Comparison of P&I deaths week 38 2005-2009

[Ronan Kelly]

Comparison of pneumonia and Influenza deaths as a percentage of total for week 38 2005-2009.

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwrpvol.html

Year - P&I deaths - total deaths - %P&I
2005 - 607 -------- 10,480 -------5.79%
2006 - 602 -------- 11,183 -------5.38%
2007 - 636 -------- 10,846 -------5.86%
2008 - 615 -------- 10,501 -------5.86%
2009 - 658 -------- 10,743 -------6.12%

 

[Commonground]

Re: Comparison of P&I deaths week 38 2005-2009

excellent! Something we can compare with.

 

[Dark Horse]

Re: Comparison of P&I deaths week 38 2005-2009

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't the numbers from 2005 through 2008 generated by the same modeling program that gives us 36,000 deaths per year from ILI? If so, we would be comparing a computer model allocation to a real number of deaths in 2009.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Comparison of P&I deaths week 38 2005-2009

???

those are real deaths, of course.
Each death is assigned one cause, so it is counted exactly once

 

[Commonground]

Re: Comparison of P&I deaths week 38 2005-2009

...numbers from 2005 through 2008 generated by the same modeling program that gives us 36,000 deaths per year from ILI?

I don't know about a computer modeling program that generates numbers.

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Comparison of P&I deaths week 38 2005-2009

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't the numbers from 2005 through 2008 generated by the same modeling program that gives us 36,000 deaths per year from ILI? If so, we would be comparing a computer model allocation to a real number of deaths in 2009.

The MMWR is generated by an actual count of fatalities in 122 selected US cities. The extrapolation occurs afterward. As a result the MMWR fatalities are not the total for the entire country.

Which leads to a second point, The P&I deaths reported on the weekly update was 443. I have seen elsewhere on the internets commentators suggesting that the weekly update numbers reflect numbers from all causes not just flu deaths. It would seem however that the CDC is only posting a subset of the total P&I deaths in the weekly update suggesting that these deaths are only flu related.

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Comparison of P&I deaths week 38 2005-2009

Week - MMWR reported P&I - Situation Report P&I
35 -----------519-----------------196
36 -----------541-----------------168
37 -----------683-----------------572
38 -----------658-----------------443

Big jump in week 37 (ending Sep 25) in the MMWR. The Situation report P&I does not record all P&I.