+000+000
(399)=000+000+000+086+116+000+(197)
677=000+218+000+000+194+000+265
1183=000+320+000+000+331+000+532
xxxx=000+537+000

total, daily new cases grouped by week: 035+080
1899=131+284+172+198+139+392+583
5421=285+1056+1254+557+477+769+1023
4502=880+429+1001+413+791+134+854
5679=000+493+439+444+(1962)+150+2191
7145=0000+0321+1126+1063+1308+2002+1325
10810=176+337+1692+2246+2194+905+3260
.....=413+

weekly
Mex:956,1334,1446,1018,807,686
USA:2062,2475,1838,2897,3097,4264
CDN:208,248,229,399,677,1183
xN.A.:130,157,454,749,2248
world:1899+5421+4502+5679+7145+10810

 

[gsgs]

Re: daily case counts

weekly new cases:

Mex: 956,1334,1446,1018, 807, 686,(1700)
USA:2062,2475,1838,2897,3097,4264,(4200)   --(4700update)
CDN: 208, 248, 229, 399, 677,1183,2081
xNA: 130, 157, 454, 749,2248,4429,(6600)   --(8000update)
all:1899,5421,4502,5679,7145,10810,(14000)  --(14700update)

-------------------------------------------

xNA: outside North America (where they are still testing a lot)

http://www.setbb.com/fluwiki2/viewt...97e3c5df2fc4c4a1275d652a8d72f&mforum=fluwiki2

 

[JimO]

Re: daily case counts

All these trend graphs suggest a leveling off in new cases; however, fewer tests are being conducted, so it's hard to determine whether there are fewer cases or simply less testing.

 

[The Mountains Voice]

Re: daily case counts

All these trend graphs suggest a leveling off in new cases; however, fewer tests are being conducted, so it's hard to determine whether there are fewer cases or simply less testing.

I think when you compare the fact that they have indeed reduced testing, and factor in some of the more steep curves we see in Death & Hospitalization cases - I'd go with the Death / Hospitalization charts for guidance 1st.

 

[gsgs]

Re: daily case counts

testing in Europe is increasing, not decreasing

 

[The Mountains Voice]

Re: daily case counts

I think when you compare the fact that they have indeed reduced testing, and factor in some of the more steep curves we see in Death & Hospitalization cases - I'd go with the Death / Hospitalization charts for guidance 1st.

I didn't see the death line in this one, and it is throwing me off. I'm still trying to wrap my mind around this data / chart comparison.

I'm not a chart guy - so I might be wrong. But the "Horizontal TIMELINE" is set at nice even 2 day intervals.

But the "Vertical CASE COUNT" line is increasing exponentially. Is this giving us a really representative visual of the increases? Shouldn't the vertical axis of CASES be a standard interval number to truly graph the increase rate?

Sorry - Like I said - I'm not a chart guy - but everything I know / have seen doesn't match up with what the chart is implying. ????

Sorry GS - Great Job! I know this stuff takes time - maybe it's just me being stupid.

 

[gsgs]

Re: daily case counts

horizontal is just weekly , I might include circles between the lines
to mark the data-points

vertical is exponential - else you won't fit the different curves
in one chart


------------------------
confirmed new cases per week (not cumulative)

 

[JimO]

Re: daily case counts

I missed that this was a semi-log plot. My mistake. It doesn't look like we've reached the peak of the first wave in the northern hemisphere yet.

 

[gsgs]

Re: daily case counts

testing in America is down, but "others" are apparantly still testing a lot.
Now, how can deaths grow so much slower ?

Is the virus becoming less virulent ?
Are they more and more reporting deaths due to 2009flu as deaths from
other causes ? (worldwide)

 

[gsgs]

Re: daily case counts

> FRIDAY, May 15 (HealthDay News) -- While the official tally of confirmed U.S. swine flu cases
> topped 4,700 on Friday, experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now estimate
> the true number of infections at more than 100,000 nationwide.

in countries where they still test, the number of confirmed cases redoubles every 8 days

assuming that growth rate and the 100000 cases in USA by 15.May :
43 days since May 15 - this would give 4.1M cases in USA now

however the ILI-data suggests another picture.
According to CDC, ILI peaked on ~26.May. Assume new infections
are constant since then, we get 260000 on 26 May
and 130000 each 8 days for a total of ~1M infected so far
most of which had already recovered.
Assuming 8 days per infection we would have 130000
currently infected in USA by that calculation

 

[hongkonger]

Re: daily case counts

I think the ILI peaked on May 26th because that was at the height of the public panic over swine flu and more people who were sick were seeing doctors. The daily number of cases since then probably has risen exponentially, but people are more relaxed and getting diagnosed less often.

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: daily case counts

. . . The daily number of cases since then probably has risen exponentially, but people are more relaxed and getting diagnosed less often.

I am not sure about people being more relaxed, but it is certainly true that fewer and fewer people are being tested so fewer are diagnosed with H1N1.

 

[gsgs]

Re: daily case counts

26.May was the peak in New York. Obviously immunity in school-kids
stopped it, it ran out of easy victims.
Most US-cases were in NY.

Now, looking at the graph above (post 1), it seems that the deaths-curve
is getting steeper since 20.June

 

[cartski]

Re: daily case counts

Declaring Level 6 has ended the debate over the development and reporting of new cases. Over time, everyone is likely to get some variant of the virus.

The issue now is severity. It's a pandemic: but is it mild or severe?

If the logarythmic scale were removed, the graph would be more dramatic, and the slope change of the death-curve more evident.

Isn't this a regression problem? In other words, could not regression determine the point where there is a slope change that is, statistically, not due to chance?

J.

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: daily case counts

Declaring Level 6 has ended the debate over the development and reporting of new cases. Over time, everyone is likely to get some variant of the virus.

The issue now is severity. It's a pandemic: but is it mild or severe?

If the logarythmic scale were removed, the graph would be more dramatic, and the slope change of the death-curve more evident.

Isn't this a regression problem? In other words, could not regression determine the point where there is a slope change that is, statistically, not due to chance?

J.

Yes, if we had any faith in the numbers.

 

[liam]

Re: daily case counts

Some excellent graphic representations I just ran across.

http://www.peterosborn.com/pandemic.htm

 

[gsgs]

Re: daily case counts

we have the first week with declining official case-counts now:


wiki04.June,09:11,93476,10894,30916,776,7447,42418,8971,1517,5254
wiki11.July,13:10,113383,11699,34121,1034,9718,57569,9717,2273,8006


weekly new cases:

Mex: 956,1334,1446,1018, 807,  686, 1221,  1285, 1985,  805
USA:2062,2475,1838,2897,3097, 4264, 4251,  5316, 4781, 3205
CDN: 208, 248, 229, 399, 677, 1183, 2081,  2065, 1196,  746
xNA: 130, 157, 454, 749,2248, 4429, 8033, 10909,15440,15151
all:1899,5421,4502,5679,7145,10810,14743, 19620,23457,19907

weekly

Canada ILI: http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/fluwatch/08-09/w26_09/figures/2009-w26-fg3-eng.gif
USA ILI : http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/images/image262.gif