sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
The price of pigs has fallen and the feed has risen. Can "Second Brothers" be able to raise them?
In September 2020, Tao Yishan, Chairman of Tang Renshen (002567.SZ), said in an interview with China Economic Weekly: “It has long been predicted that by 2022, domestic meat prices will fall to 10 yuan. I am even more pessimistic. By then, it is entirely possible for the price of meat to fall to 4-5 yuan."
This became the "five-element theory of pig price" that caused a public outcry at the time. You know, at that time, domestic pork prices were running at a high level in the range of 50-60 yuan/kg.
When the time came to June 2021, Tao Yishan's words became true. At the beginning of June this year, the wholesale price of some domestic pork fell below 10 yuan per catty, and the plummeting pork price does not seem to be far away from 5 yuan per catty.
While the price of pork has fallen, the price of feed has risen. In early June, a number of mainstream feed companies issued price increases notices, among which the new round of pig feed price increases were mostly RMB 75/ton.
Under the double impact of falling pork prices and rising feed prices, pig farming companies have had a hard time. Take Muyuan Co., Ltd. (002714.SZ), known as "Pig in Maotai" as an example. In the first quarter of this year, the company's operating income was 20.152 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 1.5 times, but its net profit dropped by nearly 70%; and its share price has been since the Spring Festival. Since the callback has been close to 40%, today's closing price is 56.18 yuan per share, the latest market value of 295.6 billion yuan.
Muyuan shares stock price
Pork prices fell for 20 consecutive weeks
The slaughter price of live pigs fell off the cliff
As the recovery of live pig production accelerates and market supply continues to increase, pork prices across the country have entered a downward channel, which has fallen for 20 consecutive weeks. The latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that in the third week of June, the national live pig price was 15.13 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 6.8% from last week and a year-on-year decrease of 50.9%.
According to data from the industry website China Pig.com, the price of live pigs has also reached a new low again. On June 23, live pigs (external three yuan) were reported at 12.67 yuan/kg; live pigs (internal three yuan) were reported at 12.28 yuan/kg; live pigs (traditional pigs) were reported at 11.85 yuan/kg. Pork price chart
According to statistics from the Livestock and Poultry Breeding Association of Meizhou City, Guangdong Province, the price of live pigs has continued to fall from 17 yuan to 18 yuan per catty in December 2020 to about 8 yuan per catty today. There has been a "cliff-breaking" decline, a drop of nearly half. . Affected by the general rise in commodities in recent times, the price of pig feed has increased significantly compared with before. Now the cost price of live pigs for slaughter has also risen from the previous 6 yuan/jin to 9 yuan/jin. In other words, the price of slaughter pigs has fallen below the breakeven point.
To this end, the China Animal Husbandry Association issued a proposal to pig breeding companies on June 20.
The proposal warned everyone that although pork prices have been confirmed to enter a downward channel, and the loss rate of pig breeding in May reached 9.7%, all companies should pay more attention to the official pig production and market data, and follow the normal production plan in an orderly manner. . As long as the cost is controlled and the market is not good, you can make money. Don't panic at this time, let alone listen to rumors and arrange production with a gambling mentality.
zhttps://new.qq.com/omn/20210624/20210624A0B89E00.html
In September 2020, Tao Yishan, Chairman of Tang Renshen (002567.SZ), said in an interview with China Economic Weekly: “It has long been predicted that by 2022, domestic meat prices will fall to 10 yuan. I am even more pessimistic. By then, it is entirely possible for the price of meat to fall to 4-5 yuan."
This became the "five-element theory of pig price" that caused a public outcry at the time. You know, at that time, domestic pork prices were running at a high level in the range of 50-60 yuan/kg.
When the time came to June 2021, Tao Yishan's words became true. At the beginning of June this year, the wholesale price of some domestic pork fell below 10 yuan per catty, and the plummeting pork price does not seem to be far away from 5 yuan per catty.
While the price of pork has fallen, the price of feed has risen. In early June, a number of mainstream feed companies issued price increases notices, among which the new round of pig feed price increases were mostly RMB 75/ton.
Under the double impact of falling pork prices and rising feed prices, pig farming companies have had a hard time. Take Muyuan Co., Ltd. (002714.SZ), known as "Pig in Maotai" as an example. In the first quarter of this year, the company's operating income was 20.152 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 1.5 times, but its net profit dropped by nearly 70%; and its share price has been since the Spring Festival. Since the callback has been close to 40%, today's closing price is 56.18 yuan per share, the latest market value of 295.6 billion yuan.
Muyuan shares stock price
Pork prices fell for 20 consecutive weeks
The slaughter price of live pigs fell off the cliff
As the recovery of live pig production accelerates and market supply continues to increase, pork prices across the country have entered a downward channel, which has fallen for 20 consecutive weeks. The latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that in the third week of June, the national live pig price was 15.13 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 6.8% from last week and a year-on-year decrease of 50.9%.
According to data from the industry website China Pig.com, the price of live pigs has also reached a new low again. On June 23, live pigs (external three yuan) were reported at 12.67 yuan/kg; live pigs (internal three yuan) were reported at 12.28 yuan/kg; live pigs (traditional pigs) were reported at 11.85 yuan/kg. Pork price chart
According to statistics from the Livestock and Poultry Breeding Association of Meizhou City, Guangdong Province, the price of live pigs has continued to fall from 17 yuan to 18 yuan per catty in December 2020 to about 8 yuan per catty today. There has been a "cliff-breaking" decline, a drop of nearly half. . Affected by the general rise in commodities in recent times, the price of pig feed has increased significantly compared with before. Now the cost price of live pigs for slaughter has also risen from the previous 6 yuan/jin to 9 yuan/jin. In other words, the price of slaughter pigs has fallen below the breakeven point.
To this end, the China Animal Husbandry Association issued a proposal to pig breeding companies on June 20.
The proposal warned everyone that although pork prices have been confirmed to enter a downward channel, and the loss rate of pig breeding in May reached 9.7%, all companies should pay more attention to the official pig production and market data, and follow the normal production plan in an orderly manner. . As long as the cost is controlled and the market is not good, you can make money. Don't panic at this time, let alone listen to rumors and arrange production with a gambling mentality.
zhttps://new.qq.com/omn/20210624/20210624A0B89E00.html