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Cold summer - early migration???

AlaskaDenise

AlaskaDenise

In Memoriam
We've had an incredibly cold & wet summer here.

There was snow on the Anchorage foothills on June 21st and now it happened again on July 23rd.

This may change the migration pattern on birds headed both to the Americas and Asia.

So any seemly untimely influenza changes may be due to early southward migration.

.
 
Re: Cold summer - early migration???

The Pacific Northwest has experienced cooler-than-normal temperatures in the first half of the summer due to:

Strengthening cool phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation (arriving years later than expected) and

Moderate La Nina ENSO that has not faded as expected (forecast January 2008).

I suspect that the Anchorage locality weather is effected by the cooling gases (including substantial water vapor) and ash emissions from Cleveland and Okmok, traveling E/SE.

I checked weather conditions across Canada; while cool, they aren't cold enough to be considered abnormal. Ironically, they are well within typical range for longterm seasonal temperatures, but stand out when compared to recent warmer-than-normal regional weather trends (1980-present).
 
Re: Cold summer - early migration???

There were a few geese on the Assiniboine river, in Winnipeg, yesterday evening. Not many, but it's unusual to hear any flying over and landing at this time of year. Usually it's pelicans flying south from Lockport, the local dam on the Red River, alighting near an island on the Assiniboine, and floating leisurely downstream and then flying up again 20 minutes later. But no sign of them this year, yet.

In the Experimental Lakes, near Vermillion Bay in Ontario where we just returned from a canoe trip, there were lots of loons - a congregation of 10 at one point, and 2 families of ducks (mreganzers ?), and some hawks (?) cherping like mad for dinner in the tops of a tree.

Hasn't there been reports of the ice cap receding dramatically in Greenland lately, which might also change migration patterns on that side of the globe?

J.
 
Re: Cold summer - early migration???

I have decided that it depends on which scientist's theories you read. One says 'Global Warming' and another says with the lag in sun spot activity that we will be heading for a 'mini ice age' maybe or at least a cooling off period.:banghead:
 
Re: Cold summer - early migration???

During the unusual snowfalls, there has been air coming directly from the north pole - that area where the ice is supposed to be thinner and melting more. Perhaps there are some unanticipated air movement pattern changes related to less ice.

Most important - we cannot assume migratory birds will follow any traditional patterns. Too many changes. They're such masters of appropriate adaptation. :)

.
 
Re: Cold summer - early migration???

]Latest research shows that in the last 20 years climate change has affected ecosystems in the northern Bering Sea which may threaten the life of apex predators, such as gray whale, walrus, seal in that region.

The changes in the northern Bering Sea have coincided with a reduction in sea ice, and increases in air and ocean temperatures, said Cui Xuehua, a Chinese predoctoral student from University of Tennessee, U.S., who is one of the science party in the 3rd Chinese National Arctic Expedition.

According to Cui, the northern Bering Sea is one of the richest areas in the global ocean.

The ecosystem has been significant food source for many species of fish but it has been degenerating due to climate change.

The food sources are decreasing and the functions are being interrupted, Cui said.

She said a 20-year-long research project by the U.S. showed that the benthic stock, such as crustaceans and worms, at the beginning of the 21st century was only 50-70 percent of that at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s.

"Declining prey items of apex predators, such as gray whale, walrus, seal in the northern Bering Sea cause them to relocate the primary foraging area northward, threatening their habitat and survival," Cui said. China launched its third scientific expedition to the North Pole on July 11.

The team, with 122 scientists and logistics staff, will study the polar region's distinctive maritime resources and air quality, and also do comprehensive research on geological and meteorological conditions in the 75 days of the expedition.

http://visz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert_read.php?glide=CC-20080728-17781-NLC&cat=dis&lang=eng
 
Re: Cold summer - early migration???

Labrador - Sadie said:
I have decided that it depends on which scientist's theories you read. One says 'Global Warming' and another says with the lag in sun spot activity that we will be heading for a 'mini ice age' maybe or at least a cooling off period.:banghead:
Click to expand...
Hi Sadie,

apart the theories, believe first what you actualy see with your eyes:
the melting of ~10.000 years old ice.
That means now is warming time.

Because of the efects of warming on Earth termodynamic, more later we can espect a cooling time.
___
The sun activity are now at ~minimum, which means that it will be additionaly more warm at it's next maximum.
Of an actual global warming exist a global public statement of the vast majority relevant world scientists.
 
Re: Cold summer - early migration???

Human-induced climate change rides on top of naturally recurring patterns of solar cycle fluctuations (smallest is 80-100 yrs, longest is many thousands).

We are within ~100-150 yrs of a *major* cool-down. The next decade *may* be cooler than the previous decade (but NOT cooler than longterm trends) due to larger climate pattern shifts presently manifesting in the Northern Hemisphere (PDO and NAO), and to a lesser extent in the Southern Hemisphere (due to smaller land mass and larger modulation of terrestrial temps from Southern ocean current moderations). These shifts will partially negate anthropogenic-induced warming due to greenhouse gas emissions and reduced CO2 buffering in acidifying oceans.

Thus, human-induced global warming measurements and forecast short-term regional cooling patterns are not contradictory.
 
Re: Cold summer - early migration???

I checked with a friend who is an official loon and grebe watcher. They have 160 acres with a 40 acre lake (approx. here: http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&tab=wl )

She said the birds are clearly leaving early and had fewer young.

The Arctic Terns and Yellow Legs are gone. They normally leave in late August. There are normally many Tern babies and several Yellow Leg nests. This year she saw NO young Terns and only one Yellow Leg nest.

A few Sandhill Cranes have flown overhead - 3+ weeks early.

The Robins which would normally be eating their strawberries and gone.

There were 2 Loon seemingly nesting but there are NO young Loons following their mom around the lake. :(

There was one abandon Grebe nest she found with rotten eggs. Another nest still has a sitting Grebe, when the young should have hatched. She's see NO Grebe young.

How far these birds have gone south we don't know. They may not be starting their long migration - just relocating to a more hospitable refueling area.

There is basically no human activity around their lake. However, due to the abundance of rain (she assumes) it is considerably higher. IF the lake is higher partly due to increased beaver activity, that may influence the water nests, but not the Loons or Yellow Legs nests.

There are only 2 Asian migrants in this area - Northern Wheatear and Arctic Warbler. The Wheatears stay in the higher altitudes and I don't know if the Warblers have left.

.
 
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