China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that deaths from A/H1N1 are "far higher" than SARS

[sharon sanders]

Zhong Nanshan: A current SARS death rate higher than the



At 06:50 on January 20, 2010

Zhong Nanshan, China Academy of Engineering, recently said it has restricted reference materials to write a letter to the State Council, urged the streamlining <!--keyword--><!--/keyword-->

甲流​

A stream <!--keyword--><!--/keyword-->

重症救助机制。​

Severe rescue mechanism.

他说：?我强烈呼吁国家对重症患者应有特殊政策给予支持和救助。因为在全国不少省都有​

He said: "I strongly urge the countries to critically ill patients should have special policies to provide support and assistance. Because in many provinces across the country have <!--keyword--><!--/keyword-->

甲流​

A stream <!--keyword--><!--/keyword-->

重症患者因经济困难而导致治疗困难的情况。​

Severe illness due to financial difficulties caused by the treatment of difficult situations.

?​

"

另外，近日，国外有人宣称，甲流本性温和，死亡率不高。​

In addition, recently, some people abroad claim that A gentle flow of nature, the mortality rate is not high.

对于该说法，钟南山院士予以抨击。​

For this argument to be attacked academician Zhong Nanshan.

他说：?现在有些看法认为甲流（危害性）好像夸大其词，我不是太同意。因为去年8、9、10、11月，（甲流）比季节性流感的发病率高很多，（全世界因甲流）病死的人现在是1万多人，在中国是接近700人，病死率高，远远高于SARS。?​

He said:



"At present, some view a stream (harm) seems exaggerated, I do not agree with. Because last year 8,9,10,11 months, (a flow) than the incidence of seasonal influenza is much higher (the world's a result of a stream) who died more than 10000 is now in China is close to 700 people, a high fatality rate, far higher than SARS. "

他表示，80%的人注射甲流疫苗后会产生抗体，而且目前观察副作用很小，所以很赞成外来工接种疫苗。​

He said that 80% of the injected A stream will produce antibodies after vaccination, and the current observed side effects are minor, so very much in favor of foreign workers vaccinated.

据广州日报​

According to Guangzhou Daily

http://news.qq.com/a/20100120/000381.htm

 

[alert]

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

The quote in the title of the thread is a bit misleading - he is not saying that the CFR of H1N1 is higher than that of SARS, he is saying that the total number of deaths is far higher. And on that count, he is correct.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

"A current SARS death rate higher..."

and

"...a high fatality rate, far higher than SARS. "...

 

[alert]

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

I wonder if the translator isn't fooling us - and CFR is case fatality RATIO, not RATE anyway. But SARS had a CFR of at least 10% (and 16-18% in Hong Kong and Toronto), so there is no way H1N1 has a higher CFR than SARS.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

from another source -


Academician Zhong Nanshan, yesterday said it has restricted reference materials to write a letter to the State Council, urged the streamlining of severe influenza A rescue mechanism.

钟南山认为，重症患者救治经费应该由国家出。​

Zhong Nanshan, that the treatment of critically ill patients should be funded by the state out.

钟南山是针对广东出现的甲流感重症男婴被抛弃事件作出如上表示的。​

Zhong Nanshan, Guangdong appeared against influenza A baby boy was abandoned with severe events indicated above.

昨天，卫生部负责人表示，重症病例救治费用可通过医保报销等多种形式解决。​

Yesterday, the Ministry of Health official said that severe cases where the costs could be reimbursed by medical insurance and other forms to solve.

同日，钟南山还对国外有人宣称?甲流感本性温和，死亡率不高?的说法予以抨击。​

On the same day, Zhong Nanshan was also abroad, declared that "the nature of influenza A mild, the mortality rate is not high" was to be attacked.

他指出，在全球范围内，甲流死亡率比SARS高，不能不防。​

He noted that in a global context, a current SARS death rate higher than that, can not prevent.

新快报供稿​

New Express feeds

?欧盟要调查世卫?证实是翻译错误​

"EU to investigate the WHO," proved to be a translation error

最近，国内一些媒体报道了?欧盟理事会通过对世界卫生组织应对甲流感的过程是否与药商利益有关展开调查的议案?。​

Recently, domestic media reports that the "the EU Council adopted the WHO response to influenza A process for the interests of drug manufacturers with an investigation relating to the motion."

而 欧盟委员会公共卫生事务发言人昨天表示，?第一次听到此事。?她说，?有人把欧盟理事会和欧洲委员会两个机构搞混了。欧洲委员会不是欧盟的机构，欧盟与欧 洲委员会没有任何关系。?经核查，欧洲委员会（CouncilofEurope）是1949年5月成立的一个政治性组织，目前有47个成员国。​

And the European Commission spokesman for health affairs, said yesterday that "the first time to hear the matter." She said, "Some of the EU Council and the European Commission confused the two institutions. The European Commission is not the EU's institutions, the European Union and the European Commission, there is no relationship. "After verification, the European Commission (CouncilofEurope) was established in May 1949 a political organization, currently has 47 member states.

而欧洲理事会则是欧盟的最高决策机构。​

The Council of Europe is the EU's highest decision-making body.

http://health.people.com.cn/GB/10806392.html

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

another source -

snip

Recently, some people abroad claim that A gentle flow of nature, the mortality rate is not high.

对于该说法，钟南山指出，在全球范围内，甲流死亡率比SARS高，不能不防。​

For this argument, Zhong Nanshan pointed out that in a global context, a current SARS death rate higher than that, can not prevent.


http://health.66wz.com/system/2010/01/19/101639760.shtml

 

[alert]

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

That's how I read what he said - the rate of occurrence of deaths (deaths/time) is higher than SARS. Not the CFR (deaths/cases).

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

In general Nanshan has been warning about the pandemic and not to become complacent - this from 3 weeks ago -

Video: Zhong Nanshan said the weaker the epidemic is too early to determine a flow

http://www.sina.com.cn 2009年12月21日12:23


Last week, a more gentle flow of the epidemic, as of Wednesday, Guangzhou City has not received a report with the aggregation of the epidemic.

钟南山院士提醒，不能够有所放松，随着气温下降，甲流疫情可能会进一步发展。​

Academician Zhong Nanshan, reminders, can not be relaxed, as the temperature dropped, a stream may be further development of the epidemic.

12月21日深圳卫视《正午30分》播出以上节目视频。​

December 21, Shenzhen Satellite TV, "High Noon 30 minutes" program broadcast on more than video.

http://video.sina.com.cn/news/c/v/2010-01-19/102052623.shtml

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

I wonder if the translator isn't fooling us - and CFR is case fatality RATIO, not RATE anyway. But SARS had a CFR of at least 10% (and 16-18% in Hong Kong and Toronto), so there is no way H1N1 has a higher CFR than SARS.

I agree with alert. The translator is incorrectly using the concept of CFR. According to WHO data, China had a CFR of about 10% for SARS with a total of about 648 SARS deaths (including Hong Kong).

see: http://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/index.html

Currently 737 deaths are attributable to H1N1 in China as of today.

see: http://english1.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90782/90880/6874613.html

With over 120,000 H1N1 infections. See: http://health.yahoo.com/news/afp/healthfluchina_20100104101501.html

The CFR for H1N1 in China may be around .6%

What is clear that the absolute number of H1N1 deaths is going to exceed the number of deaths from SARS in China.

 

[adrianmonksfan]

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that the death rate from A/H1N1 is "far higher" than SARS

Most likely, the reference is to a rate in terms of number of deaths / population.

The European Union is made by 27 members states:
http://europa.eu/about-eu/institutions-bodies/index_en.htm

Among the EU bodies there is a Council of the European Union, which is not the Council of Europe. The Council of Europe is not a EU body. It includes all European states:
http://www.coe.int/DefaultEN.asp

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that deaths from A/H1N1 are "far higher" than SARS

It is an interesting debate. I have adjusted the title of the thread but -

if the total number of infections in the US are as high as 80,000,000 out of 310,000,000 then China with a population of 1,335,007,550

has had, in actuality, approximately as many as 344,000,000 infections.

...and they are officially saying 120,000 infections.

If they have only 737 deaths out of 344,000,000 possible infections then I think they should inform the world as to the miraculous treatments that they are using.

 

[alert]

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that deaths from A/H1N1 are "far higher" than SARS

Thank you for the thread title change.

And that brings us back to one of the questions that has haunted me for the past seven years - why did SARS have a much lower mortality rate in China than in the rest of the world? It raises the specter that Chinese medicine might know some secrets for treating severe respiratory cases, but one would think that Hong Kong would use such treatments as well, and Hong Kong, with 299 fatalities in 1,755 probable SARS cases had one of the highest fatality rates in the world. So that seems unlikely.

Some of the discrepancy is due to the inclusion of non-SARS (i.e. seasonal flu) cases in mainland China's official counts by error. One 2003 article estimates that 1,000 of Beijing's 2,400+ SARS cases actually had flu (and Niman points out that one of them actually had H5N1!). If you discard flu cases, you reduce China's total cse count, increasing the CFR. But China already reported a low number of SARS cases to begin with (a little over 5,300). If a significant number of them did not really have SARS, it would be tough to believe the entire country of China only had 3,000-4,000 SARS cases in six months when Hong Kong had 1,755 in three months.

Some of the discrepancy might be due to exactly who gets ill (Toronto, Singapore, and Hong Kong had a lot of hospital based spread, where people who were already severely ill with other conditions contracted SARS in the hospital and died), and some of the discrepancy might be due to retrospective counting of China's cases as compared to counting on the fly in other places. There might be a temptation to accuse China of fudging the numbers, but the data on the 1,500 Guangdong SARS cases seems a little too detailed and consistent to be forged.

But I really can't think of a good explanation for this puzzle.

 

[Vibrant62]

Re: China - Zhong Nanshan urges vaccination saying that deaths from A/H1N1 are "far higher" than SARS

Perhaps I am just a cynic, but I personally believe that the official numbers from China will be undercounted - just as H1N1 deaths have been in other countires around the globe, for a wide variety of internal domestic and political reasons that will differ country by country.

In the past there has been considerable incentive for officials to downplay numbers wherever possible in China; it has to be remembered that in China failure to 'do ones duty' can be punishable by imprisonment or worse - i.e not just losing one's job.

However, to be fair to China, there have been equally strident pronouncements to officials internally in recent weeks for officials to be transparent and report numbers and cases more openly, with dire consequences promised for failure to do so. Thus whilst reporting is now more open, it is equally unlikely that individuals will step forward with revised data for any historical dates.