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The peak of the second round of infections will come in March-May? Two groups of people may be greatly affected!
2023-02-04 20:58 Author of Sina.com Luzhong.com
36
In the past Spring Festival, the epidemic did not rebound significantly. With the emergence of Omicron mutant strains CH.1.1, XBB.1.5, BQ.1.1, BQ.1, and XBB, everyone is very concerned about the possible second wave of infection peaks. Recently, the topic of "the peak of the second round of infection may be in March to May" has also been on the hot search.
Why is the peak of the second round of infections predicted to be from March to May?
Xing Mingyou, Chief Physician of the Department of Infectious Diseases, Tongji Hospital Affiliated to Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, analyzed in an interview with Changjiang Daily on January 31 that from the perspective of virology and epidemiology, the antibody level in the body will maintain after "Yangkang" The peak is relatively high in 3 to 6 months, and there is only a 2% probability of reinfection within a short period of time. However, our country has a very large population base. Starting from December last year, after another 3 to 6 months, our antibody level will gradually decline. At this time, if there is a new mutant strain of the virus, we may have clinical symptoms after reinfection. Sex is very large, and peaks are still possible.
Professor Xing Mingyou predicted that the peak of the second round of infections may come from March to May, but this time the peak may not be so obvious to the public. Due to the difference in the time of infection for everyone, and after our second infection, due to the existence of a basic antibody level, the number of people infected in the second round, the severity of infection symptoms, and the degree of time concentration will all be higher than those in the first round. much weaker.
Lu Mengji, a Chinese-German virologist and professor at the Institute of Virology at the University of Essen, also said in an interview with China News Weekly on February 1 that it is expected that starting from late March this year, as the immunity of the population declines, the population will be infected. The risk of infection will increase. In May and June, the epidemic changes will be very obvious, and there may be a second wave of impact by then. But whether the second wave of the epidemic will appear in March or May and June depends on whether there will be a new strain with a very strong impact.
Two groups of people may be greatly affected in the future
1. The elderly who are still recovering
Professor Lu Mengji said in an interview that many elderly people who have been infected are now in the recovery period, and many people with poor physical fitness are infected again, and the consequences may be very serious. At this stage, some high-risk groups with immunodeficiency who have not been infected may also face the impact of the next wave of epidemics.
2. People who have not yet been infected
Currently, the most affected by the epidemic is the uninfected population, estimated at 15% to 20%. Compared with the previous situation where the entire population was susceptible, the degree of impact has been reduced. However, given the population base of our country, the scale of the population involved is still very large.
what can we do? do two things
Everyone should be the first person responsible for their own health, maintain social distance, and develop good hygiene habits. To a large extent, infection and secondary infection can still be prevented.
1. Maintain the habit of wearing a mask
Professor Xing Mingyou reminded in an interview that wearing masks must be regulated, especially in public places with dense crowds. It is sufficient for ordinary people to wear medical surgical masks for routine travel. In some high-risk positions and environments, the probability of infection increases and N95 masks need to be worn.
2. Priority vaccination for three groups of people
Professor Xing Mingyou said in an interview that six months after "Yangkang", the antibodies produced after the first infection have disappeared, and it is very necessary to replant the booster vaccine at this time. After vaccination, the time of infection can be delayed, or the probability of infection can be reduced.
Three groups of people are recommended to be vaccinated first: 1. Those who work in high-risk positions such as doctors and couriers; Pneumonia appeared in the first infection, and those who had been hospitalized with severe symptoms must receive a booster vaccine 6 months after the first "Yangkang".
zhttps://k.sina.com.cn/article_2973210011_b137959b01901eeck.html?from=health
2023-02-04 20:58 Author of Sina.com Luzhong.com
36
In the past Spring Festival, the epidemic did not rebound significantly. With the emergence of Omicron mutant strains CH.1.1, XBB.1.5, BQ.1.1, BQ.1, and XBB, everyone is very concerned about the possible second wave of infection peaks. Recently, the topic of "the peak of the second round of infection may be in March to May" has also been on the hot search.
Why is the peak of the second round of infections predicted to be from March to May?
Xing Mingyou, Chief Physician of the Department of Infectious Diseases, Tongji Hospital Affiliated to Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, analyzed in an interview with Changjiang Daily on January 31 that from the perspective of virology and epidemiology, the antibody level in the body will maintain after "Yangkang" The peak is relatively high in 3 to 6 months, and there is only a 2% probability of reinfection within a short period of time. However, our country has a very large population base. Starting from December last year, after another 3 to 6 months, our antibody level will gradually decline. At this time, if there is a new mutant strain of the virus, we may have clinical symptoms after reinfection. Sex is very large, and peaks are still possible.
Professor Xing Mingyou predicted that the peak of the second round of infections may come from March to May, but this time the peak may not be so obvious to the public. Due to the difference in the time of infection for everyone, and after our second infection, due to the existence of a basic antibody level, the number of people infected in the second round, the severity of infection symptoms, and the degree of time concentration will all be higher than those in the first round. much weaker.
Lu Mengji, a Chinese-German virologist and professor at the Institute of Virology at the University of Essen, also said in an interview with China News Weekly on February 1 that it is expected that starting from late March this year, as the immunity of the population declines, the population will be infected. The risk of infection will increase. In May and June, the epidemic changes will be very obvious, and there may be a second wave of impact by then. But whether the second wave of the epidemic will appear in March or May and June depends on whether there will be a new strain with a very strong impact.
Two groups of people may be greatly affected in the future
1. The elderly who are still recovering
Professor Lu Mengji said in an interview that many elderly people who have been infected are now in the recovery period, and many people with poor physical fitness are infected again, and the consequences may be very serious. At this stage, some high-risk groups with immunodeficiency who have not been infected may also face the impact of the next wave of epidemics.
2. People who have not yet been infected
Currently, the most affected by the epidemic is the uninfected population, estimated at 15% to 20%. Compared with the previous situation where the entire population was susceptible, the degree of impact has been reduced. However, given the population base of our country, the scale of the population involved is still very large.
what can we do? do two things
Everyone should be the first person responsible for their own health, maintain social distance, and develop good hygiene habits. To a large extent, infection and secondary infection can still be prevented.
1. Maintain the habit of wearing a mask
Professor Xing Mingyou reminded in an interview that wearing masks must be regulated, especially in public places with dense crowds. It is sufficient for ordinary people to wear medical surgical masks for routine travel. In some high-risk positions and environments, the probability of infection increases and N95 masks need to be worn.
2. Priority vaccination for three groups of people
Professor Xing Mingyou said in an interview that six months after "Yangkang", the antibodies produced after the first infection have disappeared, and it is very necessary to replant the booster vaccine at this time. After vaccination, the time of infection can be delayed, or the probability of infection can be reduced.
Three groups of people are recommended to be vaccinated first: 1. Those who work in high-risk positions such as doctors and couriers; Pneumonia appeared in the first infection, and those who had been hospitalized with severe symptoms must receive a booster vaccine 6 months after the first "Yangkang".
zhttps://k.sina.com.cn/article_2973210011_b137959b01901eeck.html?from=health